After reading that explanation I hopped over to Wiki to peruse the entry for
Hindsight Bias
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias
Nevertheless I am glad I saw that screenshot and am willing to believe its legit.
can you really make money?
reads like he knows what hes doing, probably true, must have bet more than 30k odds 7.4 at halftime to get to 170k profit and reduce risk during the match "as goals looked a bit more likely, need some luck as well people willing to lay not having to move price too much, even premier league liquidity not that great on over under 0,5
might have been better going under 2,5 as bit higher liquidity, more even odds mean less variance, easier to adjust positions after 1 or 2 goals, say you would still think under is value after 1 goal you wouldnt need to match a large amount again, maybe its only at stalemate 0-0 he thought under, but generally thats reflected in the odds anyway, implied chance change is higher after the first than the second and third goal
might have been better going under 2,5 as bit higher liquidity, more even odds mean less variance, easier to adjust positions after 1 or 2 goals, say you would still think under is value after 1 goal you wouldnt need to match a large amount again, maybe its only at stalemate 0-0 he thought under, but generally thats reflected in the odds anyway, implied chance change is higher after the first than the second and third goal
He definitely knows what he is doing.rik wrote: ↑Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:42 amreads like he knows what hes doing, probably true, must have bet more than 30k odds 7.4 at halftime to get to 170k profit and reduce risk during the match "as goals looked a bit more likely, need some luck as well people willing to lay not having to move price too much, even premier league liquidity not that great on over under 0,5
might have been better going under 2,5 as bit higher liquidity, more even odds mean less variance, easier to adjust positions after 1 or 2 goals, say you would still think under is value after 1 goal you wouldnt need to match a large amount again, maybe its only at stalemate 0-0 he thought under, but generally thats reflected in the odds anyway, implied chance change is higher after the first than the second and third goal
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Skepticism over credulity then? 
The first one makes us feel much better about ourselves compared to the latter one, so it's an easy choice to make most of the time! 
Still, I'm often surprised by the amount of skepticism in general : https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... auloRebelo
Not my place to promote Paulo and I get that not everyone is familiar with his work, but there aren't any Portuguese traders on here so who cares. He's a trader first and foremost, meaning he doesn't just lump a big sum on the market and hope for the best, that's far too one-dimensional, in the video it's clear that there are 25 pages worth of bets on the under 0.5 market and I think that says it all. He built the position by actively trading the market, as you can imagine in a match like this there was obviously enough volatility to do that and the market was certainly big enough.
The surprising bit for me actually is why he doesn't do that more often
The first one makes us feel much better about ourselves compared to the latter one, so it's an easy choice to make most of the time! Still, I'm often surprised by the amount of skepticism in general : https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... auloRebelo
Not my place to promote Paulo and I get that not everyone is familiar with his work, but there aren't any Portuguese traders on here so who cares. He's a trader first and foremost, meaning he doesn't just lump a big sum on the market and hope for the best, that's far too one-dimensional, in the video it's clear that there are 25 pages worth of bets on the under 0.5 market and I think that says it all. He built the position by actively trading the market, as you can imagine in a match like this there was obviously enough volatility to do that and the market was certainly big enough.
The surprising bit for me actually is why he doesn't do that more often
There are far more people who pretend to make a living than there are actually do, so it's no wonder people are sceptical.
I met Paulo when I did some work for Betfair in Spain. My understanding from the country manager is that they picked Paulo to represent them in Portugal as somebody to front the concept. We had quite a lot of correspondence so I'm familiar with his style of trading, but it's obviously out of place for me to discuss specifics publically.
As we never produced a native .pt version of Bet Angel, I've sort of lost touch with Paulo in recent years. But he was definitely legit back then, but exactly what he is up to know, I don't know.
I met Paulo when I did some work for Betfair in Spain. My understanding from the country manager is that they picked Paulo to represent them in Portugal as somebody to front the concept. We had quite a lot of correspondence so I'm familiar with his style of trading, but it's obviously out of place for me to discuss specifics publically.
As we never produced a native .pt version of Bet Angel, I've sort of lost touch with Paulo in recent years. But he was definitely legit back then, but exactly what he is up to know, I don't know.
Fair point, but still, a bit of common sense should eventually work out through all that fake noise, but obviously those from the outside looking in aren't able to tell the difference. Their PT/BR communities have their fair share of scammers as well, with some operating on a large scale and their stuff looks very clean at first glance with corporate style videos, but it's all ridiculously fake.
He seems to be doing very well commercially and has expanded into the Brazil market in recent years, their trading scene has bloomed over the last few years, I think he even got into the software vendor business.
