Another Stupid Martingale Question

[ShaunWhite]

These examples show that doubling a number, doubling that new number, and continuing on in this way quickly results in very large numbers. Adding all those large numbers up produces an even bigger number. [/b][/i]

I've seen the rice on a chessboard example before, it was in a daft YT cartoon that showed how a prisoner escaped with his life by tricking the queen into a bet she could never win or something like that; one of these stupid pub bet vids.

There's two sources for the rice/wheat 'chessboard' problem, in the one from 1256 the story is attributed to the inventor of chess who asked for that in payment from the monarch for inventing the game. They accepted assuming it would be a meager amount. I'm sure I heard a third one on the radio the other day but can't remember it, I think that one went back to the mid 5th century. Definitely before YT though

[Derek27]

Opinion is also divided as to whether the king, upon realising how much rice he owed, took it as a joke or had the inventor of chess executed for being cheeky!

[ShaunWhite]

Opinion is also divided as to whether the king, upon realising how much rice he owed, took it as a joke or had the inventor of chess executed for being cheeky!

Or he became a high ranking advisor apparently.....
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_a ... rd_problem

This thread has turned into "In our time" (the radio prog not the book obv)

[Derek27]

Opinion is also divided as to whether the king, upon realising how much rice he owed, took it as a joke or had the inventor of chess executed for being cheeky!

Or he became a high ranking advisor apparently.....
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_a ... rd_problem

This thread has turned into "In our time" (the radio prog not the book obv)

I bet he was crap at chess!

Ask a question about the Martingale and it's not surprising members quickly get bored of the discussion.

[MugPunter]

Thanks for all the esoteric philosophy folks!!
Back to the martingale stupidity and ignorance question, let us assume that statistically, my trading strategy had a 66% success rate and that on any trading day I was only prepared to lose 2% of my trading bank, if I doubled up on loss days, how long until I go broke?

[ShaunWhite]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin

If you can figure out out the maths I think the answer is in here somewhere

[Derek27]

Thanks for all the esoteric philosophy folks!!
Back to the martingale stupidity and ignorance question, let us assume that statistically, my trading strategy had a 66% success rate and that on any trading day I was only prepared to lose 2% of my trading bank, if I doubled up on loss days, how long until I go broke?

Depends what you mean by "prepared to lose 2%". If you mean prepared to risk 2%, you would never hit zero as you would always have 98% of your bank left, but once you're down to 50p you wouldn't be able to stake less than 2%.

A 66% strike-rate doesn't tell us anything - it depends on the amounts you win and lose.

[Derek27]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin

If you can figure out out the maths I think the answer is in here somewhere

This is the one the OP requires.

Martingale (betting system)

I'm no mathematician but I understood this paper and thought it's well explained.

I think the Bet Angel site is infested with a virus that has mutated and jumped the bridge to humans. Earlier today we had a member asking how to make money from betting without going to the trouble of placing bets, and now we have a member who wants advice on how to lose money and how quickly it can be done!!!!

[Derek27]

SHIT!!!

Don't read the last paragraph of the link MugPunter!

[gutuami]

Thanks for all the esoteric philosophy folks!!
Back to the martingale stupidity and ignorance question, let us assume that statistically, my trading strategy had a 66% success rate and that on any trading day I was only prepared to lose 2% of my trading bank, if I doubled up on loss days, how long until I go broke?

just press F9 for updates

[MugPunter]

SHIT!!!

Don't read the last paragraph of the link MugPunter!

Thanks, I'm definitely Anit-martingale now!!!!

[MugPunter]

Thanks for all the esoteric philosophy folks!!
Back to the martingale stupidity and ignorance question, let us assume that statistically, my trading strategy had a 66% success rate and that on any trading day I was only prepared to lose 2% of my trading bank, if I doubled up on loss days, how long until I go broke?

just press F9 for updates

Thanks Gutuami, nice sheet!!! Everytime martingale is mentioned the Betangel police come charging out with trudgeon in hand, but I guess they're in the business of selling software subscriptions.

[Derek27]

Everytime martingale is mentioned the Betangel police come charging out with trudgeon in hand, but I guess they're in the business of selling software subscriptions.

Everybody who replied to your post is a member of this forum, not Betangel. We're not in the business of selling software subscriptions

[ShaunWhite]

Thanks Gutuami, nice sheet!!! Everytime martingale is mentioned the Betangel police come charging out with trudgeon in hand, but I guess they're in the business of selling software subscriptions.

It looks even worse when you factor in the commission.

btw +1 on Derek's comment, I'm nothing to do with BA either.
Not 'police', just the normal concern any person would have if they saw someone who's just about to jump off a bridge.

My take on martingales and such 'systems' is that if hundereds of thousands of people have spent hundreds of years studying gambling (lets say a million man years), and martingales still have a bad reputation, then my few grey cells aren't going to find a magic way to make it work. Ditto every other hair-brained, over-simplified, get rich easy scheme that every new gambler thinks they've discovered, but was actually disproven about 500 years ago.

[MugPunter]

Thanks Gutuami, nice sheet!!! Everytime martingale is mentioned the Betangel police come charging out with trudgeon in hand, but I guess they're in the business of selling software subscriptions.

It looks even worse when you factor in the commission.

btw +1 on Derek's comment, I'm nothing to do with BA either.
Not 'police', just the normal concern any person would have if they saw someone who's just about to jump off a bridge.

My take on martingales and such 'systems' is that if hundereds of thousands of people have spent hundreds of years studying gambling (lets say a million man years), and martingales still have a bad reputation, then my few grey cells aren't going to find a magic way to make it work. Ditto every other hair-brained, over-simplified, get rich easy scheme that every new gambler thinks they've discovered, but was actually disproven about 500 years ago.

Thanks for bringing out the cudgel again, did you take the time to look at Gutuami's spread sheet or read Derek's link which included Anit-martingale?