At What Point Should I Just Give up

[JPK65]

Hi Anna,
I did not post my message to start an argument. I was actually hoping for some practical advice. I am sensing a very argumentative/condescending tone from your last reply.

[welshboy06]

I don't think Anna is being condescending at all. To me it looks like shes trying to point out something obvious, which you are probably too close to see. If you can see value in a price (e.g a 5/1 which clearly should be 10/1) then why don't you lay it? You have experience and knowledge of horse racing (unlike me) So use it and see how you do!

[LeTiss]

This thread, plus others we have seen of late, shows why trading is frowned upon by others. It's because the line between trading and gambling is very thin, and it's a line that many cross. The major reason why traders go bust, is because they have gambled to win back losses, or have gambled that the price will come back their way.

I know PW works tirelessly to raise the profile and social acceptability of trading, but he's always going to find that tough work when people keep blowing their banks, due to having an aversion to losses

[Anna List]

Hi Anna,
I did not post my message to start an argument. I was actually hoping for some practical advice. I am sensing a very argumentative/condescending tone from your last reply.

I wasn't being condescending. Why waste your talents trading (for which you have yet to develop the necessary skills) when you already have the necessary backing and laying skills.

Actually, I don't understand why you thought that I was being condescending _ but there ya go.

Anna.

[Anna List]

I don't think Anna is being condescending at all. To me it looks like shes trying to point out something obvious, which you are probably too close to see. If you can see value in a price (e.g a 5/1 which clearly should be 10/1) then why don't you lay it? You have experience and knowledge of horse racing (unlike me) So use it and see how you do!

My thanks, Welshboy.

Anna

[Halliday]

I now believe that most of the movement in the Betfair markets is purely due to trading and has no correlation with the actual chances of a horse winning a race.
[/quote]

The Betfair odds, at the off, do actually represent, and fairly accurately at that, the chances of a horse winning. However, that's only over a large number of horses
Some of my early losses were due to my conviction that a horse’s price at the off would reflect it’s chance of winning the race.
[/quote]

They are but only over a large number of horses is this true.

Anna

Statically that may be true ( tho one can twist statistics anyway you want ). To a large extent it depends what information you are using to determine a horses true odds in any race .The key to Backing horses is looking for value in a horses price ( i.e A horse may be 2/1 but after processing the available information you may think it's should be a Even money chance etc ).

The majority of people don't have time to study form, draw data , speed figures , trainer form and many other variables which affect a horses chance .
And many just "follow the money "

I think I've mentioned this before but a friend of mine used to compile the tissue ( early odds the night before ) for several organisations and on course bookmakers many years ago .. and still does it for his own benefit now. He has over 50 years experience including working as a graduate for Timeform many moons ago.The variations in his prices and those of betfair SP can be huge and in a daily basis , and I know whose odds I'd trust !!

In most races you can find horses that are over or underpriced and odds that bare no relation to their "real chance " of winning .

So I think you are way of the mark in that assertion Anna, despite what the stats may or may not tell us

[JPK65]

When I was a punter it was a good strategy to follow the money. Before the existence of exchanges horses that got backed in from 10/1 to 5/1 were the subject of a genuine gamble, where connections and/or professional gamblers felt that the horse was in peak condition and race conditions suited. Now it is impossible to spot a genuine gamble. I often see favourites drift as if they lost a leg in the parade ring and romp home. I also see 10/1 shots get backed into 5/1 and run along at the back of the field. It is too risky to just back or lay these horses since there may be a genuine reason for the price changes and I am actually opposing smart money in genuine gambles rather than a mere trades.

[Anna List]

In most races you can find horses that are over or underpriced and odds that bare no relation to their "real chance " of winning .

So I think you are way of the mark in that assertion Anna, despite what the stats may or may not tell us

Agreed, there are horses in most races that are under/over priced. That's why I stated that the Betfair odds at the off only represent a horse's chances of winning over a large number of horses.

By way of an example, if we take a large number of horses at 5.0 (Betfair) at the off, then the strike rate of this subset of horses will be approximately 20%. However, within this subset, there will be horses whose odds should be higher and horses whose odds should be lower than 5.0.

Anna.

[ruthlessimon]

It's not quite as simple as following the money, or I think we'd all be rich by now & the failure rate wouldn't be 95%.

"If it's obvious, it's not an opportunity"

[Anna List]

Now it is impossible to spot a genuine gamble. I often see favourites drift as if they lost a leg in the parade ring and romp home. I also see 10/1 shots get backed into 5/1 and run along at the back of the field. It is too risky to just back or lay these horses since there may be a genuine reason for the price changes and I am actually opposing smart money in genuine gambles rather than a mere trades.

