How much would you give away on here?

[Kai]

Well you don't have to speculate if you find that game too difficult or annoying, you can try market making or active scalping or value betting etc, just find the markets or periods that suit that approach. Learning how to market make alone can open up most markets, you'll sooner run out of bank than opportunities regardless of how much you deposit.

Bottom line is, if you're not profitable then you're missing some key fundamentals or there is something fundamentally wrong with your execution, don't see what else can stop you from making a profit. You can't hide from the market, it's a pointless endeavor, the market is like Liam Neeson in Taken, it will find you and it will kill you. You may be able to hide a gambling problem from your wife but I'm pretty sure the market will notice.

Regarding benefits from sharing and oversharing, from a manual perspective the more I shared the more I got back because you inevitably run into good and top traders, providing you're on the right path (lol). Those learning opportunities both opened my eyes and opened new opportunities to dabble profitably in various markets that I probably wouldn't delve into myself, since you can somewhat absorb their trading experience and be stronger for it. Overall it certainly helped me to trade less and more efficiently so I can pick my battles better, which is usually around 2 hours on average most days.

Obviously much easier to share if you fully understand what your mindset/skillset entails and if it's realistically out of reach for most people, those that create video content and so on are WELL aware of all the hurdles you have to jump over to get close, and those that can utilize things definitely deserve to do so since they've already put in the effort in building that whole mindset skillset package. If you don't respect the auto participants then you can share everything I guess, but your edge could have auto potential that you're not yet aware off so you could be weakening or destroying it longer term.

Actually, what I often like to do is not really that different from what the big automated market making sums on the market do, they just do it more efficiently and on a bigger scale, but the important thing is that I'm not overthinking it and trying to be too clever about it, and I'm certainly not doing anything new or revolutionary, the intelligence trap that clever people fall into is very possible and they can easily end up doing stupid things.

If you take Betdaq for example, last time I looked at the markets they were practically dead, zero market noise and activity and just blindly following Betfair. So luckily on Betfair you have a wide range of viable approaches, while on Betdaq probably not so much, I can see how it could be good for value betting and I'm sure I could make a living off Betdaq by purely speculating but why bother with that since Betfair is the superior exchange.

[decomez6]

Edit please apologies.

[decomez6]

It also depends on the recepient. How ready are they to receive the shared info.
Some people do not consider the wrapping as part of a gift , I do ….

Now that we are all
In the spirit of sharing and caring , I will be grateful to anyone with a link to a website paid / unpaid
on expected average total volume to be matched per horse race ; uk ,aus.irl
Meaning; apart from
The paid Betfair data and the freely available horse racing data , is there a data base with this info .

Accept this gift in advance

A58F6240-3DA0-4EA8-8955-C1FF95341A7A.jpeg

[ShaunWhite]

Tot vol expected is tricky decom. It's primarily a function of race class (not in the Betfair data) and price profile. If you've got a shorty it obv takes a lot more than a long fav, so some sort of concern from vol traded to liability traded is required. As usual the answer is to analyse a large number of markets and try to model it. Can't imagine there's a data source that says to expect X or Y.

[Euler]

The big thing I've learnt from sharing information is that people tend to approach an idea with an internal view already and then try and construct a narrative around it and look for evidence of that. So I've come to realise that even if you share really high-quality information, people often won't understand the significance of what you have said.

To compress that into a more readable form, people look for evidence to support their own beliefs. People have made up their minds before they even look objectively at something.

You can tell somebody something that works, but only they can make it work. If they are hell-bent on proving that it won't work they will ignore facts and trying to dig around for reasons why it shouldn't work. The earth is round, but you can't see it, therefore it's flat.

I've wasted so much time in my career trying to convince people that won't be convinced, that I'm come to realise that as the reality of the market and actually it's an important part of the market. That's the 'other side' of the market.

In interviews, I've used the analogy of telling people not to jump off a cliff because they can't fly. At which point they jump to prove you wrong!

I've sort of given up trying to convince people of what is possible. If you want to find it, you can. But if you don't want to find it, you can also find that too! I'm really only interested now in helping people who what to progress rather than argue whether it's possible or not, that ship sailed a long time ago.

[jimibt]

... The earth is round, but you can't see it, therefore it's flat.

... that ship sailed a long time ago.

just had to pick those two juxtas

[jimibt]

... The earth is round, but you can't see it, therefore it's flat.

... that ship sailed a long time ago.

lol - love the juxta of those 2 seperate points

[Realrocknrolla]

... The earth is round, but you can't see it, therefore it's flat.

... that ship sailed a long time ago.

lol - love the juxta of those 2 seperate points

on-the-truman-show.jpg

Yes, I immediately thought of this movie some how!!

