Is This Bank Idea Completely Wrong?

[Derek27]

I am trying to develop a plan for a bank but this all new to me. My plan is to have £100 and divide it by 10. I am double each £10 unit into £20. 7 of them double and 3 of I trade in for loss at £10. So I turn £100 into £150. If I can make 50% each month that would be fantastic but the concept of running a bank is completely new to me. What are peoples thoughts please?

Where have you got the 7/3 figures from?

[ShaunWhite]

Data is just a guide surely.

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

[Derek27]

Data is just a guide surely.

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

... and I'm good looking.

[JustLukeYou]

I watched a video tonight from a guy who looks matches at 0-0 at half time then backs 1 goal to be scored and claims to do very well from it.

And you know and trust this guy enough to open your wallet and put money on the table?

I am going to look out if the opportunity arises and test it. He explains the process in full, sounds quite responsible. I am testing things for £1-2.

[Kai]

I watched a video tonight from a guy who looks matches at 0-0 at half time then backs 1 goal to be scored and claims to do very well from it.

And you know and trust this guy enough to open your wallet and put money on the table?

I am going to look out if the opportunity arises and test it. He explains the process in full, sounds quite responsible. I am testing things for £1-2.

I like your enthusiasm (considering you've opened your tenth thread in the last 2 days) which I feel is a basic requirement to get anywhere with trading. But you will eventually realize that the Youtube videos that you keep mentioning ironically show you how not to trade, so testing their various strategies may be a waste of time. I know a lot of people that have been doing this for years and they're basically running around in circles never getting to the core of the matter. Afaik besides Bet Angel videos there's no other English speaking football trading videos that are worth watching, just compare the two and you should realize that sooner rather than later.

[Dallas]

And you know and trust this guy enough to open your wallet and put money on the table?

I am going to look out if the opportunity arises and test it. He explains the process in full, sounds quite responsible. I am testing things for £1-2.

I like your enthusiasm (considering you've opened your tenth thread in the last 2 days) which I feel is a basic requirement to get anywhere with trading. But you will eventually realize that the Youtube videos that you keep mentioning ironically show you how not to trade, so testing their various strategies may be a waste of time. I know a lot of people that have been doing this for years and they're basically running around in circles never getting to the core of the matter. Afaik besides Bet Angel videos there's no other English speaking football trading videos that are worth watching, just compare the two and you should realize that sooner rather than later.

https://www.betangel.tv/videos/betfair- ... all-soccer

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

I have watched many of these videos. I have also been looking at tipster websites. Some are completely free but there are predictions can be quite poor. Is there I can get good predictions from that I can use as information?

[ShaunWhite]

Hi,

I have watched many of these videos. I have also been looking at tipster websites. Some are completely free but there are predictions can be quite poor. Is there I can get good predictions from that I can use as information?

Rather than looking at tipsters, it's best to try and form your own opinion about how a match might progress. Tipsters are often only tipsters because they're not already making money from their own advice. If you've watched all the videos you'll be familiar with the idea that if you're copying what other people are doing then the edge will already be diluted to some extend due to the competion for the available money.
https://www.soccerstats.com/

[Kai]

Hi,

I have watched many of these videos. I have also been looking at tipster websites. Some are completely free but there are predictions can be quite poor. Is there I can get good predictions from that I can use as information?

I personally think that's a flawed concept to begin with, thinking that you need to be good with your predictions in order to profit. That's probably one of the main stumbling blocks for the majority of people, if you're trying to trade then why think like a gambler? Makes no sense, you have to think like a trader. Read the situation in the game, frame your trade, define your risk/reward, work out your own price for something to happen and compare it to the price on offer, patiently wait and scan the markets for good opportunities etc. If you posses the above skills then you don't care how good your "predictions" are, they can be very average and you'll still be in profit. The only concept that matters is the concept of +EV, your job as a trader is to just fill in the details and find the situations that give +EV in the long term.

I probably explained it better here, hopefully that makes sense : viewtopic.php?p=198768#p198768

[JustLukeYou]

I have just been watching an Australian match. I saw 3 opportunities to make a profit and didn't take any of them.

I was very confident there would be one more goals and that Adelaide would score it quite soon.

Very frustrating not taking these opportunities even if just for a pence as practice.

[Kai]

I have just been watching an Australian match. I saw 3 opportunities to make a profit and didn't take any of them.

I was very confident there would be one more goals and that Adelaide would score it quite soon.

