any advice please
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prestburydreams
- Posts: 124
- Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:47 pm
alpha r u in the 2 percent club as bombing is like the feeling I have been getting this week a 21k followed quickly by 11k sent from 20 up to 50 odd down this week before I could even say omg I'm onlyasking as it would make me feel a bit better about my own trading as when it happened I took the loss skipped the next race made a brew and decided there was nothing I could of done about it as the market looked like the drift would continue due to the wom and then from 1.78 it re surfaced at 1.52
Have a read through these you will get plenty of excellent pointersprestburydreams wrote:any advice here or a nudge in the right direction would be warmly received
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9752
viewtopic.php?f=17&t=8320
Reading through your posts I'd say a few things. This is just my opinion by the way, as you have pointed out you have already had lots of contradictive advice on this thread alone, though that just hammers home the point that there is no right or wrong way, you just have to find a way that works for you.
Firstly I'd say you are almost certainly overstaking. Trying to push your full bank through every race is a sure fire loser, I know that from experience. There are certainly times and opportunities where you should be using 500 and sometimes 4 figure stakes, though these opportunities don't come up every race.
I'm not sure why this is. Conspiracy theorists would say it is betfair trading their own markets, or that preferred customers have access to more information than the rest of us. I have no evidence, or reason to believe that is true. My own theory is that the majority of the liquidity is provided by a small minority of players. If you start trying to push big stakes through every race your positions will stand out and you will be identified as a trader trying to either move or manipulate the market, and the people you are betting against will have bigger banks and balls than you do, so will either hold or push the market against you.
There won't be many genuine punters out there betting 500 plus on each race, if there are, they probably won't be around very long. I sometimes gamble myself when I get bored trading, very unsuccessfully I should add, and even staking in the 50 to 200 range you can soon do a lot of damage to your bank, as there are so many races in the summer. You think that to make it worthwhile you have to be using 500 to 1000 stakes to trade, though in my experience this is counter productive. Using stakes in the 50 to 100 range it is still possible to make good money trading, as all the little wins add up. Plus, assuming the game is fair, and nobody has access to any more information than anybody else, you can use these stakes unnoticed and not have to worry about bigger traders pushing the market against you, which they seem to when bigger stakes are used.
The other thing that stood out to me in your posts was what you said about indicators, graphs, ranges, weight of money etc. In my opinion, and again it's just my opinion, I'm sure others will tell you different, it is very difficult for the manual trader to trade like this these days. I think a lot of manual traders using all this information are struggling to make what they once did, I think 5 years ago this was the way to trade, though I'm not so sure it is these days.
There are many theories as to why. Cross matching must have had some effect, and also suspicious matching processes, and again conspiracy theorists would point the finger at betfair. My own personal theory is the rise in automation.
If all your indicators and strategies rely on information like WOM, volume, graphs, market movement, ranges etc, then I think you are up against it trying to compete against the bots. Over the last 3 years automation has got very advanced. You only have to look at this forum where most new posts are in the automation sections, and at BetAngel itself which has added loads of new fantastic features making automation available even to the less computer savvy.
My opinion is that there are some very very clever traders out there running automation. Basically, if your strategy can be automated, then I would guess that by now somebody has already automated it.
That isn't to say it is all doom and gloom for the manual trader though. There are many opportunities that arise every day where the manual trader can beat the bots. You just need to be very patient and disciplined to sit and wait for them. And that is when you should be upping your stakes with confidence. I just think the game has changed a little over the last 3 years and the old fashioned manual number traders have been replaced by advanced automation players.
Though every day new opportunities arise, and you basically have to keep refining, changing and tweaking your methods constantly, just in order to stay ahead of the game. If you want to last a long time in the game you have to be constantly evolving, thats what all the top traders who have been around from the start have done, evolved and adapted, and you have to admire them for doing so.
Firstly I'd say you are almost certainly overstaking. Trying to push your full bank through every race is a sure fire loser, I know that from experience. There are certainly times and opportunities where you should be using 500 and sometimes 4 figure stakes, though these opportunities don't come up every race.
