Always important to note that flukes happen in both directions!
I'm very familiar with that
As a matter of fact, instead of having a random outcome I think accidents work more against than for you. In the financial markets there's the example of being in a position that goes against you just before the non-farm payroll report is released. What do you do? Take a loss? Take the gamble and wait? The worst you can do is put in an order that will -if executed- make you only one or two ticks. If the market moves in the wrong direction after the report you'll lose a lot of money, but if it goes in the right direction you will only profit by those one or two ticks. So that's not the right decision. But taking the gamble will increase the variance of your payoffs dramatically so that's no good either. Therefore the only logical thing to do is to take the loss.
It's similar to letting a position go in-play. Best is not let it go in play at all.
