Declining Liquidity

[ANGELS15]

There also appears to be a decline in interest among the younger generation in sports betting anyway. That's a shame as we need more people to open accounts to provide more liquidity.

Do you have any evidence to back this up, beyond anecdote?

Just as easy to craft the narrative that as the absurdity of 9-5 creeps home, and the ability to buy a home becomes further and further out of reach, the cash out generation - my generation - looking for the big play to get out of this ridiculous system see sports betting - 6 figures! three hours a day! - as an obvious route, like other forms of trading, to freedom.

I haven't got any stats on this but I'm going on my own personal observations, more so in the last 15 years. There was a time when many people liked a bet on a regular basis. Up until the early 2000s when you went into a bookies it used to be fairly busy with a lot of people in there. Things changed around 2007 when the smoking ban came in. Bookies and Bingo halls saw a drop in the no of customers.

Nowadays when I go to bookies which I do on a regular basis not really to bet but to use their pictures and see the betting shows, there are only a tiny fraction of the no of people that used to frequent there. Often there's perhaps just a couple of people playing fruit machines and maybe one or two 'old boys' watching racing. Many times I've been in a bookies and it's just been me watching the shows and one other punter playing fruit machines.

As far as bookies are concerned, fruit machines, numbers games and virtual have racing have taken away a lot of the turnover from sports betting.

Also there seems to be a cultural shift. Perhaps the younger generation may be more online rather than in the shops. Even racecourses have noticed a decline in attendances in recent years. That's not to say people don't go racing as they clearly do, just not as much as in the past.

I remember around a year before the pandemic I got chatting to a young guy in a bookies and he hadn't been having much luck with his bets. I tried to explain about exchanges and their benefits but he wasn't interested.

We were discussing an upcoming race and I told him I liked one of the outsiders. It was around 12/1 but I told him I got 20s on the exchange. Anyway it won, can't remember if he also backed it. I then tried to explain again about value on the exchanges but again he wasn't interested. I could see though that he clearly had online accounts as he was using his phone to bet.

I know as you said this is perhaps more anecdotal. However I would be very happy indeed if my oberservations were proved wrong.

[wearthefoxhat]

There also appears to be a decline in interest among the younger generation in sports betting anyway. That's a shame as we need more people to open accounts to provide more liquidity.

Do you have any evidence to back this up, beyond anecdote?

Just as easy to craft the narrative that as the absurdity of 9-5 creeps home, and the ability to buy a home becomes further and further out of reach, the cash out generation - my generation - looking for the big play to get out of this ridiculous system see sports betting - 6 figures! three hours a day! - as an obvious route, like other forms of trading, to freedom.

I haven't got any stats on this but I'm going on my own personal observations, more so in the last 15 years. There was a time when many people liked a bet on a regular basis. Up until the early 2000s when you went into a bookies it used to be fairly busy with a lot of people in there. Things changed around 2007 when the smoking ban came in. Bookies and Bingo halls saw a drop in the no of customers.

Nowadays when I go to bookies which I do on a regular basis not really to bet but to use their pictures and see the betting shows, there are only a tiny fraction of the no of people that used to frequent there. Often there's perhaps just a couple of people playing fruit machines and maybe one or two 'old boys' watching racing. Many times I've been in a bookies and it's just been me watching the shows and one other punter playing fruit machines.

As far as bookies are concerned, fruit machines, numbers games and virtual have racing have taken away a lot of the turnover from sports betting.

Also there seems to be a cultural shift. Perhaps the younger generation may be more online rather than in the shops. Even racecourses have noticed a decline in attendances in recent years. That's not to say people don't go racing as they clearly do, just not as much as in the past.

I remember around a year before the pandemic I got chatting to a young guy in a bookies and he hadn't been having much luck with his bets. I tried to explain about exchanges and their benefits but he wasn't interested.

We were discussing an upcoming race and I told him I liked one of the outsiders. It was around 12/1 but I told him I got 20s on the exchange. Anyway it won, can't remember if he also backed it. I then tried to explain again about value on the exchanges but again he wasn't interested. I could see though that he clearly had online accounts as he was using his phone to bet.

I know as you said this is perhaps more anecdotal. However I would be very happy indeed if my oberservations were proved wrong.

I think the younger gen go online for Poker and Footy bets. Bet365 and their advertising have enticed them, as was it's objective, the poker sites have quick whizz bang/zoom tournaments that can quickly win, or get them qualified for bigger live events. They also like crypto.

The older gen, those that remember extel commentaries, still like to visit the betting shop, maybe for nostalgia. The average bet per slip needs to be around £10 for shops to stay open, the old boys still like their 10p yankees..(£1.10 total). Another reason there will be less betting shops in the next 3-5 years. (They had a good run with the FOBT's)

The example of the kid copping a deafen to Betfair is about right. It would mean actually listening and understanding (asking a question), and then doing some homework. This of course isn't required in a betting shop as it's a quick fix and feeds the monkey brain.

or...am I being cynical?

[ANGELS15]

Do you have any evidence to back this up, beyond anecdote?

