Market moves - right or wrong?

The sport of kings.
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Zenyatta
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Ferru123 wrote:
However, I'm a fan of positive thinking in the sense of saying:

'**** it. I don't know for sure if this will work, but there is limited downside and a big potential upside, so I've nothing to lose by rolling the dice.'

That's the kind of attitude that Peter credits much of his success in trading and in life with.

Jeff
The trouble is vague aphorisms can be used to retroactively argue for anything, making them useless.

Lets say I want to back something that is at a price of 4.00. I put in an order requesting 3 ticks (so I want to back at 4.30).

Soon the price drifts a little and I get matched at 4.30. Great so far. Now lets say I have a stop-loss of 7 ticks (so I'll get out if the price goes over 5.00).

The price starts drifting...damn! Still drifting, it's gone over 5.00. What should I do?

If I stop-loss for a red and then it reverses and steams in again someone can argue:

'Too negative, you should have stayed positive and not looked for problems'.

If on the other hand I 'stay positive' and don't stop-loss at 5.00, hoping the price will come back, and then it keeps drifting and drifting for a big loss, the same person can then turn around and say

'You idiot, you should have stopped out at 5.00' ! :lol:
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

There is a school of thought, which I am attracted to, that says, it's best to disregard goals - just go out there and do your best, as your performance is the only thing that you can control.

In the markets, for example, you might aim for 8 ticks per trade, but if the market is only willing to give you 7, you're going to get frustrated, and possibly trade fast and loose to get 8. Better to just cast your net open and be grateful for whatever Mother Market gives you. :)

Jeff
Naffman wrote:That's why you need multiple goals, once you achieve one, set another, and so on.
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Euler
Posts: 26457
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Zenyatta wrote:The trouble is vague aphorisms can be used to retroactively argue for anything, making them useless.

Lets say I want to back something that is at a price of 4.00. I put in an order requesting 3 ticks (so I want to back at 4.30).

Soon the price drifts a little and I get matched at 4.30. Great so far. Now lets say I have a stop-loss of 7 ticks (so I'll get out if the price goes over 5.00).

The price starts drifting...damn! Still drifting, it's gone over 5.00. What should I do?

If I stop-loss for a red and then it reverses and steams in again someone can argue:

'Too negative, you should have stayed positive and not looked for problems'.

If on the other hand I 'stay positive' and don't stop-loss at 5.00, hoping the price will come back, and then it keeps drifting and drifting for a big loss, the same person can then turn around and say

'You idiot, you should have stopped out at 5.00' ! :lol:
That's not being over optimistic that's just really bad trading.

A positive outlook it seeing something and thinking what is it that's stopping me from achieving that and actively seeking to do something about it.

If you gave me a little more information in the example you have given I'd have enough confidence to trade it.
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Euler
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Incidentally I've been reading the chimp paradox while I've got the time.

It's a good book as it lays out the structure of your mind and allows you to go inside to correct it. I'd say Zenyatta and Ferru are at either end of the scale mentioned in the book. So you would both benefit from reading it and learning to move away from the current ground you occupy and pick up better habits. I think it would help both of you become much better traders.
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Euler wrote:Incidentally I've been reading the chimp paradox while I've got the time.

It's a good book as it lays out the structure of your mind and allows you to go inside to correct it. I'd say Zenyatta and Ferru are at either end of the scale mentioned in the book.
I've listened to an audio version of much of the book.

I'm intrigued - can you elaborate please?

I was once told the following by a financial trading author, and I think there is some truth to it:

You are an over done skeptic.

At some point you have to take a risk--life is short.


Jeff
oscar123
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Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 10:18 am

I couldn't get into the chimp factor, I threw it in the bin after a few chapters, it just went on and on, repeating itself and repeating itself, yet never really telling you anything of any practical use.

I bought it around April time when the author was giving interviews telling everbody how he was largely responsible for the success of British cycling, Ronnie o Sullivan winning a tournament and Liverpools imminent premier league title! Think he was also being called in to help England win the World Cup.
oscar123
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Chimp paradox even, chimp factor sounds like a talent contest for chimps, which watching probably would have been more use to me than this book!
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

oscar123 wrote:the author was giving interviews telling everbody how he was largely responsible for the success of British cycling, Ronnie o Sullivan winning a tournament and Liverpools imminent premier league title!
Ronnie O'Sullivan himself agrees that Peters played a key role in his comeback - have a look at the review he left on Amazon.

