HOW exactly are you doing money?

[Euler]

I think this chap is from Sweden so it's a european disease!

[Wobbler]

Wait guys I speak troll, they only understand meme language.

Helo Thisisgambling, cool story bro. Do you even lift? Not sure if trolling or serious. One does not simply understand what is trading. Trading is ermahgerd, such wow, so amaze, much reward. What if i told you, there is money in trading. I used to be a pessimist too but then I took an arrow to the knee. I hope this clarifies the matter.

[Thisisgambling]

I dont like sports, beside lifting heavy weights and screaming of frustration but otherwise NO.

imagine a newbie comes to you and ask "what's your edge. How come you can lift such heavy weights but I can't? What's your secret? I've watched so many instructional videos but still can't do it. Actually I don't like weight lifting but I'am sure you know some tricks that allow you showing good results without too much force and no injuries ..."

at least that's how your question sounds to me.

I would tell him that muscles adopt, or more exact the nerves.
This is not satisfying neither, i have to admit that i am embaressed by the fact that i can't explain it fully so i used google and got this.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/artic ... e-make-yo/

"The neural basis of muscle strength enhancement primarily involves the ability to recruit more muscle cells--and thus more power strokes--in a simultaneous manner, a process referred to as synchronous activation. This is in contradistinction to the firing pattern seen in untrained muscle, where the cells take turns firing in an asynchronous manner. Training also decreases inhibitory neural feedback, a natural response of the central nervous system to feedback signals arising from the muscle. Such inhibition keeps the muscle from overworking and possibly ripping itself apart as it creates a level of force to which it is not accustomed. This neural adaptation generates significant strength gains with minimal hypertrophy and is responsible for much of the strength gains seen in women and adolescents who exercise. It also utilizes nerve and muscle cells already present and accounts for most of the strength increases recorded in the initial stages of all strength training, because hypertrophy is a much slower process, depending, as it does, on the creation of new muscle proteins. Thus, overall, the stress of repeated bouts of exercise yield neural as well as muscular enhancements to increase muscle strength. "
If i actually was strogner than him nad it was because of the fact that i had trained more than him.
Genetics have a big part in strenght training, so he could be stronger than me but this is also explained by the nerves (muscles).

[Thisisgambling]

Sorry about multiple posts. Not so good at using quote.

[Thisisgambling]

The English mindset: If I can't do it, nobody can. People just seem to be so pessimistic here.

Shame. The thread is getting bad.
Yes it is pessimistic to say that traders are just lucky, if you have invested a lot of time in it.
Or it is just a fact. It is only getting pessimistic if you choose to see it as pesimistic.
People can do it but what is the reason they do it?

People are winning on slots but is it talent (having an edge) or is it sheer luck? It is obviously sheer luck.

http://www.cnbc.com/2014/09/19/nobel-wi ... -good.html
"He's known as the father of the efficient-markets theory, which says that asset prices reflect all available information; investment managers can never truly get an edge."

And about Warren Buffet here is what Fama has to say about him.
"Asked about Warren Buffett's long-term record of picking good companies, Fama said the Berkshire Hathaway chief actually agreed with his index-based thesis. Buffett said recently he actually has directed much of his fortune to be placed in passive index funds after he dies.

"He's, like, my hero," Fama said. "What he says is, 'I can pick a company every couple years, but if you have to form a portfolio, you're better off going passive.'"
"

Edit: http://www.investisseurautonome.info/PD ... nagers.pdf
This is the studie the fuss is all about if i am getting things right here.
"Luck versus skill in the cross section of mutual fund alpha estimate"

[Dallas]

Everyone can think they have a edge - your long term P&L data is proof if this is actually a true fact or just denial or wishful thinking.

Sucessful sports trading is all about looking at mulitple pieces of infomation collaborating it altogehter then using your own judgement, knowledge and skill built up from many hours of studying markets to form a simple opinion on weather the odds will now move a set way and then open a position accordlingly - this is a succesful traders edge. There is no one source that you can blindly follow that will tell you with any degree of acuracy what the odds will do time and time again otherwise everyone will just sit there and do just that.

Anyone can be lucky a few times and make money without the slightest clue of what there doing weather its sports, finicial trading or poker but longterm its the above and not luck that will reap any profits and ultimately a P/T or F/T living.

[Thisisgambling]

Everyone can think they have a edge - your long term P&L data is proof if this is actually a true fact or just denial or wishful thinking.

