A list of my edges:

[wearthefoxhat]

Straight to the point, would this be deemed to be an edge?


Edge2.jpg

Never been tested and straight out of the BF Promo files 2009 to 2020

£25 stakes

Can't see why not...

[ShaunWhite]

-Data. I wouldn't have known what to capture.

Simple answer is everything you can. You can never tell what's going to be important and the best data of all is what the fewest people have.

[ShaunWhite]

Straight to the point, would this be deemed to be an edge

Could you actually execute it or does it rely on hitting top/bottom prices? Because sat at the screen you only know what those were when the race starts and you've missed them or guessed wrong. How do you hit a high or a low? You can't. It's easy to hindsight and another common one is order of favoritism, sure backing the bsp 2nd fav 5mins out looks great but what a shame you can't know what the bsp 2nd fav will be 5mins out. We've all done it, you sort by something like those that have moved the most in the final 2mins and it's win win win, again, shame you don't know which those will be 2mins out when you have to place your opening bet.

[Atho55]

Rik, would be interested in a bit more detail if possible.

Shaun, I mention BF Promo data so does not involve anything complicated.

I`ve only just used NigelK`s fantastic tool to download and sort so not scratched the surface yet but looks easy to set up and sort into some kind of shape to scrutinise either Rank or individual Odds. Blind backing Rank 1 as an example

Rank1.jpg

Win / Loss Data

Win Loss Data.jpg

Where the Win / Losses occur and size of both...

Win Loss Data a.jpg

[ShaunWhite]

Shaun, I mention BF Promo data so does not involve anything complicated.

I was just saying that you can't use the highs and lows in the Betfair promo data because you only know them retrospectively. With no info to go on about your strategy and the promo data only having high, low and bsp it seemed like a reasonable pitfall to highlight.

[ShaunWhite]

I don't use that sheet. Is it updated to use 2% comm from mid 2019 or is it still using 5%?

[rik]

Rik, would be interested in a bit more detail if possible.

Shaun, I mention BF Promo data so does not involve anything complicated.

I`ve only just used NigelK`s fantastic tool to download and sort so not scratched the surface yet but looks easy to set up and sort into some kind of shape to scrutinise either Rank or individual Odds. Blind backing Rank 1 as an example

Win Loss Data a.jpg

Sorry it seemed like a rhetorical question, it looks very stable but you didnt give any information like amount of markets, win rate, comission rate, bet placement time, if turnover is low your own stake could influence the price its hard to give a good answer just from a graph going up

Was NigelK selling this spreadsheet or is it still available on the forum?

[Anbell]

Was NigelK selling this spreadsheet or is it still available on the forum?

Here you go
viewtopic.php?t=14395

[wearthefoxhat]

There are aspects of my edge that would only be relinquished from my cold, dead hands, such was the effort and time that went into acquiring them.

But others are more general, and more readily available. Some will suggest that as a consequence they are worthless, but I disagree. A misconception of 'edge' is that it is one thing - usually how and why one enters and exits a market - but this is, as I say, a misconception. My edge i.e. my ability to consistently take profit from the market, is built on so many different things that I thought it would be worthwhile sharing some of these.

You'll notice a pattern with mine - most of them are a function of putting myself into the best mental and physical state from which to trade. Others will disagree, but I see trading as being 90% mindset and 10% technical. I know this because I bought my edge/system from another trader. It works, but it only makes up a small proportion of what allows me to profit from that edge. If you aren't consistently profitable then your input on the ratio of mindset to technical isn't really important; this isn't a Jose "never played but can still manage" Mourinho scenario - you have to have been there and done it to understand what the ratio is.

Meditation - trading is a mental game. If you aren't meditating in order to reduce noise and improve clarity, then you're missing out on enhancing your ability to control your response. This applies to all aspects of life.

Journalling - a trade journal is essential in recording the state that you are trading from. Far more useful than the omnipresent excel sheet that tracks entries and exits, the trading journal allows you to reflect on the circumstances and preparation that created your results.

Video recordings - it makes me laugh when manual traders think they can improve on trading without having a recording of what they've done. The adrenaline and various other chemicals that flow through your body when money is in the market make it impossible to accurately remember how and why you did what you did in a market. This is where video recording comes in.

Breathing exercises - making rash, thoughless decisions in the market is incredibly common. Breathing exercises are a useful tool in managing the state that creates these decisions.