Just as easy to craft the narrative that as the absurdity of 9-5 creeps home, and the ability to buy a home becomes further and further out of reach, the cash out generation - my generation - looking for the big play to get out of this ridiculous system see sports betting - 6 figures! three hours a day! - as an obvious route, like other forms of trading, to freedom.

I haven't got any stats on this but I'm going on my own personal observations, more so in the last 15 years. There was a time when many people liked a bet on a regular basis. Up until the early 2000s when you went into a bookies it used to be fairly busy with a lot of people in there. Things changed around 2007 when the smoking ban came in. Bookies and Bingo halls saw a drop in the no of customers.

Nowadays when I go to bookies which I do on a regular basis not really to bet but to use their pictures and see the betting shows, there are only a tiny fraction of the no of people that used to frequent there. Often there's perhaps just a couple of people playing fruit machines and maybe one or two 'old boys' watching racing. Many times I've been in a bookies and it's just been me watching the shows and one other punter playing fruit machines.

As far as bookies are concerned, fruit machines, numbers games and virtual have racing have taken away a lot of the turnover from sports betting.

Also there seems to be a cultural shift. Perhaps the younger generation may be more online rather than in the shops. Even racecourses have noticed a decline in attendances in recent years. That's not to say people don't go racing as they clearly do, just not as much as in the past.

I remember around a year before the pandemic I got chatting to a young guy in a bookies and he hadn't been having much luck with his bets. I tried to explain about exchanges and their benefits but he wasn't interested.

We were discussing an upcoming race and I told him I liked one of the outsiders. It was around 12/1 but I told him I got 20s on the exchange. Anyway it won, can't remember if he also backed it. I then tried to explain again about value on the exchanges but again he wasn't interested. I could see though that he clearly had online accounts as he was using his phone to bet.

I know as you said this is perhaps more anecdotal. However I would be very happy indeed if my oberservations were proved wrong.

I think the younger gen go online for Poker and Footy bets. Bet365 and their advertising have enticed them, as was it's objective, the poker sites have quick whizz bang/zoom tournaments that can quickly win, or get them qualified for bigger live events. They also like crypto.

The older gen, those that remember extel commentaries, still like to visit the betting shop, maybe for nostalgia. The average bet per slip needs to be around £10 for shops to stay open, the old boys still like their 10p yankees..(£1.10 total). Another reason there will be less betting shops in the next 3-5 years. (They had a good run with the FOBT's)

The example of the kid copping a deafen to Betfair is about right. It would mean actually listening and understanding (asking a question), and then doing some homework. This of course isn't required in a betting shop as it's a quick fix and feeds the monkey brain.

or...am I being cynical?

No you're quite right.

I recall another story I told on another thread where I was recounting how I'd backed a big priced runner. A woman punter stood near me and noticed I looked pleased and asked if I'd backed it and how did I pick it. I told her there was no cleverness involved I'd merely backed it in running on the exchange as it very quickly took up a prominent position and seemed to be going well. She shook her head in disapproval and called me a cheat. I patiently tried to explain to her that with exchanges you have in running betting 'look there's another race about to start I fancy that one lining up at the front'. She still wouldn't have it and wouldn't let me explain muttering it was 'cheating'. I gathered she was perfectly happy to be ripped off by bookies.

[tar1234]

This is bleak reading for newbies like me

Would the experienced guys on here say this trend is also occurring with Football, Tennis etc? When I worked in a bookies (around 10 years ago now) Football was just starting overtake Horse Racing in terms of turnover and it looks as if that has continued. I can definitely sense a generational difference in terms of attitudes towards Horse Racing and as a few others have suggested some people will always just prefer a 'simple bet' which is even easier now with smart phones.

It's a shame if this continues because I find pre race trading to be fascinating.

[jamesg46]

This is bleak reading for newbies like me

Would the experienced guys on here say this trend is also occurring with Football, Tennis etc? When I worked in a bookies (around 10 years ago now) Football was just starting overtake Horse Racing in terms of turnover and it looks as if that has continued. I can definitely sense a generational difference in terms of attitudes towards Horse Racing and as a few others have suggested some people will always just prefer a 'simple bet' which is even easier now with smart phones.

It's a shame if this continues because I find pre race trading to be fascinating.

Don't worry about it, infact it's probably better to take advantage of it.

Small traders could end up getting more bang for their buck.

[Big Bad Barney]

My Dad liked the horses (and owns a few). He was born in the early 50's. I believe when he was a teen and young adult his weekend hobby was to listen them on radio and analyse the form in the paper and stuff. I suppose it's the thing that was available to analytical people back then...
I was born in the late 70's and when I was a teenager, I had no interest in horses. My weekend hobby was analysing the prices at the computer markets. Woaaahh, that cyrix 585 is $5 bucks cheaper at game dudes computers than dude gamers computers...hours of excitement...