I'm not sure why this is. Conspiracy theorists would say it is betfair trading their own markets, or that preferred customers have access to more information than the rest of us. I have no evidence, or reason to believe that is true. My own theory is that the majority of the liquidity is provided by a small minority of players. If you start trying to push big stakes through every race your positions will stand out and you will be identified as a trader trying to either move or manipulate the market, and the people you are betting against will have bigger banks and balls than you do, so will either hold or push the market against you.
There won't be many genuine punters out there betting 500 plus on each race, if there are, they probably won't be around very long. I sometimes gamble myself when I get bored trading, very unsuccessfully I should add, and even staking in the 50 to 200 range you can soon do a lot of damage to your bank, as there are so many races in the summer. You think that to make it worthwhile you have to be using 500 to 1000 stakes to trade, though in my experience this is counter productive. Using stakes in the 50 to 100 range it is still possible to make good money trading, as all the little wins add up. Plus, assuming the game is fair, and nobody has access to any more information than anybody else, you can use these stakes unnoticed and not have to worry about bigger traders pushing the market against you, which they seem to when bigger stakes are used.
The other thing that stood out to me in your posts was what you said about indicators, graphs, ranges, weight of money etc. In my opinion, and again it's just my opinion, I'm sure others will tell you different, it is very difficult for the manual trader to trade like this these days. I think a lot of manual traders using all this information are struggling to make what they once did, I think 5 years ago this was the way to trade, though I'm not so sure it is these days.
There are many theories as to why. Cross matching must have had some effect, and also suspicious matching processes, and again conspiracy theorists would point the finger at betfair. My own personal theory is the rise in automation.
If all your indicators and strategies rely on information like WOM, volume, graphs, market movement, ranges etc, then I think you are up against it trying to compete against the bots. Over the last 3 years automation has got very advanced. You only have to look at this forum where most new posts are in the automation sections, and at BetAngel itself which has added loads of new fantastic features making automation available even to the less computer savvy.
My opinion is that there are some very very clever traders out there running automation. Basically, if your strategy can be automated, then I would guess that by now somebody has already automated it.
That isn't to say it is all doom and gloom for the manual trader though. There are many opportunities that arise every day where the manual trader can beat the bots. You just need to be very patient and disciplined to sit and wait for them. And that is when you should be upping your stakes with confidence. I just think the game has changed a little over the last 3 years and the old fashioned manual number traders have been replaced by advanced automation players.
Though every day new opportunities arise, and you basically have to keep refining, changing and tweaking your methods constantly, just in order to stay ahead of the game. If you want to last a long time in the game you have to be constantly evolving, thats what all the top traders who have been around from the start have done, evolved and adapted, and you have to admire them for doing so.
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prestburydreams
- Posts: 124
- Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:47 pm
Thanks guys for ur replies dallas i will do my home work on those links when i get home having been readin the various threads im feeling much better about the situationat the minute as there are people on here suffering the same fate as me in their trading and i think newbies forget that you do and will have to be prepared to lose i watched some videos by mugdog or someone called something simular as was over the moon to find on a swing trade he was happy to sit out of position for more or less as long as he was in a green position my stakes r way to high for my level i wouldnt say i wouldnt say i show to much in the market as i always lay first so mainly im laying between stakes of 80 to 200 quid but mainly the lower end i think you are totally right about automation every level of life progresses and the easy money each race all day period is overim also relieved to see so many people saying the graphs are not so important as it sends me cross eyed im going to load up a fifty and start finding my own style and use as much of the info u guys have shared with me that more suits what im doing thanks guys its nice to know people can take time out there day to help people along hope u all make a fortune today cheers steve
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
Alpha322 wrote:Its not a secret its a edge and that is what one has to find for ones self, took me 5 years to find mine some people take longer, but i have lossers because of bombers with large banks etc cant do nothing about that, but use your edge if its a good one it should outweigh the losersthreedogs wrote: but dont listen to anybody who says there is no secret because there are several
5 personally
Once people find an 'edge' they usually keep it secret otherwise they find their edge usually disappears quite quickly
I'd be surprised if people give their edge away on an open forum, most people have probably sweated blood and a few quid to find it in the first place. That's not to say the advice you'll get isn't useful but it'll be the generic type stuff you can probably find all over the net anyway.
