Trading What I see !?

[goat68]

What looked like a trend at 4mins suddenly changed and headed the other way at 2mins...

The markets aren't random otherwise nobody would be able to make anything, but they aren't generally predictable over longer periods like 2 or 4 minutes either. Be realisitic about your skills and just try to predict say the next 10 seconds, and then the next 10seconds and so on.

learned absolutely nothing from them

btw did you say how many markets you'd traded in total since you started? ....
You might not consiously have learnt anything but you will have added to the sum of knowledge your brain has to work with. When it's got enough then the mist will start to clear. When people say it takes iro 10,000 markets to understand they definately don't mean that you'll learn something on every one or even every day.

Today's card:
5 wins : AVG +£1.70
8 losses : AVG -£1.57
net: -£4.02

What was your return on stakes? eg Net / Sum back stakes. If you've staked a couple of hundred quid total and lost £4 then that's -2%. And -2% isn't far from 0% or +2%. You're not going to make a profit for quite some time, so find a way to measure your perfomance in ways other than cash. Just try and make your return slightly better each week even if it is a minus.

Hi Shaun, appreciate the comments, so you said something major there, not predictable over 2-4 mins, that's blown my thoughts out of the water, and makes me think but Peter in his videos is on 5+ min trades...hey?! I know he's good, but if you say they're not predictable then how is Peter doing it?

Since beginning of June, 600 markets

Currently staking between £10 - £15.
So today about -4.02/150 = -2.7%

[ShaunWhite]

I didn't say anyone can't but at this stage I doubt you can. And although I can't get inside Peter's head, he certainly isn't taking a position and then going out for coffee, I'd think he's constantly reconsidering the situation. If it stays good then you get your 5min swing, but if all the signs turn against him no doubt he'll change his mind. Watch his live trading vids again, you'll see he's not just taking a position and being a passenger, he's putting little offers up and adding to his position or taking bits of profits around where he thinks the market will be in quite short timescales. I hope he'll read this and clarify that

When you're inexperienced then the danger of this is of course that you'll get bullied by the market and change your mind too often. But that's where being able to see through the usual noise to see the order flow comes in.

Don't take my opinion as gospel though, I'm no manual trading guru and I'm certainly not qualified to say what's in Peter's head. I'm just an OKish manual trader and although I did it for a couple of years I haven't done it for the last two as I'm automated. That said I've studied it and how others make it work for untold hours so have a reasonably good idea and know that long term predictions are incredibly difficult, so maybe start short and build up from there. If you can't do 20s you aren't going to do 4mins. You could go for 8 x 30s trades for a couple of ticks each rather than 1 x 4min trade for 15 ticks. Just an idea.

[ShaunWhite]

-2.7% doesn't seem too bad. Average that this week, then average -2.5% next week etc, and you'll get there. Even +3% would be a really decent amount so that's not as far away as you'd maybe think.

Let's say you're on £100 stake, say 3 trades a market and 15 markets a day. That's 100x3x15 = 4,500. x3% = £135.
25 days a month at £135 is a good wage. It's obv not that simple but you don't need a very big positive when you're doing several thousand a market so - 2.7% is something to be pleased with rather than frustrated by.

[Kai]

If you look at the bright side at least there's no shortage of forum advice, the oil reserves would run out sooner!

I see a lot of it being repeated and don't want to sound like a broken record but again, what Mr Goat is seeing in videos is just the tip of the iceberg so to speak and he cannot see more than that, there is a lot of hidden implicit (tacit) knowledge that is clearly difficult and near impossible to transfer to another person because it's based off experience. Plus the pros take a lot of knowledge for granted and dish out a lot of implied knowledge as well, that only hints or suggests at something but is not directly expressed, and most of that as you can imagine goes well over the head of newcomers.



That's sort of why I like to discuss trading as openly as I can and will often overshare, and I probably imply a ton when randomly commenting, but as far as newbies are concerned I see prerace swing trading as maybe the most difficult skillset to actually learn right off the bat (maybe only value based approaches are more difficult), because learning everything all at once on how to speculate and how to manage your position and emotions is practically a Forex trading skillset, even though it may appear dead easy

My point being is that Mr Goat is trying to learn proper trading skills and this simply cannot be done overnight, that's probably more of a fact than opinion.

And I wouldn't say that newbies are just getting baited into it either, I believe literally everyone starts off very naive almost by default as that's the nature of trading, and I think there are enough disclaimers in the videos and overall but people usually like to completely ignore them

Something that every newbie has said at least once right after seeing the latest Bet Angel video : "Hold my beer and watch me install Bet Angel to execute on this easy swing."

[Euler]

although I can't get inside Peter's head, he certainly isn't taking a position and then going out for coffee, I'd think he's constantly reconsidering the situation. If it stays good then you get your 5min swing, but if all the signs turn against him no doubt he'll change his mind. Watch his live trading vids again, you'll see he's not just taking a position and being a passenger, he's putting little offers up and adding to his position or taking bits of profits around where he thinks the market will be in quite short timescales. I hope he'll read this and clarify that

That's correct

[goat68]

A bit better day today
10 wins : AVG £1.29
5 losses : AVG -£1.70
net: +£4.34

I took some of what Shaun mentioned into account and looked at short intervals, which took average win down a little, but I had more of them. I must same the day was of two halfs, first half went very well, and trades did not seem random and each planned well, which felt good, then I got a bit straggly and perhaps greedy, I think I did some trades I shouldn't of and over traded. I'm going to plan my day a bit better and set a rough target for the maximum number of quality markets i'm going to do for the races on, so I think better about whether I get into a trade or not.

