(BLOG) Laying the Lame: Betting against the odds favorites

[Dogfather]

I have completed the private testing of my strategy for horse racing.
The result:

Total bets: 27
Wins: 19
Win rate: 70.37%
Total income: 9.22 units

For those who want to examine the results in detail, I'm attaching the archive. Of course, 27 bets is a very small sample, but it allowed me to understand that my strategy works, so now I will be testing it publicly, just as I did with the dogs.

[Euler]

Just so you are aware. Favourites have won much less than expected recently so lay strategy is likely to be up. You need a much bigger sample.

[Dogfather]

Just so you are aware. Favourites have won much less than expected recently so lay strategy is likely to be up. You need a much bigger sample.

Therefore, I will continue testing, I will post my forecasts on the forum, let's see what the result will be in a month..

[Dogfather]

Here we go, let's start! The initial bank is 100 units, with each bet being 1 unit, and a Betfair commission of 2%. Here are today's vulnerable favorites:

14:20 Epsom Downs - Anniversary (2.18)
14:30 Southwell - Unassuming (1.88)

P.S. I'm also monitoring one other race, if the lay odds drop below 3, I'll add.

Added:

17:30 Curragh - Thequietman (2.66)

[Anbell]

Here we go, let's start! The initial bank is 100 units, with each bet being 1 unit, and a Betfair commission of 2%. Here are today's vulnerable favorites:

14:20 Epsom Downs - Anniversary (2.18)
14:30 Southwell - Unassuming (1.88)

P.S. I'm also monitoring one other race, if the lay odds drop below 3, I'll add.

If Anniversary trades below 2.18, how will you record it in your p&l?

[Dogfather]

Here we go, let's start! The initial bank is 100 units, with each bet being 1 unit, and a Betfair commission of 2%. Here are today's vulnerable favorites:

14:20 Epsom Downs - Anniversary (2.18)
14:30 Southwell - Unassuming (1.88)

P.S. I'm also monitoring one other race, if the lay odds drop below 3, I'll add.

If Anniversary trades below 2.18, how will you record it in your p&l?

For the P/L report, I will use the odds that I indicate in parentheses. For example: If Anniversary loses the race, it's +0.98 units, if it wins, it's -1.18 units.

[Anbell]

Here we go, let's start! The initial bank is 100 units, with each bet being 1 unit, and a Betfair commission of 2%. Here are today's vulnerable favorites:

14:20 Epsom Downs - Anniversary (2.18)
14:30 Southwell - Unassuming (1.88)

P.S. I'm also monitoring one other race, if the lay odds drop below 3, I'll add.

If Anniversary trades below 2.18, how will you record it in your p&l?

For the P/L report, I will use the odds that I indicate in parentheses. For example: If Anniversary loses the race, it's +0.98 units, if it wins, it's -1.18 units.

What if it never trades below that price?

[Dogfather]

If Anniversary trades below 2.18, how will you record it in your p&l?

For the P/L report, I will use the odds that I indicate in parentheses. For example: If Anniversary loses the race, it's +0.98 units, if it wins, it's -1.18 units.

What if it never trades below that price?

What's the difference? I'm doing value betting, not trading

[Kai]

Here we go, let's start!

Godspeed

With not much going on it's good to see a running thread, that hopefully leads somewhere, it's important to switch things up, test, refine, tweak etc as one learns more

If you've got the right processes in place even a bad hypothesis based on limited data can eventually lead to a good strategy

Otherwise you might as well just Paypal your trading bank to Anbell

[Anbell]

For the P/L report, I will use the odds that I indicate in parentheses. For example: If Anniversary loses the race, it's +0.98 units, if it wins, it's -1.18 units.

What if it never trades below that price?

What's the difference? I'm doing value betting, not trading

If it doesnt trade at or below that price then you shouldnt record it as a lay bet because the transaction would never have happened.

[Dogfather]

What if it never trades below that price?

What's the difference? I'm doing value betting, not trading

If it doesnt trade at or below that price then you shouldnt record it as a lay bet because the transaction would never have happened.

You are either joking or we are misunderstanding each other The odds I mention in parentheses is the lay odds that I see with my own eyes (i.e., you can place a bet on it "right now").

[Anbell]

What's the difference? I'm doing value betting, not trading

If it doesnt trade at or below that price then you shouldnt record it as a lay bet because the transaction would never have happened.

You are either joking or we are misunderstanding each other The odds I mention in parentheses is the lay odds that I see with my own eyes (i.e., you can place a bet on it "right now").

I did not realize that those odds were available on betfair and that you would have taken that price. Progress!

[Dogfather]

Yesterday's result:

2 wins
1 loss

+1.08 Unit

Bank 101.08 units

I couldn't find any good races today, I'll continue tomorrow

[Dogfather]

There are 2 horses for today:

15:40 Cork - Minnie Hauk (2.02)
17:05 Ayr - Trojan Sun (2.74)

[Dogfather]

Yesterday's result:

2 wins
0 loss

+1,96 Units

Bank 103.04 units

Today:
13:15 Sligo Nara (2.32)

I'm following 2 more races, if the odds drop, I'll add to this post