Dallas : How can you track wins/losses of a strategy

[Derek27]

Also the reason I sometimes struggle to explain things is I have already built the infrastructure to handle - a large number of strategies and support them on a daily basis

Is that the reason why you struggle to quote an offending post?

What would you do if you were mugged and the police asked you to describe what happened?

And when you were governor of the Bank of England, didn't you need to explain your decisions to anybody?

[NotBothered]

Derek its 4.05 am here now

I am going to get some sleep and just bit tired of the back and forth of this thread for now -- so taking a break.

cheers

[Kai]

Honestly I would prefer to leave it there for now - I am just not really into this whole back and forth all the time..

Then I suggest to not indulge Derek because he absolutely loves a good back and forth.

Bottom line, it's not about your strategy and your value etc, can't comment on that at all. It's your attitude that people feel is way off base here, not really sure what you're trying to achieve but I'm pretty sure you're going about it the wrong way.

Hell, I remember when Psychoff posted a couple hundred thousand in profits over a shorter period nobody said a word for a couple days, no credit given. Until I felt awkward enough to break the ice.

[Derek27]

I don't want a back and forth, I'm genuinely interested in what caused offence, or at least an acknowledgement that there is no bullying but simply questioning about his strategy.

[gazuty]

great question and it goes to the heart of how to build profitable dutching.

what I did was using a database - build profitable set ups and negative set ups for the races

I then built that into conditions of what to look for -- the recorder then allows it to bet until a loss and then stops it until a profitable set up comes along again

here is a live example of that

it won the first 2 -- lost the third = and is now waiting for a profitable set up to come along again before allowing betting.

this allows you to avoid losing streaks - that kill normal dutching set ups

(many people tell me I suck at explaining things so I will think on it and see if I can explain it more clearly)

(( also while I was typing another postive set up came along -- it bet it and won ))

OP

This went to the heart of the original question from Shaun and it is why I asked the question in another way. The heart of the question is whether you are being fooled by randomness in seeing patterns of streaks in data that is otherwise independent and not correlated.

I understand that you want to avoid a “streak” of losses. WWWWLLLL. What I expect many regular posters are struggling with is that we would expect you only trigger bets into what you consider (from your data and algo) a profitable set up (using your language). So the first L that you hit was hit during a profitable set up. You then suspend betting. To recommence do you simply avoid the next three races you would have otherwise triggered bets on because you could be in a losing streak? Or do you have a different criterion to recommence than to continue once you are in a winning streak. Because if you don’t have a different criterion to recommence, then surely you would’ve bet straight into the second L in the sequence and the third L and the fourth L. If you do have a different criterion to recommence, why isn’t that always your criterion? Because surely your recommencement criterion has a higher strike rate?

[Derek27]

You take my personal experience of working in dealing rooms - we used to treat people horribly - especially women - a lot of people never got an opportunity and we discarded people every week who could not cut it.

These days it is a new world and you need to support and encourage people - and give them a fair chance --- times have changed a lot and even my views on things have changed -- so I am not going to have someone speak to me like that -- those days are over

I can understand being horrible to people in a cut-throat environment, some professions require it. But "especially women"?

You no longer do that because it's a "new world", "times have changed" and "those days are over". But not because treating women differently or as inferior is wrong, then and now?

Unless you're 400 years old, that would be understandable.

[NotBothered]

Dealing Room Stuff - well times were different - I could have said something I did not - I went along with what was going on -- but honestly that is no way to encourage people to improve get the most out of their careers .. times were different - women were honestly given little chance to succeed ... moving on cannot change it + I have had time to reflect upon it over a period of years.


This thread was about my journey in Dutching - and how I built it to work -- so if you did not want to do it this way - no problem - but there is no need to tell me it does not work - because I posted my screenshots from $90 a day up to $800 a day and then on the $1000 first day I did not post that - I just wrote I achieved it ...... simply because there is something about posting stuff from your account on the internet ... it is not necessary to do it - and I am reluctant to do so ... but anyway I did post stuff and it is all there to see.

The whole thought process on streaks etc is just not necessary

I build the market - if it passes my filters/conditions it bets - then it is a win/loss

if it is a win - I allow it to continue betting on races that fit the criteria/runners that fit the criteria
if it is a loss - then I do not allow it to bet - until my forecasted results = the actual results

some people say - oh you should let it bet - one thing does not influence another - its all about prices -- all of that is true and feel free to build your Dutching Strategy that way

but mine is not built that way .. mine bets when it wins - it adds more bets when it wins and it stops betting when it loses and waits to restart.

If you look at the screenshots I posted - you can see it does not bet every race - and I rarely lose a race - in fact I win just about everyone.

This is why using small bet sizes I was able to move quickly from $90 to $500 and then use dogs and horses to hit $1000.

To repeat -- this is how I do it --> so just from my perspective I do not really need criticism - if you want to ask something/make a comment no problem - but if you want to be negative - then make your own thread and post your ideas + stats and show your alternate thoughts .. that is all good.

As far as adding other strategy - I am thinking about that now - just because like I said -- there is almost zero incentive to talk about how to win on this forum - Look I appreciate people making comments and being positive etc -- but it sucks the life out of the place when someone says this is not possible - your doing this or that -- when none of that is true and like I said - I have posted the stuff direct out of my Bet Angel --- so yeah - if you want to criticize me - then back it up is all I can say.