I understand your issue now. I was there many moons ago. Over the years, I developed strategies that helped me to separate out the genuine gambles from the non-genuine ones. OK, it's nowhere near 100% accurate but, there again, it doesn't need to be.

You have decided to trade to avoid separating out the genuine from the non-genuine gambles.

Good luck.

[Bluesky]

In hindsight I started to quickly (my stakes were too high), with high expectations. I believe that there is a big problem with learning through practise mode or with inconsequential stakes, since my emotional state would be completely different when I switch to real stakes and hence I would need to learn all over again.

I can understand why you might feel this way, I think may new traders need to have the stakes mean something otherwise they wont take it seriously. Instead of using practise mode or £2 stakes have you thought of using 5, 10 or £20 stakes. Choose a figure that means something but will not mean you lose £100 in a day.

You have lost over a £1000 in five months that to me anyway is quite a lot of money, in your position I would greatly reduce the stakes I was trading with. Have you considered taking a sports trading course. I think Peters is around 3 or 400 quid, you have now had some real trading experience and so should be able to absorb more of the material that is taught than what someone new to trading could take on board.

I'm not saying the course would turn you from a losing into a winning trader over night, I don't think any course can do this, but I think it can put a structure in place for you to follow that with enough practise and the correct mind set might eventually turn your trading around.

[Bluesky]

I have watched all of Peter’s videos and will continue to rerun them, but to be honest; I think that these videos are as much a marketing tool as they are tutorials. If they were truly meant for education he would give as much air time to the pitfalls involved in each strategy, but he seems to be giving the unrealistic impression that, whatever strategy you choose, making money through trading is a simple process.

I think this is a little unfair, but if I had lost over a £1000 in 5 months I might feel the same way too. Peter offers sports trading courses, if he gave away everything that is taught on the courses for free on YouTube, how many people do you think would bother to enrol on his courses?

Have you had a look at mugsgames videos on Youtube he doesn't tend to post up new ones anymore but his older ones are well worth viewing. He uses a different style to Peter and if you watch enough of them you will be able to guess a second or two before he actually does it what action he is going to take. I am not saying this will turn you into a profitable trader, but it should help you to read the market better, which I think is a first step to becoming profitable.

[deggsy10]

I started with a bank of £2000 and now have approximately £850 left. I never dreamed that I would be counting my losses in thousands.

Why not. Whatever happened to the old adage: 'Hope for the best but expect the worst'?

Horse racing (especially over the jumps) is my favourite sport. I am in my early 50s now and I have been a punter off and on for more than 30 years. Yet I think this is more of a hindrance than a help when it comes to trading.

So why are you trading instead of laying or backing?

When I first started trading I thought my experience would help.

But you are an experienced punter/layer - not an experienced trader.

I now believe that most of the movement in the Betfair markets is purely due to trading and has no correlation with the actual chances of a horse winning a race.

The Betfair odds, at the off, do actually represent, and fairly accurately at that, the chances of a horse winning. However, that's only over a large number of horses.

It is not unusual to see a 10/1 chance going off at 5/1 purely due to trading.

Now this is interesting. If you know that a horse's actual chances is 10/1 and it goes off at 5/1, why aren't you laying it? Why are you trading it?

Some of my early losses were due to my conviction that a horse’s price at the off would reflect it’s chance of winning the race.

They are but only over a large number of horses is this true.

In hindsight I started to quickly (my stakes were too high), with high expectations.

Yes. However, my feeling is that if you know that a 5/1 horse ought to be 10/1, you should stop trading. It's a waste of your talents. You ought to be backing or laying, depending.

Oh, by the way. I'm a layer. I have been laying for a long time. I did consider trading. After your post, and others like yours of late, I have decided to stick with what I'm good at - LAYING.

Thanks for your post.

Good luck - whatever you decide.

Anna

You mention several times that he should stop trading and back or lay instead. I thought trading was backing and laying?? Confused.

[dannycutts]

If you give up then you really have failed...

I did badly at the start and then with a lot of help from others and watching tonnes of videos... I developed my own strategy and to be fair it was a bit gambly as I was laying but i am consistent and made a large chunk of change and now I run a bank of less than £100 and trade only dogs and pre race horses... as soon as it goes over £100 I withdraw it to my skrill account...

This keeps me in check and stops me being an idiot!!!

The other thing I have realised is that the best way i could make me profitable was to remove the losers Sounds simple but it made a massive difference to my profits

I am not a giver upper and so I will always keep going and if I run out of money I will hit practice mode till I refine my skills further

[Anna List]

You mention several times that he should stop trading and back or lay instead. I thought trading was backing and laying?? Confused.

Trading is a combination of a back AND a lay bet.

I suggested backing OR laying - which is entirely different.

Anna