Betfair trading strategies & systems

[ruthlessimon]

The Lay the draw was called the football cash generator. Marketing angle was "imagine a cash machine that just pays out constantly". Hmmm..

Out of interest, surely lay the draw still works - but - as information is leaked/found, to stay ahead we have to: spot the "improvements" that weren't necessarily needed to be known in the early days?

Is that the key to longevity, & sustaining real edge?

[wearthefoxhat]

The Lay the draw was called the football cash generator. Marketing angle was "imagine a cash machine that just pays out constantly". Hmmm..

Out of interest, surely lay the draw still works - but - as information is leaked/found, to stay ahead we have to: spot the "improvements" that weren't necessarily needed to be known in the early days?

Is that the key to longevity, & sustaining real edge?

Might have another old .pdf somewhere on that one too.

(By the way, I got all these .pdf's free on a now defunct forum. Back in the day it was a bit like swap-shop with everyone generously posting up the most recently advertised crud so we could all make our own minds up)

[ruthlessimon]

Might have another old .pdf somewhere on that one too.

If you've still got it, that'd be really interesting to see. Although annoyingly it'd be impossible for me to test the criteria .

I'm just fascinated by the secrets to longevity - which atm I have no answer - other than hope! Problem is, I bet the lay the draw guys thought the same

[Euler]

I think it would be interesting to put a few 'systems' on the forum for us all to have a look at and comment / argue / attack / delve.

I've never seen a single system sold that was correct in assumptions. They just found something that won often and dressed it up to sell.

[wearthefoxhat]

Might have another old .pdf somewhere on that one too.

If you've still got it, that'd be really interesting to see. Although annoyingly it'd be impossible for me to test the criteria .

I'm just fascinated by the secrets to longevity - which atm I have no answer - other than hope! Problem is, I bet the lay the draw guys thought the same

I find it fascinating too. Over the years there's been so much dross peddled, but it does stir the creative juices.

The Football Cash Generator was a hybrid from a controversial "system" from someone known as Dr Slicer. (you couldn't make it up) Yes, I did have a .pdf but binned it, but the internet has the info. It was controversial because some of the games used as examples would not of had the required liability to complete the trade,

Slicer1.GIF

The Football Cash Generator - A vague rip off

FCG.GIF

As with any stuff written, there is something that can be gleaned from the method(s). The principle of a hedge position pre-off, that can be traded In-Play is a fair one, but one would need to ensure sufficient liquidity on other markets to do so. Add in the mix, extra betfair commission taken if another market used to green out. ie. Correct Score/Match Odds, then Over/Under market for a 3rd hedge.

[Euler]

I've renamed the thread in honour of it's new role.

One system I became quickly aware of was 'Peters £50 a day system'

I became aware of it because people kept giving me flack over 'my' system. Of course I had nothing to do with it but the name sort of implied I did. I complained to them and they added the word 'Butler' to the Peter bit. But I still get the odd message about it.

It is basically, lay the field and chase your losses.

[wearthefoxhat]

I've renamed the thread in honour of it's new role.

One system I became quickly aware of was 'Peters £50 a day system'

I became aware of it because people kept giving me flack over 'my' system. Of course I had nothing to do with it but the name sort of implied I did. I complained to them and they added the word 'Butler' to the Peter bit. But I still get the odd message about it.

It is basically, lay the field and chase your losses.

More recently (if it's the same Peter) he does the same, but focusses on a laying the first horse to reach 2.0 or lower. If it goes on to win the race, then chase with the next race...etc... until you have a loser (win for you). This is essentially a martingale staking plan..we all know how that could end. Admittedly, it's a low liability method, so the losing run can be sustained for a little longer.

The aim is to make £50 a day from a £500 bank... There is an alternative staking plan, that reduces the stake after some losses (for you).

Yes, I have a .pdf somewhere too.

[Derek27]

He may well be making £50 if just one idiot purchases every day!

https://moneymakersreviewed.co.uk/revie ... d-testing/

[wearthefoxhat]

He may well be making £50 if just one idiot purchases every day!

https://moneymakersreviewed.co.uk/revie ... d-testing/

Yep...you got it for nowt..

[ANGELS15]

Going back to the original post about the Betfair ATM. The idea probably has/had some merit. However along with other in-play strategies when they were first devised they were clever but any edges they had were soon lost. In the case of the Betfair ATM you're relying on some kind of programme to place your bets on time. I suspect though that over many years with on-course proffessionals who may specialise in the place market that you're unlikely to get much value with the better prices being snapped up early when they can see a horse will definately place.

In order to get the bets taken I assume your selection would have to get into a group of 2-4 that have pulled a long way clear of the others. By the time that has happened the value may have gone. But even in those situations where you think you're guaranteed a place your selection could still fall or something comes out of the clouds mowing down those in the lead and robbing you of a place.

As you're betting odds on at likely odds of less than 1.3 you would only need the odd loser to wipe out your profits.

[Kai]

This thread reminded me of a video that I saw on Youtube a few years back. Looks like that person deleted their Youtube account so I've just randomly uploaded it elsewhere. Just for science, make of it what you will, that is how they named the video in the first place

https://vimeo.com/356388600

[Derek27]

As you're betting odds on at likely odds of less than 1.3 you would only need the odd loser to wipe out your profits.

What really blows my mind is that he's looking for a bet with a 50% chance of winning and then backing it at 1.3

If he can't see the folly you'd think his subscribers would!

[wearthefoxhat]

Going back to the original post about the Betfair ATM. The idea probably has/had some merit. However along with other in-play strategies when they were first devised they were clever but any edges they had were soon lost. In the case of the Betfair ATM you're relying on some kind of programme to place your bets on time. I suspect though that over many years with on-course proffessionals who may specialise in the place market that you're unlikely to get much value with the better prices being snapped up early when they can see a horse will definately place.

In order to get the bets taken I assume your selection would have to get into a group of 2-4 that have pulled a long way clear of the others. By the time that has happened the value may have gone. But even in those situations where you think you're guaranteed a place your selection could still fall or something comes out of the clouds mowing down those in the lead and robbing you of a place.

As you're betting odds on at likely odds of less than 1.3 you would only need the odd loser to wipe out your profits.

I think the original rules set were dependant on the user manually deciding to bet in the place market, only if the win odds reached a certain point. This in itself would have been hit and miss, sometimes getting on late and sometimes getting higher odds. The 1.30 was a target, but I sense was more an average over time.

Nowadays, automation could easily cover the trigger points as long it looked at the win markets before firing a bet in the place market.

The original rules didn't require watching the race, although I would advocate doing so for sure.

[wearthefoxhat]

This thread reminded me of a video that I saw on Youtube a few years back. Looks like that person deleted their Youtube account so I've just randomly uploaded it elsewhere. Just for science, make of it what you will, that is how they named the video in the first place

https://vimeo.com/356388600

Could do with that person posting up a few .pdf's...

[wearthefoxhat]

As you're betting odds on at likely odds of less than 1.3 you would only need the odd loser to wipe out your profits.

What really blows my mind is that he's looking for a bet with a 50% chance of winning and then backing it at 1.3

If he can't see the folly you'd think his subscribers would!

In the place market you would have 3 chances to place. 1/3 = 1.33....or am I missing something.