OP couldn't have asked that question in a better place, don't think he could get an honest enough answer elsewhere with the other communities pushing their own agendas and narratives. So, well done OP
yes some really good responses tbh.
it seems that if you do make a decent amount out of trading , then you pays your PC, and thats about it.
i just think, and i am very cynical i know, that somewhere alond the road you would still be limited. Just because , to stay no1 or compete for no1, then the exchanges would need to self support and put into thier own liquidity ( wouldnt they ?? ), and dont want heavy punters to win large amounts. (say over 250 k lifetime)
if they do input into thier own liquidity now then maybe people do have experiances of being limited on the exchanges ? would be interesting to know
however just a hypothetical of what could happen in the future ?, and i suppose if you can afford to lose 40+% of your profits, then they are more than hapen to continue with that ?
As an example. matchbook have some T/C that say they want 60% of your profits if your any good. wow !!!
it seems that if you do make a decent amount out of trading , then you pays your PC, and thats about it.
i just think, and i am very cynical i know, that somewhere alond the road you would still be limited. Just because , to stay no1 or compete for no1, then the exchanges would need to self support and put into thier own liquidity ( wouldnt they ?? ), and dont want heavy punters to win large amounts. (say over 250 k lifetime)
if they do input into thier own liquidity now then maybe people do have experiances of being limited on the exchanges ? would be interesting to know
however just a hypothetical of what could happen in the future ?, and i suppose if you can afford to lose 40+% of your profits, then they are more than hapen to continue with that ?
As an example. matchbook have some T/C that say they want 60% of your profits if your any good. wow !!!
It depends on your approach. You can trade 100.000 markets and on average win 1 (totaling to 100.000 a year), or you could trade 100 markets and on average win 1.000.. The latter however will be difficult with relatively smaller stakes. It is al about focussing on the long run and finding your edge, and the average profit will eventually make quite a significant impact if you find enough markets to apply your strategy to. Just find the markets in which you want to try and develop your edge.
Personally I am not aware of Betfair putting in own money to create liquidity, so if there is no money in the market there simply is no room for big trading. Find the markets with a lot of liquidity and that will help you a lot already. And then slowly increase stakes when being profitable and see to what amount the market is able to support your strategy.
Personally I am not aware of Betfair putting in own money to create liquidity, so if there is no money in the market there simply is no room for big trading. Find the markets with a lot of liquidity and that will help you a lot already. And then slowly increase stakes when being profitable and see to what amount the market is able to support your strategy.
Well, most decent traders should hit 250k lifetime eventually if they've been trading for years, like many have done, and you've got people here like Euler and megarain that were active on the exchange since day 1 so their lifetime profit goes past a few million at least, and still nobody got limited.stever78 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:28 ami just think, and i am very cynical i know, that somewhere alond the road you would still be limited. Just because , to stay no1 or compete for no1, then the exchanges would need to self support and put into thier own liquidity ( wouldnt they ?? ), and dont want heavy punters to win large amounts. (say over 250 k lifetime)
And as to whether Betfair seed their own markets and to what extent, I guess that's for you to find out for yourself, but don't think any of it matters at the end of the day. Markets are flush with cash, opportunities are endless and winners are more than welcome, not much more you could possibly want, other than perhaps a more stable platform and slightly lower PC rates
If you think you've got the grit for it, you are free to give it a shot, if you are a sensible person there is not much to lose really and everything to gain.
It's not really a good idea to overthink how much money you can make, potentially make or how much the big traders make. Just focus on learning the trade, seeing what you can do and improving on that. I spent a lot of time trying to explain that to Luca.
Not to mention Luke
It is difficult enough to make 1 quid, that takes some doing and it's a whole process!
Luca was the one that wanted to bet hard - €10K to be precise, and was overly concerned with how much others were making. Luke was willing to work hard asking questions and getting information but didn't seem to have the energy to do anything with it, and it just went through one ear and out the other.
€10K is peanuts for a little champion like LucaDerek27 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:41 pmLuca was the one that wanted to bet hard - €10K to be precise, and was overly concerned with how much others were making. Luke was willing to work hard asking questions and getting information but didn't seem to have the energy to do anything with it, and it just went through one ear and out the other.
The real question here is which one do you miss most, Luca or Luke?
Or is it Shaun already?!Luca had me in absolute stitches sometimes. So did Luke but he was a bit time-consuming.Kai wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:47 pm€10K is peanuts for a little champion like LucaDerek27 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:41 pmLuca was the one that wanted to bet hard - €10K to be precise, and was overly concerned with how much others were making. Luke was willing to work hard asking questions and getting information but didn't seem to have the energy to do anything with it, and it just went through one ear and out the other.
The real question here is which one do you miss most, Luca or Luke?