Sucessful sports trading is all about looking at mulitple pieces of infomation collaborating it altogehter then using your own judgement, knowledge and skill built up from many hours of studying markets to form a simple opinion on weather the odds will now move a set way and then open a position accordlingly - this is a succesful traders edge. There is no one source that you can blindly follow that will tell you with any degree of acuracy what the odds will do time and time again otherwise everyone will just sit there and do just that.

Anyone can be lucky a few times and make money without the slightest clue of what there doing weather its sports, finicial trading or poker but longterm its the above and not luck that will reap any profits and ultimately a P/T or F/T living.

But is it skill or is it just sheer luck? All of you are really just running around the bush.
We are not talking about the timeframe of a downswing in poker here, we are talking about the market where traders are working a whole lifetime, Fama is knowing this and his studie is investing just this timeframe.
The luck i am talking about is stretching over multiple years yes even a lifetime.

[Kai]

[poklius]

So according to Fama it is impossible to make money in markets? Or is it just that traders on average make less than index funds? Institutional investors aren't always motivated to make profits long term, short term is enough, collect those bonuses and off u go.. that might lower average returns a lot.

No one here is going to give magic formula, there simply isn't one

[Dallas]

But is it skill or is it just sheer luck? All of you are really just running around the bush.
We are not talking about the timeframe of a downswing in poker here, we are talking about the market where traders are working a whole lifetime, Fama is knowing this and his studie is investing just this timeframe.
The luck i am talking about is stretching over multiple years yes even a lifetime.

Well if you think all succesful sports traders are just lucky if you are going to get into this game all you have to do is just ask yourself one question

"Do i feel lucky"

.... Well do you???

[PeterLe]

I must admit, I was dissapointed in the new version 1.42.
For £150/Year, I was expecting a "Click Here to make a million" Button!

[Thisisgambling]

So according to Fama it is impossible to make money in markets? Or is it just that traders on average make less than index funds? Institutional investors aren't always motivated to make profits long term, short term is enough, collect those bonuses and off u go.. that might lower average returns a lot.

No one here is going to give magic formula, there simply isn't one

Eugene Fama is not denying the fact that there are winners on the market. There are obviously winners on the market..
He is just saying that those winners are winners due to sheer luck and not thanks to skill.
And he is recommending indexfunds becaue those are outperforming all those active investors. Yes there will be a active manager who is doing more profit than an indexfund but how are you supposed to know beforehand which manager this is?
Short term does this apply even more.
If you are playing on a slot is it actually good for you if you are thinking short term, over a longer sample of spins do you get closer and closer to the payoutrate the slot is having. Netent slots (the most common on the market) have a "payoutrate" around 96-98%.

[Golfer]

I have never heard of this Fatama women but she sounds a like fully signed up member of the efficient market and random walk cult.

Plenty of decent evidence of the intranet that disproves this theory.

[Thisisgambling]

I have never heard of this Fatama women but she sounds a like fully signed up member of the efficient market and random walk cult.

Plenty of decent evidence of the intranet that disproves this theory.

Would you like to post some of those evidences?

[xitian]

I must admit that I do see Thisisgambling's point of view. Or rather I can understand how someone can have his point of view. But there is a lot of evidence to show that the efficient markets hypothesis is not true. It may be true if you were to bet or invest randomly, but not if you use specific information to determine your decisions and/or look at different time horizons.

As Dallas has mentioned, the evidence that you have an edge is shown in your P&L. Yes, your profits could be luck, but if you look at many of the professionals on this forum I'm sure you'll find that their daily P&L is nearly always positive. I'm profitable about 360 days of the year. How can that be luck? I've maintained that record for over 5 years. As soon as I'm unable to maintain that record I'll know I've lost my edge and I'll stop trading.

Perhaps you could argue that I'm running some crazy risky strategy where I could lose my whole history of profits in one go, but that just isn't true. In fact my daily return is about 2% of my bank (the most I can possibly lose because that's what I have in my account), so it takes me about 50 days before I've earnt as much as the size of my bank (and then can be withdrawn and never lost again). Now given I've been running for around 2000 days now, the chances of that being luck are just so incredibly miniscule that I'm willing to put money on it

I can show you a graph of my PnL if you like, but I can tell you it's a virtual straight-line trending upwards.

I think Thisisgambling is arguing from a financial markets point of view, where it is much more rare to get consistent returns, especially if you're talking about fund managers and medium to long term investment. However even in the financial markets you'll find people who can manage incredibly consistent returns such as with high frequency trading or statistical arbitrage. I've heard of sharpe ratios up in the 10s, which is what I'd expect from a sports trader.

The efficient markets hypothesis just isn't true. And I suspect the people who know this are the ones busy making money rather than writing papers about it.