It will be interesting to see how they compare today and the rest of the week.
Thanks for posting your data, much appreciated!
lets move to Betdaq
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Really could do with the calls speeding up - it feels like an age to see if you have cancelled or been matched.
Summary of the afternoon races compared to last Monday:
1st column is Betfair total matched in last 10 mins.
2nd column is Betfair total converted to Betdaq method.
3rd column is Betdaq total matched in last 10 mins.
That's a total added up across all the races. There were 15 last Monday and 14 today. I'll post more detailed numbers later when the evening races complete.
Of course how this translates into what Betfair take in commission is another question, as matched amounts aren't really a reflection of people's final pnl for a race.
I guess it's encouraging to see that there's a significant movement of activity though.
1st column is Betfair total matched in last 10 mins.
2nd column is Betfair total converted to Betdaq method.
3rd column is Betdaq total matched in last 10 mins.
Code: Select all
BF BF_BD BD
11/07/2011 7,078,461 19,640,424 1,549,953
18/07/2011 4,214,233 16,673,976 2,718,445
% ratio 60% 85% 175%
Of course how this translates into what Betfair take in commission is another question, as matched amounts aren't really a reflection of people's final pnl for a race.
I guess it's encouraging to see that there's a significant movement of activity though.
Ah, forgot to mention that in-play volume is around 78% of what it was last Monday.
Unfortunately I missed those delayed Yarmouth races as they started too late and my program skipped the race. So that 78% excludes those races in the calculation.
I'm not collecting in-play data on Betdaq yet.
Unfortunately I missed those delayed Yarmouth races as they started too late and my program skipped the race. So that 78% excludes those races in the calculation.
I'm not collecting in-play data on Betdaq yet.
Hi Jeff,
I did mention that there were 15 races last Monday and 14 today
I can post average per race as well if you like. I think average can be skewed if there are a lot of races vs a day with few races though. I guess you need to look both at the total and average.
Just for you as race averages
:
I did mention that there were 15 races last Monday and 14 today
I can post average per race as well if you like. I think average can be skewed if there are a lot of races vs a day with few races though. I guess you need to look both at the total and average.
Just for you as race averages
:Code: Select all
BF BF_BD BD
11/07/2011 471,897 1,309,362 103,330
18/07/2011 301,017 1,190,998 194,175
% ratio 64% 91% 188%
Yes, that's what the numbers are roughly saying. Of course it depends on the method of calculation as if you use the Betdaq liability method Betfair has gone from 1,309,362 to 1,190,998 per race.
This is also only a tiny sample of races though. We can't really draw too many conclusions after one afternoon. I would say there's definitely a change, however how significant and how long it will last is another question.
This is also only a tiny sample of races though. We can't really draw too many conclusions after one afternoon. I would say there's definitely a change, however how significant and how long it will last is another question.
Final numbers for today if anyone's interested.
Again, for all UK/IRE horse races, 10 mins pre-off of scheduled time only.
1st col Betfair using Betfair method.
2nd col Betfair using Betdaq method.
3rd col Betdaq using Betdaq method.
Total matched across all races:
As average per race:
Based on today's races Betdaq are now turning over 17% of Betfair's total, compared with last Monday when it was 9%. Again, I need to stress this is only based on one day's data!
Here's the race breakdown:
The percentage at the end is the ratio of Betdaq vs Betfair. I'm going to update the table I posted for last Monday in that old post to include the percentages. You can really see the volume change spread out through the races when you compare.
Again, for all UK/IRE horse races, 10 mins pre-off of scheduled time only.
1st col Betfair using Betfair method.
2nd col Betfair using Betdaq method.
3rd col Betdaq using Betdaq method.
