Cheltenham 2017
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Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 847
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
Think I understand the acca thing a bit better now.
They are not saying that we will be hedging these horses. They are just going to be offering markets on these selections and other popular short price selections on the day. So you will be able to back or lay the treble or acca, or be able to hedge your own bookmakers acca on the same selections if you wanted to.
So if for example on the Thursday you had the fourfold of uknowwhatimeanharry, let's dance, un de sceaux and yorkhill. If the first two legs went in, and you wanted to hedge, there will be a market for doing so on the exchange.
And it would also give you the opportunity to back or lay the acca yourself on the exchange. So if there are three shorties, and you think at least one will get beat but you don't know which, you could lay the treble on betfairs market. Or if you thought they will all win, you can back the treble on the exchange.
They have stated that they will be hedging their liabilities from their sports books on the exchange, though that could obviously be for any of the runners depending on where the money goes on the day. Not just the runners they are going to be offering multiples markets on.
They are not saying that we will be hedging these horses. They are just going to be offering markets on these selections and other popular short price selections on the day. So you will be able to back or lay the treble or acca, or be able to hedge your own bookmakers acca on the same selections if you wanted to.
So if for example on the Thursday you had the fourfold of uknowwhatimeanharry, let's dance, un de sceaux and yorkhill. If the first two legs went in, and you wanted to hedge, there will be a market for doing so on the exchange.
And it would also give you the opportunity to back or lay the acca yourself on the exchange. So if there are three shorties, and you think at least one will get beat but you don't know which, you could lay the treble on betfairs market. Or if you thought they will all win, you can back the treble on the exchange.
They have stated that they will be hedging their liabilities from their sports books on the exchange, though that could obviously be for any of the runners depending on where the money goes on the day. Not just the runners they are going to be offering multiples markets on.
Make sure u check the mkt rules .. if there is a non-runner, I think they may be treated differently.
Im not totally sure to be honest, this is just my reading of it, I wasnt privvy to the VIP email so im just reading between the lines.
My interpretation was that they will be opening up markets on popular tebles/accas for the day on fancied horses, then they and others will be able to hedge directly in these markets.
So take last year for example, i dont recall the market, though they say there was one which included all the Mullins horses on the opening day.
So there would have been a market say on the treble Min/Douvan/Annie Power. The treble at morning prices paid around 17/1 I think, and a lot of bookmakers would have had liabilities on these trebles.
So the betfair market would have had a back or lay price at around 17 to back 18 to lay perhaps? Im not sure of the exact figures. Then bookmakers could hedge into that market, or punters could do so too, or they could lay the treble if they fancied one of them would get beat, or back it if they fancied them all to win.
Thats my understanding of it, though as I say im just trying to read between the lines, i may have misunderstood completely.
My interpretation was that they will be opening up markets on popular tebles/accas for the day on fancied horses, then they and others will be able to hedge directly in these markets.
So take last year for example, i dont recall the market, though they say there was one which included all the Mullins horses on the opening day.
So there would have been a market say on the treble Min/Douvan/Annie Power. The treble at morning prices paid around 17/1 I think, and a lot of bookmakers would have had liabilities on these trebles.
So the betfair market would have had a back or lay price at around 17 to back 18 to lay perhaps? Im not sure of the exact figures. Then bookmakers could hedge into that market, or punters could do so too, or they could lay the treble if they fancied one of them would get beat, or back it if they fancied them all to win.
Thats my understanding of it, though as I say im just trying to read between the lines, i may have misunderstood completely.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I think you have miss understood. I am may be wrong my self but what it means is they will hedge their liabilty on the remaining runner on the acca,
So if the acca is a selection from race 2,3, 5,6 if 2,3,5 wins than they will be laying of their liability on the selection in race 6.
I think it is highly unlikey they will hedge each individual market. It is there way of having multiple bets risk free. If a couple lose than they are massively up. If the all win they can protect their profits by hedging.
If they have multile of double and trebles than you want to keep an eye on the second race or any possible winning double bet and the same for trebles the third or any other final winning combinations.
This how I understand it.
So if the acca is a selection from race 2,3, 5,6 if 2,3,5 wins than they will be laying of their liability on the selection in race 6.
I think it is highly unlikey they will hedge each individual market. It is there way of having multiple bets risk free. If a couple lose than they are massively up. If the all win they can protect their profits by hedging.
If they have multile of double and trebles than you want to keep an eye on the second race or any possible winning double bet and the same for trebles the third or any other final winning combinations.
This how I understand it.
I don't think it's that. It makes no financial sense to do that. It's not as if they need to shorten up the SP as all the accas will be on best odds guaranteed anyway.
