Using the winner to pick a loser

[buddypeach]

Evening all (which policeman was it that used to say that?),

I'm experimenting with this myself and having some success but trying to get to the next level.

I lay any position between 10 and 15 after 30 seconds of in play.

Having let it run for a couple of days it picks a winner about 9 times out of ten but losses are expensive obviously.

Is there a way to automate a 'get out of jail free' option if the laid horse suddenly starts romping in to win the race?

I'm sure it would be possible to back the the horse I've already laid if its odds come in to 1.1 but the stake would be massive to balance the offset???

Any thoughts would be gratefully received

[novicestakes]

Evening all (which policeman was it that used to say that?),

I'm experimenting with this myself and having some success but trying to get to the next level.

I lay any position between 10 and 15 after 30 seconds of in play.

Having let it run for a couple of days it picks a winner about 9 times out of ten but losses are expensive obviously.

Is there a way to automate a 'get out of jail free' option if the laid horse suddenly starts romping in to win the race?

I'm sure it would be possible to back the the horse I've already laid if its odds come in to 1.1 but the stake would be massive to balance the offset???

Any thoughts would be gratefully received

The above is pure gambling imho, over say a 3 mile race, the first 30 seconds show nothing of promise to make a difference to an outcome.

Following some guidance on here, you can do just this, but more scientifically to lay such a horse, if say a horse at the front trades at <2.

Try adding a condition to your existing rule, for example:

Historic Fixed Odds
In Order of Favoritism : 1
Odds <2.0

(Have a play with the odds)

Your bet(s) will be firing at far better times if building a condition around the race.

[buddypeach]

Hi Novicestakes,

thanks for the advice, I'm very new to all this so still experimenting. I'll modify my options and see if I can achieve a better hit rate.

[jimibt]

buddypeach, as novicestakes says, what you are doing is effectively gambling, rather than trading. this strategy will lead you to the poor house at the least expected time and will never allow you to relax. I'd advocate a slightly different approach that produces lower gains but significantly lower losses in the 1/10 event that it all goes pear shaped.

basically, you want to create an offset back bet when you place the lay (at say 20 ticks if you want bigger wins) but at the same time, place a stop that is 10 ticks down from the placement price. you may find that you get stopped out more often than you benefit initially, therefore will need to adjust both the offset tick and the stop loss trigger parameters to match your own use case.

at the risk of sounding like a broken record, DO NOT put either a back or lay bet in-play and hope that it achieves the desired result, the house always wins in the long run and if you are very unlucky, you'll hit the skids sooner than you expect... look at the in-play market as a hedging opportunity, rather than a win market

[buddypeach]

Thank you for the constructive advice Jimibt. Like I say, still learning so I appreciate your comments.