2000 Guineas 2019

[SeaHorseRacing]

He isnt entered in the derby so far so i assume hes a speed horse possibly heading for the st james palace after the 2000 guineas ... i got 8/1 for the 2000 guineas though i only put £10 on ... the rowley mile will be a test but hopefully he'll improve by then

If you take away the second horse on Saturday. There is 4 lengths between 1st and 3rd. This hasn’t happened on the middle Park in 10 years.

It’s either a super weak renewal or the first two are top class.

He should run in dewhurst in two weeks. If he does he definetly go Guineas assuming he’s in the first 2.

[SeaHorseRacing]

For those concerned about the 1 mile. Churchill who won the Guineas started over 6f. He’s entered for Dewhurst. If he wasn’t a miler he will 100% not run in the dewhurst.

[elofan0]

The rise to the top has been a rapid one for Ten Sovereigns, who made his racecourse debut just over a month ago. In a 36-day period the colt has notched three victories, his latest a half-length defeat of Jash under Donnacha O'Brien, who was completing a treble on the card.
Ten Sovereigns certainly passed the Group 1 litmus test, as he travelled powerfully under O'Brien before coming to the front with over a furlong left to run. He was joined by Jash and the pair pulled clear of the field in the manner of two smart performers.
It might be the last time racegoers see Ten Sovereigns this year, with O'Brien of the opinion that the colt has done a lot in a short period of time, although he is entered for the Darley Dewhurst Stakes back at the course next month.

"He's not long out since he started and we rushed two runs in together," the trainer said. "He just about made this one back and I think to be fair to him the best thing would be to leave him alone."

[SeaHorseRacing]

Thanks for that. Very impressive to achieve what he has in such a short period of time.

he runs in the Guineas

[elofan0]

sounds good to me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFypTm36r9o

[SeaHorseRacing]

TEN SOVEREIGNS.

7/1 currently for 2000 Guineas. Think he’s special.

Not antipost fav... we’ll yet.

Not sure he will get the Guineas mile , even his trainer has his doubts ..

“He’s a very fast horse - a lot of speed,” said O’Brien. “He won’t get much further than a mile - if he gets a mile.”

Both him and Jash look more like sprinters and could see either of them winning the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot rather than the Guineas. Bookies seem to agree as he’s between 3/1 and 5/1 for that race next season

Time will tell but wouldn’t want to back either for the Guineas

O'Brien said: "Although we stated after his Middle Park win that Ten Sovereigns was probably finished for the season, he came out of the race very well and it's quite possible he will go to the Dewhurst. We're thinking about it, and a decision will be made probably on Wednesday."

[Halliday]

TEN SOVEREIGNS.

7/1 currently for 2000 Guineas. Think he’s special.

Not antipost fav... we’ll yet.

Not sure he will get the Guineas mile , even his trainer has his doubts ..

“He’s a very fast horse - a lot of speed,” said O’Brien. “He won’t get much further than a mile - if he gets a mile.”

Both him and Jash look more like sprinters and could see either of them winning the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot rather than the Guineas. Bookies seem to agree as he’s between 3/1 and 5/1 for that race next season

Time will tell but wouldn’t want to back either for the Guineas

O'Brien said: "Although we stated after his Middle Park win that Ten Sovereigns was probably finished for the season, he came out of the race very well and it's quite possible he will go to the Dewhurst. We're thinking about it, and a decision will be made probably on Wednesday."

Could be a cracking race if the Non O’Brien trained runners stand their ground..he has eight of the twelve hirers declared !!

[Halliday]

Incidentally full sister to Ten Sovereigns and full brother to Too Darn Hot up for sale at Tattersall’s later this week.




Lot 103
b f No Nay Never - Seeking Solace (Exceed And Excel)
Consigned by Camas Park Stud

No Nay Never's blistering start at stud, with 25 winners and five stakes scorers among his debut two-year-olds, has meant his second crop have been in huge demand already this sales season, with his yearlings fetching as much as €700,000.

And things could reach yet more dizzying heights when this filly takes her turn in the ring on Tuesday, as she is a sister to the sire's leading light, Ten Sovereigns.

Her older brother is simply listed as 'in training' in the catalogue, but has packed a huge amount in since the publication date, winning all three starts in the manner of a horse destined for greatness, including the Round Tower Stakes and the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes on his latest start.



Lot 325
b c Dubawi - Dar Re Mi (Singspiel)
Watership Down Stud

This colt brings huge star potential to the Tattersalls ring, as not only is he by one of the world's best stallions and out of a three-time Group 1-winning mare, his already deep page has been subject to some major recent enhancements.