Except the last few trades I felt a lot better about today.

[goat68]

If you look at the bright side at least there's no shortage of forum advice, the oil reserves would run out sooner!

I see a lot of it being repeated and don't want to sound like a broken record but again, what Mr Goat is seeing in videos is just the tip of the iceberg so to speak and he cannot see more than that, there is a lot of hidden implicit (tacit) knowledge that is clearly difficult and near impossible to transfer to another person because it's based off experience. Plus the pros take a lot of knowledge for granted and dish out a lot of implied knowledge as well, that only hints or suggests at something but is not directly expressed, and most of that as you can imagine goes well over the head of newcomers.



That's sort of why I like to discuss trading as openly as I can and will often overshare, and I probably imply a ton when randomly commenting, but as far as newbies are concerned I see prerace swing trading as maybe the most difficult skillset to actually learn right off the bat (maybe only value based approaches are more difficult), because learning everything all at once on how to speculate and how to manage your position and emotions is practically a Forex trading skillset, even though it may appear dead easy

My point being is that Mr Goat is trying to learn proper trading skills and this simply cannot be done overnight, that's probably more of a fact than opinion.

And I wouldn't say that newbies are just getting baited into it either, I believe literally everyone starts off very naive almost by default as that's the nature of trading, and I think there are enough disclaimers in the videos and overall but people usually like to completely ignore them

Something that every newbie has said at least once right after seeing the latest Bet Angel video : "Hold my beer and watch me install Bet Angel to execute on this easy swing."

Thanks Kai, I love the diagram! I understand what you're saying, and must admit I'm not under the waterline much apart from gaining some pattern recognition from the markets I've traded. I like the Judging Typicality! That's really tricky what is typical? As Peter says, think about what other traders are (typically) thinking...

Cheers
Goat

[ShaunWhite]

think about what other traders are (typically) thinking...

Have you got much gambling/betting experience? Have you spent much time in the bookies or at racecourses? It's not essential and ex-gamblers aren't alway the best equipped to trade but knowing something about the world you're trying to outwit helps. If you haven't then maybe you should? (when lockdown is over) lurk around for a few days, get known, watch people, listen to and talk to them. Do you know how they react when they see a horse steam quickly, or when a jockey is on a treble, what about unexposed horses or horses from a gambling yard? What's their attitude to value and significant numbers like evens or a race with a clear odds on fav vs a handicap with 3 at 6/1.

Personally I must have spent 00s of hours in the bookies years ago, some traders like LeTiss even used to work for one. As I said it's not essential but the ladder isn't a video game, it's a reflection of how people think and act. If you're serious then finding out how gamblers think and act certainly won't be a bad thing.

I know Peter also studies human behavior, crowd psychology etc and especially logical fallacies and cognative biases. In short: Cognitive biases are our built-in patterns of thinking and affect how we interpret and process information from the world around us, and logical fallacies are errors or tricks of thought committed in an argument and they relate to how we construct arguments and communicate ideas to others. A few hours on wiki etc might be easier than a week in the bookies

[Kai]

Would be nice if you could sort the threads by number of posts or views, that way you could easily find the most popular and helpful threads.

There's a ton of stuff buried from many forum contributors, there's really not much new stuff that wasn't already said many times before.

EDIT: Hm, actually it appears to be possible to do that via the forum options here, it's not ideal but could be useful for people that are looking for advice.

[ShaunWhite]

The problem with learning to trade using subjectivity, is that it's not how we naturally learn subjectivity. You can go for days losing and doing the right thing or visa versa, and that really blurs the usual way our brains work which is 'fall over, get hurt, don't do that again'. The feedback loop is over a timescale and of a type we don't usually have to deal with.

I saw this chart below recently, 1000 trades. Gauging where you are in that distribution is incredibly difficult / verging on the impossible. I'm sure new people don't really think it'll take them 10,000 markets to crack it, but when you see how small the difference is between edge and no edge, and the degree of overlap, then 10,000 hardly seems enough.

Screenshot_12.png

[goat68]

Another good day, I'm now back in profit for the week:
8 wins : AVG £1.32
3 losses : AVG -£0.54
Net : +£8.91
Return : +5.8%

Used a profile for what markets I would trade, which worked well.
Hard work, and some scary moments when the volume ramped up around 3 mins.
Pleased again with today.

[Dallas]

Another good day, I'm now back in profit for the week:
8 wins : AVG £1.32
3 losses : AVG -£0.54
Net : +£8.91
Return : +5.8%

Used a profile for what markets I would trade, which worked well.
Hard work, and some scary moments when the volume ramped up around 3 mins.
Pleased again with today.

Good Stuff

[ruthlessimon]

The problem with learning to trade using subjectivity...

omg a post from shaun explaining the issues of subjective trading.... Blaspheme

Nice article: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/r ... e-trading/

[goat68]

The problem with learning to trade using subjectivity...

omg a post from shaun explaining the issues of subjective trading.... Blaspheme

Nice article: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/r ... e-trading/

Great article

[ShaunWhite]

The problem with learning to trade using subjectivity...

omg a post from shaun explaining the issues of subjective trading.... Blaspheme

And the other problem is that pure objectivity is just as hard too. Aside from the analysis it requires, you need to execute without your decision being coloured by any sort of personal opinion.

‘to be objective is to aspire to knowledge that bears no trace of the knower—knowledge unmarked by prejudice or skill, fantasy or judgment, wishing or striving’

Finding the right balance of both is tricky to say the least. There's no wonder trading is difficult, before you learn to trade you have to learn the best way to learn it. Learning how to learn is something a top notch education gives you, but unfortunately not many people have one of those.