Total matched across all races:
Code: Select all
BF BF_BD BD
11/07/2011 14,139,818 40,814,893 3,793,391
18/07/2011 8,903,992 32,531,864 5,538,041
% ratio 63% 80% 146%
Code: Select all
BF BF_BD BD
11/07/2011 403,995 1,166,140 108,383
18/07/2011 269,818 985,814 167,819
% ratio 67% 85% 155%
Here's the race breakdown:
Code: Select all
Ayr 18th Jul 14:30:00 380,845 1,397,058 320,377 23%
Ayr 18th Jul 15:00:00 295,230 1,431,042 228,786 16%
Ayr 18th Jul 15:30:00 421,534 1,540,465 291,060 19%
Ayr 18th Jul 16:00:00 444,371 1,376,842 197,816 14%
Ayr 18th Jul 16:30:00 179,526 714,544 110,038 15%
Ayr 18th Jul 17:00:00 235,501 1,035,424 216,456 21%
Ayr 18th Jul 17:30:00 245,451 877,563 174,233 20%
Wind 18th Jul 18:10:00 247,592 842,284 185,244 22%
Wind 18th Jul 18:40:00 192,178 1,081,729 227,573 21%
Wind 18th Jul 19:10:00 237,139 1,213,780 229,991 19%
Wind 18th Jul 19:40:00 269,738 1,106,952 224,478 20%
Wind 18th Jul 20:10:00 401,234 1,752,295 219,835 13%
Wind 18th Jul 20:40:00 265,197 1,113,555 228,884 21%
Bev 18th Jul 18:30:00 314,097 796,215 108,842 14%
Bev 18th Jul 19:00:00 309,962 903,054 114,169 13%
Bev 18th Jul 19:30:00 231,138 753,275 105,631 14%
Bev 18th Jul 20:00:00 272,889 944,973 146,471 16%
Bev 18th Jul 20:30:00 262,444 714,630 117,814 16%
Bev 18th Jul 21:00:00 307,370 1,076,135 184,094 17%
Yarm 18th Jul 14:15:00 359,781 1,062,712 189,161 18%
Yarm 18th Jul 14:45:00 314,813 1,221,782 177,875 15%
Yarm 18th Jul 15:15:00 423,547 1,180,303 190,941 16%
Yarm 18th Jul 15:45:00 309,677 1,621,008 209,487 13%
Yarm 18th Jul 16:15:00 323,252 1,578,459 286,862 18%
Yarm 18th Jul 16:45:00 146,457 502,548 49,903 10%
Yarm 18th Jul 17:15:00 134,247 324,510 75,450 23%
Ballin 18th Jul 17:50:00 285,788 542,871 81,604 15%
Ballin 18th Jul 18:20:00 83,429 343,159 63,889 19%
Ballin 18th Jul 18:50:00 138,370 385,784 82,319 21%
Ballin 18th Jul 19:20:00 224,858 1,007,470 152,122 15%
Ballin 18th Jul 19:50:00 138,318 580,457 79,777 14%
Ballin 18th Jul 20:20:00 187,910 616,048 119,793 19%
Ballin 18th Jul 20:50:00 320,108 892,940 147,066 16%
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Many thanks for taking the time to do this!
Something occurred to me when trading today and thinking about these figures. Most people trade and bet on the front of the market.
Not many people are 'bothered' by the back end of the market.
However, the back end of the market is likely an area where Betfair's figures are boosted when converted to the Betdaq style because BF attracts a lot more money here than BD will do.
So would it be possible to get a comparison of the front end only of the market comparing Betfair and Betdaq. Say the front 3 in the market based on say SP.
I think this would be an interesting comparison to make if anyone can do it.....
Something occurred to me when trading today and thinking about these figures. Most people trade and bet on the front of the market.
Not many people are 'bothered' by the back end of the market.
However, the back end of the market is likely an area where Betfair's figures are boosted when converted to the Betdaq style because BF attracts a lot more money here than BD will do.
So would it be possible to get a comparison of the front end only of the market comparing Betfair and Betdaq. Say the front 3 in the market based on say SP.
I think this would be an interesting comparison to make if anyone can do it.....
Andy, I think you're right, and you can almost already tell from the numbers I posted earlier.
This also explains what I've been scratching my head about. According to Betfair calculation methods (ie. stake) they've dropped to 63% of normal levels. According to Betdaq calculation methods (ie. liability) they've dropped only by 80%.
This fits exactly the situation that you're suggesting: that it could be the lower priced runners that are losing volume. The higher priced runners might be more or less what they would be before which skews the numbers when using the Betdaq method.
