Today's Horse Racing

[ShaunWhite]

I was talking about the graph, not the reasons for the continued drift.

You're over analysing again Simon.

Musta misread your post. I assumed you meant 7.6->9.4 (.."sent it on its way") i.e. was enough info to suggest a continued drift.

What Derek means (excuse if I'm wrong) Is that it's a strong indication that something might happen. If you're poised and keep reassessing you can capitalise on it. He's not trading based on seeing something, clicking, and closing his eyes.

I think this is what Peter means by trading volatility. See the signs of impending action, then maximise the ups while minimising the downs. The trigger above isn't in itself the edge, it's just a sign you should stop scratching your butt and start focusing.

That's 2 sets of putting words into people's mouths.

[ruthlessimon]

If you're poised and keep reassessing you can capitalise on it. He's not trading based on seeing something, clicking, and closing his eyes.

I think this is what Peter means by trading volatility. The trigger above isn't in itself the edge, it's just a sign you should stop scratching your butt and start focusing.

I hate that word "reassessing"

Let's assume for a moment a £2k back spike appeared @ 10 (in the Derek example). Two traders could both cite "discretionary order flow" for two very different trades (IMO - discretionary order flow offers us an optimal entry - but not a bias) - here's why:

"This runner has drifted from 7.6 - 10. It's clearly weak. Even though a £2k spike has entered @ 10, this is just a guy holding up the price (manipulative order flow) - lay again"
"This runner has drifted from 7.6 - 10. It's clearly approaching value. A £2k spike has entered @ 10, this is a fundamental backer entering (genuine order flow) - back"

Who's done the optimal trade longterm?

I'd argue, what's the probability of a steam after a £2k back @ 10? That's not discretionary though - & that reassessment was done long before the market even started!

[ruthlessimon]

.. & the massive massive irony - if every market participant also thinks along those lines (i.e. the two hypothetical traders above) -they cancel each other out - i.e. creating random price action - creating untradable conditions for those on the sidelines.

That might be a wrong conclusion, but I do find thought experiments like this fascinating

I'm convinced one of the fundamental biases of the market - is that everyone "thinks" they are better than everyone else

(p.s. dunno why half this post is bold )

[Lutruwita]

Just did my day on a Betfair outage. Bloody monkeys run Betfair.

[Derek27]

Did the outage only affect football markets?

[Lutruwita]

Albion Park for me.

[Lutruwita]

Betfair has gone again. Might call it a day....

[napshnap]

.. & the massive massive irony - if every market participant also thinks along those lines (i.e. the two hypothetical traders above) -they cancel each other out - i.e. creating random price action - creating untradable conditions for those on the sidelines.

That might be a wrong conclusion, but I do find thought experiments like this fascinating

I'm convinced one of the fundamental biases of the market - is that everyone "thinks" they are better than everyone else

(p.s. dunno why half this post is bold )

Trading could be more interesting and maybe easier if we had tags for each order: bots, owner, trainer, local bookie, regular traders, spoofer and so on.
We can identify some of them (mad bomber or some bots with repetitive patterns), but this is too much work for the human brain.

ps. Seems like boldnes is contagious, DO NOT QUOTE MY POST, PEOPLE!

[Naffman]

Just did my day on a Betfair outage. Bloody monkeys run Betfair.

Betfair PP share price 25% since Jackson took over in January, and I don't think these outages will be helping!

3 days of quality Aussie racing coming up too so let's hope we can avoid any issues

[Gauss]

A welcome upwards spike on Open Sea at Pontefract

[Naffman]

Make a wish far too keen in parade

[Dallas]

Really enjoying today so far, been some decent moves already

[Dallas]

The more the day's gone on the better the markets have become

[Gauss]

Mark of Approval getting absolutely battered at Kempton

[Derek27]

Dreadful afternoon... until this one.

Alfarqad, 18-15 Kempton.jpg