Even if someone gave you their edge it's unlikely you'd profit from it at such an early stage because you'd most likely be unimpressed with the small returns and lack of action coming from a gambling background. The user JollyGreen has written plenty of decent articles for anyone starting out and they're certainly worth a read as they contain plenty of pointers on the mental as well as trading side of things. You'll need to have both if you want to hold onto any profits you may win.
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Crazyskier
- Posts: 1298
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
THIS 100%.spreadbetting wrote:Sounds like you're overstaking to me...
Drop the stakes down for now so they effectvely mean nothing win/lose with that pressure off you should be able to concentrate and learn how the markets move rather than chase losses.
Perhaps see some of my other posts about using pennies to learn and only upping stakes from PFROFITS, so even blips don't cost you...
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prestburydreams
- Posts: 124
- Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:47 pm
I dont really drink can be as long as 6-12 months between acholic drinks for me so im ok on that score cant afford to drink and trade/gamble lol
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prestburydreams
- Posts: 124
- Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:47 pm
Im reading so much content on here and acting on as much advice as possible i have loaded up and going to small takes to ease the pressure of the dreaded red book and then hopefully i will focus more on what is really going on rather then looking a red column that is get deeper when trades go wrong i also know it will help me to try new things as the losses wont really matter finacially unless im losing virtually every market if that happens im gonna do the reverse and then im on to something im planning on have a go tomorrow and will c how different i feel with less in the market thanks guys
Just a quick tuppence worth from me.
I've just been reading the lengthy replies from some of the guys on here and I think it is a credit to this forum, that people are willing to give so generously of their experience.
I've often thought about pre race trading, but I don't think my 62 year old eyes would appreciate hours of screen staring.
I've just been reading the lengthy replies from some of the guys on here and I think it is a credit to this forum, that people are willing to give so generously of their experience.
I've often thought about pre race trading, but I don't think my 62 year old eyes would appreciate hours of screen staring.
I know a 71 year-old trader, greetygreety wrote:Just a quick tuppence worth from me.
I've just been reading the lengthy replies from some of the guys on here and I think it is a credit to this forum, that people are willing to give so generously of their experience.
I've often thought about pre race trading, but I don't think my 62 year old eyes would appreciate hours of screen staring.
You're never too old mate, besides your experience is possibly a firewall. Older people are invariably less reckless, and more conservative in their judgements - good qualities to have in the early days of learning the markets
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prestburydreams
- Posts: 124
- Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:47 pm
Had a go in practice mode saturday i done ok over a 2 hour period in the afternoon markets the only problem is i have to be honest i started with 25 stakes but often clicked back to one hundred when i needed to to replace a red for green the only positive i can take from it is that when i did it worked which means most likely my earlier 25 pound trades where probably or defo goin in to early so to eagre to get in the market
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
Stop thinking about stakes and start thinking why the first bet went wrong. All you're doing by upping the stakes is chasing and whilst that might work short term it'll never pay off in the long run. It won't teach you anything about the markets just bad habits that are hard to break.
You need to be assessing why the first bet lost and second ones won, it may just be luck as one afternoon is far too short to make firm conclusions. But you need to start somewhere so start writing down why you entered the market at that time, what direction you thought it'd move in and the reasons why. Assessing why things went wrong is just as important as when they go right. You'll find a lot of assumptions you've made about how markets move are actually incorrect and the opposite occurs
You need to be assessing why the first bet lost and second ones won, it may just be luck as one afternoon is far too short to make firm conclusions. But you need to start somewhere so start writing down why you entered the market at that time, what direction you thought it'd move in and the reasons why. Assessing why things went wrong is just as important as when they go right. You'll find a lot of assumptions you've made about how markets move are actually incorrect and the opposite occurs
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prestburydreams
- Posts: 124
- Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 7:47 pm
if people who trade seriously do not trade from sept /oct onwards would there be any point in taking up a course in august as there as there is so little trading time left in the year from august on wards so should newbie/rookie traders just target starting from march onwards over the last few days I have found a few videos on here that have helped me find a set up for myself that's comfy I have had a few goes in practice mode and will continue to keep trying