I don't think there's a very easy way to calculate the volume for the favourite 3 runners as I don't store the SP. I could possibly pick out the average matched price over the last 10 mins and use that though. Unfortunately I wouldn't have that data for Betdaq as they don't publish matched amounts by runner on the API as far as I know...
This also explains what I've been scratching my head about. According to Betfair calculation methods (ie. stake) they've dropped to 63% of normal levels. According to Betdaq calculation methods (ie. liability) they've dropped only by 80%.
This fits exactly the situation that you're suggesting: that it could be the lower priced runners that are losing volume. The higher priced runners might be more or less what they would be before which skews the numbers when using the Betdaq method.
I don't think there's a very easy way to calculate the volume for the favourite 3 runners as I don't store the SP. I could possibly pick out the average matched price over the last 10 mins and use that though. Unfortunately I wouldn't have that data for Betdaq as they don't publish matched amounts by runner on the API as far as I know...
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Glad it makes sense to you and hopefully others.
I would say 99% of my pre race trading is done on the front three runners and I would suspect this is correct for most people for the simple fact that we only have three ladders open most of the time, sometimes only one.
As such manual traders are unlikely to be putting much money on away from these selections.
So if people have pulled out of the market and switched to Betdaq the front of the market is going to be impacted considerably more in terms of a drop in amounts matched than happens at the back end of the market where you get far less traders. As such the amounts I would suspect matched on these runners has probably remained fairly constant. But under the Betdaq method of calculation represent a lot of the money and skew the figures and don't really show the true changes in amounts being traded.
If you follow me....
Perhaps Peter Webb has some way of looking at this?
I think it would be well worth a trial run of collecting the data, do Betdaq have any historical data they can release? Peter collects a lot of Betfair data it seems from his postings so I would suspect he already has the necessary data on the Betfair side of things but not the Betdaq.
It would be great to get a comparison on this going I feel but I just don't have the Excel knowledge to achieve anything like this or I would do it myself.
Peter? Anyone?
I would say 99% of my pre race trading is done on the front three runners and I would suspect this is correct for most people for the simple fact that we only have three ladders open most of the time, sometimes only one.
As such manual traders are unlikely to be putting much money on away from these selections.
So if people have pulled out of the market and switched to Betdaq the front of the market is going to be impacted considerably more in terms of a drop in amounts matched than happens at the back end of the market where you get far less traders. As such the amounts I would suspect matched on these runners has probably remained fairly constant. But under the Betdaq method of calculation represent a lot of the money and skew the figures and don't really show the true changes in amounts being traded.
If you follow me....
Perhaps Peter Webb has some way of looking at this?
I think it would be well worth a trial run of collecting the data, do Betdaq have any historical data they can release? Peter collects a lot of Betfair data it seems from his postings so I would suspect he already has the necessary data on the Betfair side of things but not the Betdaq.
It would be great to get a comparison on this going I feel but I just don't have the Excel knowledge to achieve anything like this or I would do it myself.
Peter? Anyone?
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beepbeep20
- Posts: 27
- Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2011 10:05 pm
When looking at the comparisons of yesterdays Betfair matched totals to the previous Mondays on Betfair one thing that crossed my mind is that there were no (in the afternoon when I was around, not sure about the evening) very short priced favourites yesterday.
And those shorties (1.4-1.15), or lack of them, could distort the comparison as they always have so much matched on them even if it's in a narrow price band.
In a long winded way I suppose I'm trying to say if there were a couple of real shorties on the 11th and as there were none on the 18th, the Betfair matched would be down, even if nobody had defected.
I'm not questioning anyone's figures about Betdaq vrs Betfair (which are interesting, encouraging and useful) just a thought that crossed my mind.
And those shorties (1.4-1.15), or lack of them, could distort the comparison as they always have so much matched on them even if it's in a narrow price band.
In a long winded way I suppose I'm trying to say if there were a couple of real shorties on the 11th and as there were none on the 18th, the Betfair matched would be down, even if nobody had defected.
I'm not questioning anyone's figures about Betdaq vrs Betfair (which are interesting, encouraging and useful) just a thought that crossed my mind.