I don't know how big a role he played in Liverpool's success last season, but Steven Gerrard speaks very highly of him.

Jeff
Iron
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The key message of the book is that we all have a part of our brain, which causes us to reach wrong conclusions, act irrationally and feel miserable - the inner chimp.

The author argues that we can't get rid of our inner chimps, but we can minimize its effects, and he gives techniques for doing so.

I think it's a sensible approach. My main criticism is that the book apparently doesn't talk about techniques like meditation and hypnosis that can help you to get rid of the chimp (to an extent).

Jeff
oscar123 wrote:Chimp paradox even, chimp factor sounds like a talent contest for chimps, which watching probably would have been more use to me than this book!
oscar123
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Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 10:18 am

I got the message, i got it after one page, then he kept on repeating it on every other page until i gave up! Just another psychology book that tells you nothing different from any of the rest.

The idea that if you can just change your mindset you can achieve whatever you want to achieve is a load of rubbish in my opinion, but it sells a lot of books.

If you really want to achieve something you have to work for it, and work hard for it, and to do that you need that win at all cost mentality. Thats what drives people to success. All sportspeople have it, they hate losing, thats what drives them to work harder and train harder than everybody else. Thats what ultimately forces people into putting in the long hours, the need to win.

You cant teach yourself that mentality, you either have it or you dont.

Ultimately its down to you, if you want to be really good at something then you need to put the hours in, no self help book is ever going to suddenly turn you into a success.
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

oscar123 wrote: The idea that if you can just change your mindset you can achieve whatever you want to achieve is a load of rubbish in my opinion, but it sells a lot of books.
There are books out there with that basic message - and, as with trading, there is a lot of bs in the self-help genre - but I think this book is different.

Peters doesn't claim that managing your inner chimp will be easy, or that you'll have overnight success. What he provides is a framework for making your mind work with you rather than against you.

Here's just one example. Years ago, when given a yellow card, Wayne Rooney would lose his rag. If he wasn't sent off, he'd be fuming about it for the rest of the game, and his play would be impacted. These days, he just takes it on the chin and refocuses. That's effective chimp management.

Jeff
oscar123
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Thats the problem with Rooney in my opinion Jeff, he needs some of that chimp back, without it, he's nowhere near as effective. He is nowhere near the player he was and is coming to the end of his career in my opinion.

It was that inner chimp and the win at all cost mentality that Wayne Rooney had that made him the player he was. Calming it has done nothing for him.

And look at Liverpool, they collapsed last year. At the one time where it actually mattered, they werent mentally strong enough! You just cant teach this stuff, especially not to footballers, they need to be chimps!

You cant just think yourself into being a winner, it doesnt work.
Iron
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I disagree.

When Rooney is playing in the zone - like he did on his United debut, when he scored a hat trick - he will have left his ego and his chimp at the door. When he is in that state, he is alert and interested only in the task at hand - not on the referee, the opposition crowd or the free kick five minutes ago that went slightly wide.

Have a look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q06YIWCR2Js

The speaker makes the case that peak performance isn't hugely affected by whether you're psyched up or chilled out. It's about whether you're in a positive state of mind. I would say that Berbatov wasn't hyped up, but his calm and focused approach made him very effective. It allowed him to act calmly when other strikers might rush and scuff the shot.

Jeff
oscar123 wrote:Thats the problem with Rooney in my opinion Jeff, he needs some of that chimp back, without it, he's nowhere near as effective.
oscar123
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He was 18 or 19 when he made his debut! Young and fearless!

I doubt it had anything to do with him being in the zone, or psychology or chimps etc, not at that age. I dont think all this psychology stuff had even been invented back then!

He only used to get angry and sent off when he wasnt winning or scoring, like most players, if he was winning, he was happy, nothing to do with any calming of the chimp, just a need to win.
Zenyatta
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Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Just found a great 'self-help' talk on YouTube which explains my own success at gambling ;)

"Darius Kazemi's XOXO talk, in which he explains how he became a successful lottery player, is a brilliant send-up of the "how I succeeded as an artist" talk."

http://boingboing.net/2014/10/28/every- ... ade-i.html
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