US Presidential Election 2016

[gazuty]

For those thinking trump is a value bet.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is- ... -comeback/

One thing of course. These elections are very dependent on "bring out the vote". Can the Trump team mobilise enough non college educated whites? Do enough people bother to show up for Clinton a deeply unpopular figure.

Great line in this article. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... -on-trump/

"since people (wrongly) tend to perceive odds above 80 percent as sure things."

[workpeter]

How did i not see this thread.?! Maybe someone could delete the new thread i started.

i think the polls are misleading and its a very unique election. I think hillary's numbers will start to tank as more and more scandals come to light. There are rumours they found the missing 30k deleted emails. I wonder what's in them

[ShaunWhite]

He might win the popular vote but he's well and truely snookered by the electoral college system.

[marksmeets302]

Huge swings all of a sudden. Trumps odds now at 4, and some easy trading there.

I wonder were these moves come from: earlier this week someone took out the entire book all the way up from 6.6 to something like 7.8. You need a bit of cash to do that. Now the it's happening the other way around. Weird shit.

update: ah, the fbi is investigating some new emails from clinton. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/fbi-prob ... mails.html
Quite a bit of impact, this news. The vix is up 10% and stocks are down.

[Dallas]

Not looked at this for a few days, looks like a 600K order gone in on trump

[megarain]

amazing swings .. one broker was trying to place £1m on clinton, at 1.20, about a week ago.

Good trading call on Trump .. Which I must say, has amazed me.

[LeTiss]

Bernie Sanders is getting backed too. If Clinton is forced to resign, his price looks huge right now

[megarain]

FBI getting involved ..

Clinton 1.34

Trump 4.4

Sanders 90

[megarain]

Pete Williams has sources saying not about Clinton world w/holding emails. Not about Podesta emails. Not emails from Clinton.

Dow back positive .. have laid more than my fair share of Trump at 4.4

[Crazyskier]

amazing swings .. one broker was trying to place £1m on clinton, at 1.20, about a week ago.

Good trading call on Trump .. Which I must say, has amazed me.

[Zenyatta]

Funny timing Seems like the announcement of the investigation is exactly timed to do max damage to Clinton , a scandal just 1-2 weeks out from an election.

Trump was on the ropes, he's now come off the ropes, sensing weakness in his opponent he's swinging punches for a surprise knock-out!

[The dog of ry]

Funny timing Seems like the announcement of the investigation is exactly timed to do max damage to Clinton , a scandal just 1-2 weeks out from an election.

Trump was on the ropes, he's now come off the ropes, sensing weakness in his opponent he's swinging punches for a surprise knock-out!

Not sure if they've even got the ammo, but the word was that Wikileaks wouldn't be releasing the juicy stuff until it was too late for a candidate change. May have been a bluff, but makes sense.

I was also very interested to see Michelle Obama doing a rally yesterday.... smoke, fire?

[ShaunWhite]

The Republicans and the press have been scrutinising Hillary for over 30 years. I doubt there's anything new. These new rumours are just more sh!t stirring from the Trump camp.

[Euler]

I can't believe the US people have to elect either of these two. I wonder if a low turnout could be a good bet, a vote of no confidence in the political system. Wonder who that would favour?

[kerberus]

The Americans have the Assassination option. As a post-election alternative to twisted democracy it could seem quite attractive. Has anybody opened a market yet? The "over 2.5" could be quite lucrative.