Derek and others who like the back and forth etc -- yeah when I have time yeah I will engage with you guys - but it is not my primary motivation in coming here.

I would just like every person to consider before they post - I rarely type in anyones threads - unless I can add some value -- I simply stick to this thread - where I am right or wrong ... not preaching nor imposing anything on anyone else... I would appreciate the same courtesy.

[NotBothered]

Probably too I want to make one more comment on this whole Dallas situation.

Ok the guy is paid to post - so he is active and adds a tonne of information and links to threads trying to resolve peoples problems.

But still I stand by my statement that I appreciate - his posts / his helpfulness and his not talking down to anyone -- I do not believe there is anything wrong with saying that.

He does a great job that is my comment : It is better for me to ask questions in the open for all to see - so others might take some benefit from it - if it is something they need .. than me just PM him every time.

If you do not agree fine - but that is how I feel about it.

Well it is time for me to get to work and get everything set up and running ... good luck to the punters out there .. cheers.

[Derek27]

if it is a win - I allow it to continue betting on races that fit the criteria/runners that fit the criteria
if it is a loss - then I do not allow it to bet - until my forecasted results = the actual results

You don't sleep for long.

I think the real problem here isn't your inability to explain yourself, the problem is you write but don't read, or you talk but don't listen.

It seems from what you've said in the above quote that you don't understand gambling. You stop betting upon a loser and don't bet until your "forecasted results = the actual results". That's gambler's fallacy, pure and simple.

If you're betting at even money and get 60% winners you're guaranteed to win. The more bets you place the more you win. But you're still going to back 40% losers, it just doesn't make sense to change what you're doing because you've backed a loser - that's the norm.

If you're rolling a die, the expected result is that it won't be a six. Stopping betting upon a six until it's not a six is mindless. It's purely random!

That's what people here have been questioning, it is criticism but it's constructive criticism. It's fine to talk about your methods but you have to be prepared to engage with people on a forum. It's not like a website where your just publishing articles for others to read.

You still haven't explained what comment you found offensive. I'm not going to push you any further for it but it would be nice if you just admitted nothing offensive was said.

[Kai]

I would just like every person to consider before they post - I rarely type in anyones threads - unless I can add some value -- I simply stick to this thread - where I am right or wrong ... not preaching nor imposing anything on anyone else... I would appreciate the same courtesy.

Fair enough.

Dallas does fully deserve any and all credit that comes his way, no question about it. By far the most thoughtful and selfless trader around IMO, even without his auto support role. And since Shaun is in a similar mould as well, if you ask most people, then you can understand why we felt that he was treated unfairly.

Apologies for off-topic OP but was wondering...

Once again, my apologies for the off-topic imposition

[NotBothered]

see that is the thing right

your opinion is that you should bet your numbers - no matter what - and that would be better long term

my opinion is - I frame every race - and I prefer to bet more when my predicted outcome - = actual outcome

this is my preference - because I am using Dutching Strategy -- if I am betting for normal racing - then I bet each race as you talk about

Also when the criteria fall into the very top bracket - I bet more (for dutching)

So these are two different approaches for me 1. dutching 2. normal betting

(( this is where some of the problem is - I know what is happening behind the scenes and what my numbers look like - but your using a normal betting strategy for my Dutching - where I am using a modified version - because this works better for me ))

[NotBothered]

Yeah I think that is the valid point

I have 150+ strategies that bet - as you would prefer them too

This Dutching Strategy is done different - with those slight modifications where it stops betting - because I have found that it makes it more reliable + I prefer that

the enemy to me is Drawdown

(( Now I am not saying my way for Dutching is better - I am just saying - I took it from $90 a day to $1000 a day pretty quick - and this is what worked for me - using modest staking -- I am totally open to someone else starting a thread and showing me that their way is better than mine and doing it differently would be the way to go ... all I can do is post my results and that is all .. ignore them if you like - it is all good ))

[NotBothered]

+ this is how my day started

+$11.51

it will work its way slowly up to $500 as more racing kicks off

[Derek27]

see that is the thing right

your opinion is that you should bet your numbers - no matter what - and that would be better long term

my opinion is - I frame every race - and I prefer to bet more when my predicted outcome - = actual outcome

this is my preference - because I am using Dutching Strategy -- if I am betting for normal racing - then I bet each race as you talk about

Also when the criteria fall into the very top bracket - I bet more (for dutching)

So these are two different approaches for me 1. dutching 2. normal betting

(( this is where some of the problem is - I know what is happening behind the scenes and what my numbers look like - but your using a normal betting strategy for my Dutching - where I am using a modified version - because this works better for me ))

Kai and I have both replied to you and I think you've replied to each post. It would help if you quoted the post you're replying to, so as to avoid confusion. You just click on this button.

Capture.GIF

It doesn't make the slightest bit of difference whether you're trading, punting or dutching. A losing market has no relevance to the next market.

You cannot bet when your predicted outcome = actual outcome, unless you can find a bookie that accepts bets after the race is run!

You can only bet on the next race. How would you cope with a WLWLWLWLWL sequence? Do you skip the winner because the previous bet lost and only back the losers?

[NotBothered]

I have (a) (b) (c) (d) (e)

so only (a) would bet in that scenario

but my strike rate is not 50% it is almost 100% - I am only losing 1/2 GH races a day

because you gotta remember I have the strategy sitting behind it

Yeah it is great to talk about what ifs -- but that is not what I am seeing - my models are very accurate.