I have written quite a few more but stopped short of posting as I'm interested in what others are willing to share.

All relevant for sure.

The "emotional edge" is something that is a constant and must be worked on each hour/day. If taken for granted, it has a habit of biting you in the arse. Think you have it licked?... Good luck with that.

Keeping the ego in check is the big one. It doesn't matter what you know or think you know, if the sentiment is different, then rethink/plan again.

A recent example of this was "Will Cheltenham 2020 go ahead?" The right thing to do was abandon/postpone the festival. It was obvious really, even more so in hindsight...but the sentiment of the authorities/decision makers was different. The PM had attended a rugby event a few days earlier, herd mentality was the watchword, entertain the masses, keep the economy moving, were the sentiments at the time. Easy trade/Easy money/Free money.

I've always said automation is the way forward, I would say semi-automation would give more of an edge. The original algo will perform based on the strict rules set, if it doesn't have an element of A.I. incorporated to anticipate/intercept the sentiment, it could fall down quickly. So, monitoring/reviewing/tweaking is the order of the day.

This is already happening in HFT. The trading algo is monitored, not by trader, but by computer science software engineer. Heck, there's even a 20 page technical whitepaper on "Surveillance Techniques To Effectively Monitor Algo and High Frequency Trading." 2014

https://kx.com/media/2017/11/Surveillan ... rading.pdf

That's my 2 cents worth...

[Kai]

Keeping the ego in check is the big one. It doesn't matter what you know or think you know, if the sentiment is different, then rethink/plan again.

+1

Working on your own psychology should be done in parallel with working on your edges, for me that goes without saying. But like I mentioned a few times by now, the ultimate edge for me is being able to develop/find an edge in the first place, knowing the exact process needed to get there and understanding the market and the psychology behind it well enough to provide an endless supply of edges if needed (see Euler). This process can vary from person to person but it's important to find a recipe that works for you. The more times you go through more or less the same process, the better you get at it.

I've gone to great detail to explain what works for me, to repeat in short it's a combination of research (and networking which is people, like Simon mentioned) to extract the important bits what I can from the work of others, before getting balls deep into it myself with proper stake sizes so that it hurts when I make mistakes and that I'm rewarded for doing well, but with a huge emphasis on video analysis that I like to use to scan and highlight the opportunities and strategies but also to constantly cut and create clips of both good and bad trades etc, I also cut a large amount of important clips in the research phase, re-recording myself when self analyzing etc.

[ShaunWhite]

Thanks for the link Mr Fox, very interesting, there's one or two things in there I don't do.

Reading this thread I feel slightly sorry for the manual traders, breathing exercises, meditaion, reviewing videos and then locked down at your desk for 40hrs a week while the sun is shining outside, all while maintaining peak physical fitness. Sounds like more effort than the people playing the sports you're watching are making! It sounds horrendous.

[Kai]

Reading this thread I feel slightly sorry for the manual traders, breathing exercises, meditaion, reviewing videos and then locked down at your desk for 40hrs a week while the sun is shining outside, all while maintaining peak physical fitness. Sounds like more effort than the people playing the sports you're watching are making! It sounds horrendous.

It's the recipe that worked for OP so can't really be judged too much, nor patronized. Bear in mind that he purchased his edge too, so for a lot of people it gets even more difficult when developing their own. But as difficult as the game is, it can also be very addicting and enjoyable too, if you fancy a real challenge. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I see no bigger challenge than learning to manually trade and trade well, because you're effectively challenging your own self and some of the hard-wiring in your brain

[nivi7]

For a moment I thought (and maybe hoped?) this was a trolling thread, but then I remembered a similar thread from OP.

at some point in your miserable life you should stop disrespecting people on line

[ShaunWhite]

Reading this thread I feel slightly sorry for the manual traders, breathing exercises, meditaion, reviewing videos and then locked down at your desk for 40hrs a week while the sun is shining outside, all while maintaining peak physical fitness. Sounds like more effort than the people playing the sports you're watching are making! It sounds horrendous.

It's the recipe that worked for OP so can't really be judged too much, nor patronized.

I wasn't being patronising, I was being lighthearted.

Trading is difficult, but 'no bigger challenge' might be stretching it a bit.

[ShaunWhite]

For a moment I thought (and maybe hoped?) this was a trolling thread, but then I remembered a similar thread from OP.

at some point in your miserable life you should stop disrespecting people on line

Are you familiar with the concept of irony?