He is a brother to Too Darn Hot, simply listed as 'in training' in the catalogue but now the winner of three races, including the Solario and Champagne Stakes. He produced deeply impressive performances in those heats and is a warm order for Saturday's Group 1 Dewhurst

Moreover, this colt is also a brother to Lah Ti Dar, who has added a ten-length romp in the Listed Galtres Stakes and a fine second in the St Leger to her race record since the catalogue's publication.

With Too Darn Hot favourite for next year's 2,000 Guineas and Derby, and Lah Ti Dar due to stay in training in 2018, there is no telling what this colt's pedigree could look like in 12 months' time.

[elofan0]

I think he raced Ten sovereigns too many times in a short time so maybe we will see a different horse in the guineas who knows ... one thing i would say is the Jockey had him switched off at a good crusing speed before letting him go in his last race where as the 2nd was being deployed a lot earlier ... they both drew away from their field but Ten sovereigns jockey did look like he was confident he was on the winner

[SeaHorseRacing]

I’m really sure Ten Sovereigns is Ballydoyles number 1 Guineas hope and I think him running on Saturday is the confirmation they want.
They want the proof he’s a Guineas horse before the end of the season and the fact he’s going run again at a Newmarket shows they want Guineas with him.

Plenty of G1s over 6/7f he could of run over in Ireland but they’ve now opted for two Newmarket group races.

Very interesting. Think donnacha will stay on and Ryan rides Van Dyk on Sat.

[Halliday]

I think he raced Ten sovereigns too many times in a short time so maybe we will see a different horse in the guineas who knows ... one thing i would say is the Jockey had him switched off at a good crusing speed before letting him go in his last race where as the 2nd was being deployed a lot earlier ... they both drew away from their field but Ten sovereigns jockey did look like he was confident he was on the winner

That’s the way Ballydoyle/ Coolmore race there horses, US Navy Flag was having his 10th race when he won the Dewhurst last year, having previously won the same two races as Ten Sovereigns ( Round Tower Stakes And Middle Park), and then went to the Breeders cup.

Saxon Warrior ran in the Irish Derby then seven days later ran in the Eclipse, Anthony Van Dyck ran thre times in a month.
Their fillies seem to run even more , Group winners Sizzling and Broadway have run 23 times this year between then.Music Box who won a Group three at Doncaster last backend was having her 16 th race of the season .

Most run of the mill handicappers dont run that many times in a year , let alone group class horses !!

It’s all about the breeding side of their operation, proving durability on the racecourse and adding value to colts and mares for stud. That’s why they have no issue with running their horses against each other even to the detriment of losing a horses unbeaten record . They have over 500 broodmares alone in Ireland , and breeding operations throughout the world .

How many times has the perceived number one O’Brien horse been beaten by a lesser fancied one ?

[elofan0]

True Halliday ive seen it time and time again when stables have the red hot fav they go in with a bigger priced one
I dont think we seen the best of Ten sovereigns yet ... the times one of the fastest that was run in that event and he was switched off entering the dip .. I do prefer a top jockey on a top horse

[Halliday]

True Halliday ive seen it time and time again when stables have the red hot fav they go in with a bigger priced one
I dont think we seen the best of Ten sovereigns yet ... the times one of the fastest that was run in that event and he was switched off entering the dip .. I do prefer a top jockey on a top horse

There are certain jockeys that excel at front running, at certain tracks etc , but nearly all the stats produced on Jockey performance v expectation etc show that there is very little between the top 100 jockeys .

Where it does make a big difference is when you have an apprentice claiming his allowance when clearly he doesn’t need it , James Bowen being the best recent example .

The knack is to know before everybody else does or the value is lost

[bobs71]

That’s the way Ballydoyle/ Coolmore race there horses,



How many times has the perceived number one O’Brien horse been beaten by a lesser fancied one ?
[/quote]

Regarding O'Brien's record with horses where he has multi-entries (2 or more runners in a race) the following shows his record since 2011 with all runners in such races and filtered by Favoritism status & also Market Rank (SP) - along with various Betfair market metrics -Non Favourites as a group win around 10% but of course varies with position in the market

AOB24.PNG

I would not specifically say that O'Brien campaigns his horses as you suggest , although does have higher race frequencies than say Gosden or Haggas
The following shows his average seasonal race frequency for 2yos and 3yos since 2011 - along with % figures of 5 runs and over for a 2yo and 6 runs and over for a 3yo

AOB25.PNG

[bobs71]

Seahorse - a few days ago i had "thought" i had sent you a large message on sectional / time data regarding Ten Sovereigns as requested - and now realise that i did not press send FFS - will get it to you later on pal. Very interesting horse.