[decomez6]

Tot vol expected is tricky decom. It's primarily a function of race class (not in the Betfair data) and price profile. If you've got a shorty it obv takes a lot more than a long fav, so some sort of concern from vol traded to liability traded is required. As usual the answer is to analyse a large number of markets and try to model it. Can't imagine there's a data source that says to expect X or Y.

Thanks Shaun.
A problem shared is a problem halved .

[decomez6]

people tend to approach an idea with an internal view already and then try and construct a narrative around it and look for evidence of that. So I've come to realise that even if you share really high-quality information, people often won't understand the significance of what you have said.

Confirmation bias and blind scepticism is a sign of limited knowledge.
Trading is NOT very black and white. This seems to be the main reason for fear of the unknown and some people will never accept the grey area as part of the solution.
The mindset of a successful trader is said to be One of a rare breed , with an IQ above average.
Some people are quick learners and others are late bloomers .
Sceptics and the daredevils are always good for business , especially when they jump off the cliff even after you warn them…. Your edge is secured.

[Euler]

Exactly. I eventually learnt to not argue with them, especially as it made no difference.

[goat68]

The big thing I've learnt from sharing information is that people tend to approach an idea with an internal view already and then try and construct a narrative around it and look for evidence of that. So I've come to realise that even if you share really high-quality information, people often won't understand the significance of what you have said.

To compress that into a more readable form, people look for evidence to support their own beliefs. People have made up their minds before they even look objectively at something.

You can tell somebody something that works, but only they can make it work. If they are hell-bent on proving that it won't work they will ignore facts and trying to dig around for reasons why it shouldn't work. The earth is round, but you can't see it, therefore it's flat.

I've wasted so much time in my career trying to convince people that won't be convinced, that I'm come to realise that as the reality of the market and actually it's an important part of the market. That's the 'other side' of the market.

In interviews, I've used the analogy of telling people not to jump off a cliff because they can't fly. At which point they jump to prove you wrong!

I've sort of given up trying to convince people of what is possible. If you want to find it, you can. But if you don't want to find it, you can also find that too! I'm really only interested now in helping people who what to progress rather than argue whether it's possible or not, that ship sailed a long time ago.

Totally agree, lots of people have given me bits of information, but I look at it from my base through my tinted glasses... I see this in my day job as well...
I'm only now starting to develop my own view on this game.

[alexmr2]

In my opinion trading ability is pretty non-transferable even through videos and calls never mind text, it would be like reading a book on how to play tennis better and then not actually being any better in reality.

That being said I think most people still aren't happy to risk sharing their full setups and strategies on public pages, for a fair enough reason in such a competitive game.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are a couple of secrets that a top trader could pass onto another to give them an edge though, like with Peter teaching his daughter. Sometimes I think of ideas and the best traders I know aren't able to answer them, I'd love to discuss them with a top trader but don't see it happening because they wouldn't have much reason to discuss potential edges with a random person on the internet

[stueytrader]

Thanks all for some good reading in your replies.

I went off and forgot I'd posted this, but plenty to digest for sure.

[Kai]

In my opinion trading ability is pretty non-transferable even through videos and calls never mind text, it would be like reading a book on how to play tennis better and then not actually being any better in reality.

I actually randomly read somewhere that 65% of people are visual learners, they retain 80% of what they see, but just 20% of what they read (!) and only 10% of what they hear. Sounds about right I think. So it's not exactly the same to visualize something from a wall of text, compared to P&L images or ladder clips etc.

But as difficult as trading is mentally and as challenging as penetrating the apparent market efficiency is, there are still far more difficult challenges and puzzles around that would make trading feel like a walk in the park. For example 5D Chess with multiverse time travel, where you play with temporal, spatial and parallel dimensions. It's basically a chess variant where you can move pieces back in time or send them to other dimensions and your goal is to protect your kings (plural) in both the present and the past. Maybe even normal chess would improve one's decision-making and end result, or it may encourage over-thinking, don't know.

Anyway, sharing some of your work is one thing but not sure I'm convinced about the concept of active teaching/mentoring, by doing that you set that person on a pre-determined path and you could be denying them that journey of self-discovery, who knows where they could find their niche and what market would suit them best, plus I'm sure no self-respecting person would want to be served every detail by someone else as that would take all the wonder out of the trading journey and it wouldn't feel as satisfying or fulfilling overall. I think casual mentoring is fine, you can give out rough guidelines and encourage people to explore the markets and to try things out and to be creative and make all the mistakes etc, but within a few core trading foundations to make sure they don't go off in wrong directions.