And if it was that, it makes even less sense to announce that's what they are going to be doing.
I just read it as they are going to be offering markets on popular trebles and accas so that they can hedge into those. Which makes more sense to me.
I always thought that bookmakers hedging acca liabilities into the exchange was a myth. Most of the time they tend to drift whe the betting comes through as the price has already collapsed. Ryan moores Royal Ascot was a good example, Euler did a good blog post on it at the time.
And if it was that, it makes even less sense to announce that's what they are going to be doing.
I just read it as they are going to be offering markets on popular trebles and accas so that they can hedge into those. Which makes more sense to me.
I always thought that bookmakers hedging acca liabilities into the exchange was a myth. Most of the time they tend to drift whe the betting comes through as the price has already collapsed. Ryan moores Royal Ascot was a good example, Euler did a good blog post on it at the time.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I understand where your comming from however on day three they have said trebles and 4-folds.
With four selections there is 4 posiible treble combinations and one acca = a totals of 5 bets.
So Betfair will need 5 liquid markets as safe keeping.
I think it is highly unlikely they will have the 5 specials.. additionally if they do they wont be very liquid.
The fact they have metioned it tells me they have big liabilitys already, The acca on the Thurssday pays roughly 51/1 at its current odds. I cant see a 50/1 priced market being very liquid.
I know the odds will get shorter and shorter as they win but the last race will prpbaly go off the same price as the main race market...
If they were all ridden by same trainer or trained by the same trainer than I think its possible, last year the big acca was 4 Ruby Walsh/ R Ricci/ Willie Mullins favourites.
I think the combination they have highlighted is just what they have recieved in alot of bets and are expecting the accas to come from their and more so.
I think they have just shown their hand too. This tells me there big promotion on Thursday is going to be that combination. So if your into value, back the acca now whilst it pays 51/1 with most bookies there probably go 33/1 special on the day.
With four selections there is 4 posiible treble combinations and one acca = a totals of 5 bets.
So Betfair will need 5 liquid markets as safe keeping.
I think it is highly unlikely they will have the 5 specials.. additionally if they do they wont be very liquid.
The fact they have metioned it tells me they have big liabilitys already, The acca on the Thurssday pays roughly 51/1 at its current odds. I cant see a 50/1 priced market being very liquid.
I know the odds will get shorter and shorter as they win but the last race will prpbaly go off the same price as the main race market...
If they were all ridden by same trainer or trained by the same trainer than I think its possible, last year the big acca was 4 Ruby Walsh/ R Ricci/ Willie Mullins favourites.
I think the combination they have highlighted is just what they have recieved in alot of bets and are expecting the accas to come from their and more so.
I think they have just shown their hand too. This tells me there big promotion on Thursday is going to be that combination. So if your into value, back the acca now whilst it pays 51/1 with most bookies there probably go 33/1 special on the day.
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I am sure we have all watched a lot of festival racing, be it Cheltenham, Ascot, Goodwood etc.
Over the years, I tend to feel, that favs represent themselves as Bets, rather than Lays .. as they are generally over-priced, in the win market, as on-course bookies, can field up more horses, in the each-way market.
This differs from the day to day races, as most days, bookies can only field, say 50% f the runners, whilst, at festivals, generally, if u are competitive, everything will be backed.
Anyone, have an opinion ?
On the Matchbook podcast, they have been discussing Lays or Plays, for the week.
Altior/Douvan are both 1.38 or so, roughly 1.9 for the double, and most comentators, thought they would rather back them both, than lay them.
They mentioned Yorkhill/Un des Sceux might be massive shorteners .. anyway, its a good listen, and they are daily preview podcasts.
I wish I was in the UK, to go round the shops .. but am overseas, and will try watch, via ITV stream ?
Over the years, I tend to feel, that favs represent themselves as Bets, rather than Lays .. as they are generally over-priced, in the win market, as on-course bookies, can field up more horses, in the each-way market.
This differs from the day to day races, as most days, bookies can only field, say 50% f the runners, whilst, at festivals, generally, if u are competitive, everything will be backed.
Anyone, have an opinion ?
On the Matchbook podcast, they have been discussing Lays or Plays, for the week.
Altior/Douvan are both 1.38 or so, roughly 1.9 for the double, and most comentators, thought they would rather back them both, than lay them.
They mentioned Yorkhill/Un des Sceux might be massive shorteners .. anyway, its a good listen, and they are daily preview podcasts.
I wish I was in the UK, to go round the shops .. but am overseas, and will try watch, via ITV stream ?