Not a single one of my peers was into horses.
My children (Born in 2000's) think the Melbourne cup is cruel (the only horse races they see)

Of the young guys in their 20's who gamble at my workplace, it's mostly sports betting, football and boxing, 100% of them aren't all too bright...explaining a casino's house edge doesn't compute and it's not about making money for them, it's about enhancing their participation/skin in the game. (This is a different discussion to liquidity though and I doubt that psychology has or will change any time soon, that mentality has obviously worked very well on an evolutionary basis for creating offspring .... being that 99% of the population are that way inclined...)

I don't know if any of that means anything. For mine, horses are in decline, sports betting is increasing.

[Euler]

The big issue I have, is that I have no chance of hitting the higher numbers I have in prior years. I've always been on the edge of what is possible,

Is there any particular reason you've remained a one-man-band rather than going down a similar route to Ranogajec, Bloom etc or some other gambling related business?

Been on a short break, so had to dig back to find this.

A chance meeting in Switzerland a few years back, led me to Star Lizards door and I had quite a good look at their business. I've interacted with them quite a lot over the years for one reason or another.

There are actually quite a few similar companies now out there, but they have all carved out their niche in different areas. So I think the romantic public vision of a group of sharp punters making money from finding an edge is a bit outdated. As Matthew Benham has shown they all have fingers in many pies and multiple revenue sources and markets they can serve. So I think that's a very different business.

I've been offered the chance to join various syndicates, but never seen the value. Exchanges present the opportunity to do pretty serious volume on an individual basis and there isn't really a need to raise capital. So I guess the only advantage could be information sharing or perhaps access to other markets.

But it's never appealed to me and I've never felt the need to set up anything more substantive than I have at the moment. I guess I could invest heavily to mimic these sort of things. Managing a whole new business(es) is something I could probably do, but I'm quite happy where I am.

[ShaunWhite]

but never seen the value.

Agreed, be financially comfortable aggravation-free or be slightly more comfortable with all the headaches. Easy choice. Just curuous though, thx for the reply.

[MobiusGrey]

Coincidentally I've just watched a video on YT that Caan has posted about Matthew Benham, I had no idea that's how Matchbook came into existence. Caan mentioned that Benham created Matchbook in order for him to match huge sums that he couldn't elsewhere without moving the market, I guess he was a single seed in his own exchange?

[ANGELS15]

Coincidentally I've just watched a video on YT that Caan has posted about Matthew Benham, I had no idea that's how Matchbook came into existence. Caan mentioned that Benham created Matchbook in order for him to match huge sums that he couldn't elsewhere without moving the market, I guess he was a single seed in his own exchange?

That's an interesting story. I recall not long after Betfair had been created and Betdaq had come along, the story was Betdaq was owned/created by the financier who owned London City Airport at the time. The story was that it was originally created so that two extremely wealthy tycoons could bet against one another.

[Euler]

Coincidentally I've just watched a video on YT that Caan has posted about Matthew Benham, I had no idea that's how Matchbook came into existence. Caan mentioned that Benham created Matchbook in order for him to match huge sums that he couldn't elsewhere without moving the market, I guess he was a single seed in his own exchange?

Always thought that was common knowledge. No better way to get matched at larger amounts, until you take a bit too far.....

https://www.casino.org/news/matchbook-g ... d-by-ukgc/

[ANGELS15]

I've noticed in the past on American racing markets that often a few minutes before the official off time you may have at least £1k/£2k plus traded. At any rate in 4 figures.

Lately (in the last 4 days) I've noticed that on the few markets I've looked at (Monmouth was one) I've seen only about £200 matched in the market with a couple of minutes to go to the official off! Even as the horses are loading there's still sometimes less than £5k traded.

I think it would be fair to say on some of these US markets you get more traded on a an average UK dog race. I occasionally dutch in US racing markets. Lately that's become difficult as often you can't get proper odds as there's so little money in the markets.

I was curious if anyone else had noticed this.

[megarain]

Yes, been another gradual decline.

https://www.casino.org/news/betfair-bet ... ew-jersey/

Didnt help etc. Just revenue now from non-USA players.

[ANGELS15]

Yes, been another gradual decline.

https://www.casino.org/news/betfair-bet ... ew-jersey/

Didnt help etc. Just revenue now from non-USA players.

Thanks for the input. Very surprising that the exchange never really took off where they tried to introduce it. I thought US punters would have fallen over themselves to take this opportunity.

[Euler]

Thanks for the input. Very surprising that the exchange never really took off where they tried to introduce it. I thought US punters would have fallen over themselves to take this opportunity.

I did a number of trips to the US including a few visits to Betfair's head office. But most of the time I spent evangelising to punters and speaking to various parties about exchanges.

There was a huge appetite for betting exchanges in the US amongst the public, but the system railed against them. Trying to get them legislated and approved by varying groups was really hard and ultimately the will and momentum weren't there at Betfair.

There was pretty big business on US sports for some time as it was legal in Canada. So anybody who wanted to bet could just set up over the border. But it all started to go wrong when Paddy Power took over. They had existing business in Canada so closed the exchange.

When the Stars group merger took place it was only a matter of time before the NJ exchange went.

The appetite is still there!