Strike Rate (Poll)

[Kai]

Did he ever learn to use the ladder? I've never used one-click grid for that very reason - you never know what price you're taking.

No idea, heard his name mentioned a few times before so looked at his last 2 threads and found his channel. He does have some prerace ladder vids so obviously knows how to use the ladder, which is even more baffling.

I probably linked the wrong vid, his horse could have easily lost in this one, how many times have you seen that happen in the final stretch when turbo kicks in, his first back could have landed anywhere from 1.08 to 2.62, and then he even doubled the stake at 1.01 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGGF1qKIt4I

If it's working for him then it's all about confidence in his case, as there's very little skill involved here, if any. I whine but it's absolutely fantastic that there's participants like that on the exchange in general, Peter has to promote grid view more

[spreadbetting]

Confidence or market generosity aren't going to keep you green in the long run, it's all down to skill. I do agree the strike rate is a bit of a pointless indicator to how well you're doing though, but at the end of the day skill is the thing that's helping you maintain a profitable strike rate whether that's 50% or 90%.

[Derek27]

Did he ever learn to use the ladder? I've never used one-click grid for that very reason - you never know what price you're taking.

No idea, heard his name mentioned a few times before so looked at his last 2 threads and found his channel. He does have some prerace ladder vids so obviously knows how to use the ladder, which is even more baffling.

I probably linked the wrong vid, his horse could have easily lost in this one, how many times have you seen that happen in the final stretch when turbo kicks in, his first back could have landed anywhere from 1.08 to 2.62, and then he even doubled the stake at 1.01 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGGF1qKIt4I

If it's working for him then it's all about confidence in his case, as there's very little skill involved here, if any. I whine but it's absolutely fantastic that there's participants like that on the exchange in general, Peter has to promote grid view more

That's the one I saw, quite incredible. £200 to win £44, and then another £200 to win just £2!!! It's a case of traders colourblindness - you only see the green figures but not the reds.

[jamesg46]

Did he ever learn to use the ladder? I've never used one-click grid for that very reason - you never know what price you're taking.

No idea, heard his name mentioned a few times before so looked at his last 2 threads and found his channel. He does have some prerace ladder vids so obviously knows how to use the ladder, which is even more baffling.

I probably linked the wrong vid, his horse could have easily lost in this one, how many times have you seen that happen in the final stretch when turbo kicks in, his first back could have landed anywhere from 1.08 to 2.62, and then he even doubled the stake at 1.01 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGGF1qKIt4I

If it's working for him then it's all about confidence in his case, as there's very little skill involved here, if any. I whine but it's absolutely fantastic that there's participants like that on the exchange in general, Peter has to promote grid view more

I honestly dont think he has/had any confidence, I watched the video last night & I could hear the nerves when he was talking through his method. I dont think there was any skill or confidence, I think he may have found himself on the right side of luck a few times and ultimately he either knew it then or does now.

[Kai]

Well he was certainly confident enough to publish videos on Youtube and come here to offer his strategy to everyone who wanted it. It's all speculation but he did use lower stakes in his most recent video, compared to the stakes a couple years ago, which suggests that he may have been burned once or twice

[jamesg46]

It's strange, I can't work it out, from reading some of the thread I got that he wasn't after selling a system & from watching his video I could hear his nerves but yet, like you say, he was confident enough to come on the forum with it.... maybe he was/is living a false reality. I'm not sure, like you say, its just speculation.

[Kai]

Sorry for sidetracking your thread, probably not really worth discussing Loliver123 and his approach at length. Don't think he wanted to sell anything, looks like he just wanted to help people out since he struggled so much. Pretty sure he made that strategy work for him regardless, I've met traders that use a similar approach but they get involved a bit earlier and a bit smarter.

[jamesg46]

My name isn't Nivi, there is no terms & conditions to the thread

[Derek27]

My name isn't Nivi, there is no terms & conditions to the thread

Pics of milf mother please?

[jamesg46]

My name isn't Nivi, there is no terms & conditions to the thread

Pics of milf mother please?

[jamesg46]

Thanks for the votes & conversation guys, interestingly my conclusion was Confidence which got the least amount of votes (I'm not saying I'm right or anyone is wrong) I'll just give my own thoughts behind it & if I'm wrong I'm sure I'll be pointed in the correct direction

Skill: I chose to look past this because I think skill is something that once you've acquired it's yours to keep & its valid until the market no longer accepts it, for example loss of an edge. I cant imagine many people forget how to ride a bike, the bike just may become too old & ultimately faster, more stream lined bikes come along. I also thought that areas such as risk management were better suited to skill but that's something else.

Market Generosity: for me this does have some impact but I wouldn't be relying on this because, well you still need skill and confidence.

So ultimately my conclusion was confidence, purely because you can have the other two and without confidence you're not going to use them effectively or efficiently, if at all.

My place of conflict here, which I noticed some of you guys also had & would of preferred to be in camp dual... was, if I had of asked the same question but aimed one at Quants and one at discretionary then I thought the results for quants would have been what they are now & the results for discretionary would be confidence.

That's just my thoughts and thank you all for taking part in my ponder.

[ruthlessimon]

Thanks for the votes & conversation guys, interestingly my conclusion was Confidence which got the least amount of votes (I'm not saying I'm right or anyone is wrong)

I wanna know who the 3rd person is

The reason I picked it. Atm, assuming my trading perfectly reflects my backtests, I should have a strikerate of around 55%. I can't do anything about that number, it's just a metric of the strategy.

However, when I get risk averse (lack of confidence), for whatever reason, that % starts rising. Again, why I love data & videos, because I can measure the difference between expectation & reality. Either I can measure the premium of my personality, or highlight errors with my backtests

& tbh that video (https://youtu.be/J1kZXbCDxTQ?t=107) highlights it perfectly. You can hear the fear in Oli's voice @ 01:49 he wants out, & if he gets out, he's gonna raise his strikerate - but the amount of skill being shown there is debatable; imho

[jamesg46]

Thanks for the votes & conversation guys, interestingly my conclusion was Confidence which got the least amount of votes (I'm not saying I'm right or anyone is wrong)

I wanna know who the 3rd person is

The reason I picked it. Atm, assuming my trading perfectly reflects my backtests, I should have a strikerate of around 55%. I can't do anything about that number, it's just a metric of the strategy.

However, when I get risk averse (lack of confidence), for whatever reason, that % starts rising. Again, why I love data & videos, because I can measure the difference between expectation & reality. Either I can measure the premium of my personality, or highlight errors with my backtests

& tbh that video (https://youtu.be/J1kZXbCDxTQ?t=107) highlights it perfectly. You can hear the fear in Oli's voice @ 01:49 he wants out, & if he gets out, he's gonna raise his strikerate - but the amount of skill being shown there is debatable; imho

1.49 is exactly where I heard his nerves wobble & that's because he has no confidence in what hes doing.

Btw, I didn't vote so you'd like to know the other 2 - me too Haha.

[rik]

largely dependant on odds your taking or if trading percentage gain your going for?
dont make sense to me that poll

[jamesg46]

largely dependant on odds your taking or if trading percentage gain your going for?
dont make sense to me that poll

The qty of winning vs losing trades, not r2r.