UK General Election July 4th 2024 - Trading ONLY thread

[jamesedwards]

I thought it might be value when you last posted it, at a shorter price. But I struggle to see it happening now, it's just getting from bad to worse for the Tories.

I reckon it's closer to a 1-in-4 shot. It all depends on how much vote they lose to Reform and the surprise election has caught them on the hop.

Farage likely running for Parliament has ruined this bet.

No overall majority moved out to 17 as a direct result of this. Cheers Nige.

Reform most seats in from 800 to 150.

Reform >20% vote percentage in from 30 to 4.5.

[Vaz0202]

Farage odds on to win his first seat trading at 1.50. I just can’t see it

[jamesedwards]

Farage odds on to win his first seat trading at 1.50. I just can’t see it

He's chosen Clacton which was UKIP from 2014 to 2017.

[Vaz0202]

Farage odds on to win his first seat trading at 1.50. I just can’t see it

He's chosen Clacton which was UKIP from 2014 to 2017.

Held by Carswell who defected

Giles Watling has a pretty strong majority and I just can’t see Farage doing enough. He only has one message and we have heard it all before.

My guess is the price will start to drift out and it will never be this low again

[LeTiss]

Hunt, Shapps, Mordaunt, Stride, Mercer, McVey, Hart, and Keegan, who's doing a flipping good job, all projected to lose their seats.

Farage becoming Reform leader is a disaster for Penny Mordaunt. She was slight favourite with the bookmakers to retain Portsmouth North, but yesterday's news has now made her slight odds against. Clearly Reform will take many of her votes

[LeTiss]

Yes. Hunt's constituency is a very affluent area, but lots of people living in Farnham and Godalming are London commuters, so they were predominately remainers. The 2019 GE was one of very few seats where the Tory majority was slashed. Labour have no chance there. Only the Lib Dems could unseat Hunt

[sionascaig]

Was just thinking that YouGov poll was done before Farage announced his candidacy & he could easily add a few more percentage points onto Reform vote share making the Cons position, in terms of seats won, even worse than that poll predicts.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... -landslide

All in all, finding it very depressing and seems to be a case of trying to decide on the least worst option to vote for rather than getting behind any one party.

Suspect there will be a lot of "hold your nose & vote" for someone you don't like just because alternatives are so bad.

[LeTiss]

Was just thinking that YouGov poll was done before Farage announced his candidacy & he could easily add a few more percentage points onto Reform vote share making the Cons position, in terms of seats won, even worse than that poll predicts.

Farage is an extremely divisive character. However, those that like him, tend to love him, so he changes the landscape on so many betting markets.
He's actually made this more interesting!

I'm intrigued to see if he gets invited to the TV debates now he's leader of Reform, or whether Sunak and Starmer will even agree?
Regardless of one's view on Farage.....he's a superb orator, absolute box office. He will dismantle Rishi and Sir Kier in a live debate, which once again could affect the markets

[sionascaig]

I'm intrigued to see if he gets invited to the TV debates now he's leader of Reform, or whether Sunak and Starmer will even agree?
Regardless of one's view on Farage.....he's a superb orator, absolute box office. He will dismantle Rishi and Sir Kier in a live debate, which once again could affect the markets

I certainly hope he does (and not just from a trading perspective). Reform is certainly down to participate in at least one.

The only ones I can think of atm who could toast Sunak & Stammer in a debate are Flynn (SNP Westminster leader) & Farage... Ed Davey is appalling and barely bothers even to turn up at Westminster...

Having two debates with only the leaders of labour & cons participating flushes democracy (and trading) down the toilet.

[jamesedwards]

Was just thinking that YouGov poll was done before Farage announced his candidacy & he could easily add a few more percentage points onto Reform vote share making the Cons position, in terms of seats won, even worse than that poll predicts.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... -landslide

All in all, finding it very depressing and seems to be a case of trying to decide on the least worst option to vote for rather than getting behind any one party.

Suspect there will be a lot of "hold your nose & vote" for someone you don't like just because alternatives are so bad.

Odds on a Labour majority have almost halved since the Farage announcement. Farage will have known his entry would hammer the final nail into the Conservative's coffin, which makes me wonder what his long-term plan is here? I'm sure he has one.

[sionascaig]

Odds on a Labour majority have almost halved since the Farage announcement. Farage will have known his entry would hammer the final nail into the Conservative's coffin, which makes me wonder what his long-term plan is here? I'm sure he has one.

I'm sure you are right & it is 5yrs down the line having effectively taken over / merged with conservatives.

[jamesedwards]

Odds on a Labour majority have almost halved since the Farage announcement. Farage will have known his entry would hammer the final nail into the Conservative's coffin, which makes me wonder what his long-term plan is here? I'm sure he has one.

I'm sure you are right & it is 5yrs down the line having effectively taken over / merged with conservatives.

Yes, I do wonder whether he has eyes on being a future leader of the Conservatives? There's no doubt that a spanking from Reform in the election could kick-start a new right-wing approach from the next guise of the Tory party.

[Derek27]

Labour majority down to 1.07. What caused that? It wasn't the debate was it? They both made arses of themselves last night.

[jamesedwards]

Labour majority down to 1.07. What caused that? It wasn't the debate was it? They both made arses of themselves last night.

Farage entry into the election shifted 'no overall majority' from about 11 to about 20. The debate brought it back in slightly to about 18.

[sionascaig]

YouGov poll after the debate has Cons 19% & Reform 17%... Which if you add them together is pretty close to Labs 40%... (maybe even more given margin for error)

https://yougov.co.uk/elections/uk/2024