You obviously weren't confident enough to take on any of those opportunities, even with test stakes, not much point lying to yourself. But you're not actually looking to profit at this stage, are you? So why let it frustrate you to miss out on a few pennies, the whole exercise for you was to try and read the game and nothing else. But who even cares about one Australian match, you keep mentioning individual games and they don't actually mean a thing, you need hundreds of them (at least) to know where you stand. If you're well in profit after hundreds then you may be on to something, but even then it won't guarantee that you'll be able to do it with bigger stakes because that's when real emotions come into play and you will be tested in every imaginable way.

Very frustrating not taking these opportunities even if just for a pence as practice.

That's exactly what led to my one and only tilt that ultimately cost me a good chunk of my bank, sheer frustration that I kept missing out on opportunities. Google FOMO in the context of trading. If you're getting frustrated with pennies that's probably not a very good sign of things to come.

[JustLukeYou]

I have just been watching an Australian match. I saw 3 opportunities to make a profit and didn't take any of them.

I was very confident there would be one more goals and that Adelaide would score it quite soon.

You obviously weren't confident enough to take on any of those opportunities, even with test stakes, not much point lying to yourself. But you're not actually looking to profit at this stage, are you? So why let it frustrate you to miss out on a few pennies, the whole exercise for you was to try and read the game and nothing else. But who even cares about one Australian match, you keep mentioning individual games and they don't actually mean a thing, you need hundreds of them (at least) to know where you stand. If you're well in profit after hundreds then you may be on to something, but even then it won't guarantee that you'll be able to do it with bigger stakes because that's when real emotions come into play and you will be tested in every imaginable way.

Very frustrating not taking these opportunities even if just for a pence as practice.

That's exactly what led to my one and only tilt that ultimately cost me a good chunk of my bank, sheer frustration that I kept missing out on opportunities. Google FOMO in the context of trading. If you're getting frustrated with pennies that's probably not a very good sign of things to come.

I have read in a few places that the best football traders pounce the opportunities when they see them. This is the first Australian league match of the season so I can't do any research so not that concerned but I want to get into the rhythm of backing the opportunities when I strongly suspect an event will happen.

I understand what FOMO is but there is no good watching lots of matches and not taking the opportunities like the successful traders do.

[Kai]

It fully depends on the price, not every opportunity is worth pursuing. The most obvious things in football usually have a garbage price attached to it so they're not real opportunities, the value might be on the opposite side but it doesn't look like you're taking prices into account at all. By all means, read as much as you can, can never have too much information and advice. But what you should be reading the most is your P&L, a few posts about how you've successfully predicted a goal or something isn't proof of edge, only your P&L is. You have nothing to prove to anyone else on the forum or elsewhere, only to yourself that you have an actual edge. If you get a large sample of trades there and you like what you see then maybe you have an edge of sorts, then you can start thinking of taking the next step and putting some money where your mouth is. Not sure about others but I personally don't think you have any sort of an edge over the market yet, based on all your posts and based on my personal experiences and the experiences of many of my friends/colleagues that went through the exact same process on football. If you see one movie plenty of times then you sort of already know how it ends.

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

I understand what you mean. These have been good profit margins. It does surprise me, I see people backing 1.07 when there is still 15 minutes left. I can't see the value in that unless it is bookmakers backing off or something like that. Adelaide were 2-1 down. I was confident they were score and they did. I think was around 7. They scored and it went down to 3. It's this sort of opportunity I am seeing but not always backing.

Surely you need to that these opportunities to be successful at trading.

How long have you been trading for?

[Kai]

How long have you been trading for?

Almost 6 years, 5 of those full time, although it feels like 50 years tbh The reason why it feels like 50 years is because of the enormous amount of things I had to learn. Here's a decent video that near the end explains how we perceive time when discovering novel things, and why time speeds up when we aren't : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIx2N-viNwY

It does surprise me, I see people backing 1.07 when there is still 15 minutes left. I can't see the value in that unless it is bookmakers backing off or something like that.

Not all of the money that you see on the exchange comes from actual people and/or traders, the markets are more or less efficient in the long term so basically they don't care about the short term, thus leaving space for traders to exploit.

Surely you need to that these opportunities to be successful at trading.

Quite the opposite imho, you couldn't give a toss if you missed a single opportunity or an entire day or week, that's the beauty of being a trader. If you're a good trader you will spot an endless amount of opportunities, too many to effectively take advantage of, so it's a pointless exercise to obsess about single opportunities.

Can recommend to watch this video diary playlist from arguably the best football trader on the exchange (not many can produce a 6 figure result on 1 match), there are English subtitles and if you ignore the marketing stuff directed towards the Brazilians you should get a lot of value from it : https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=P ... CzuHNC6k3o