Anyone use a similar strategy?

[Tetras]

Thanks - I guess the problem is finding horses mid race you think are going to drop in price, and then again if you accept an offered price you could be taking bad valur as people have explained in here before.

It's a minefield I guess

I did actually start looking into laying the early leader, but what I found was often the lower the odds a horse starts a race the more often it wins (shock) so then started laying high price horses that took early leads cos they often for caught very quick.

I think with any strategy you need to be very clear about what exactly you're taking advantage of and what you're trying to achieve.

It's a super common problem for early trading strategies that a few losses wipe out the profits and most newbies look for some secret sauce that will avoid the losses and unlock infinite profit, when it is just a fact that the odds are against you.

With what you described, sometimes they're both opportunities, I will often lay favourites and outsiders that lead, but only when I can manage the risk. For example, a simple way of managing the risk in-running is just to say "I will exit every trade before the penultimate fence/hurdle". You'll take more losses, but they'll be significantly smaller. If you're willing to lose half, or all of your stake at massive prices in-play, it'll be game over real quick. Without a stop loss, you're probably better off not trading out for a profit, but you'd need a huge bank to absorb those kind of losses (and be very confident in the edge of your selections!).

[gazuty]

By no means an expert at all but the phrase 'pennies in front of a steamroller' spring to mind here. Unless you're taking value somewhere along the way you will end up b/e or at a loss and I can't see where the value is by just laying a hold up horse. If the horse is a known hold up horse and is running to form there's people with faster pictures than you/trackside/drones who will eat your stake for breakfast every time.

Correct. In my view this is a classic pennies in front of the steam roller strategy.

Hi

This is something Im thinking of and having mixed results with.

We all know at some point, all bar one horse will trade at 1000 and one at 1.01.

I know you said that horses that trade at 50 will lose more than 2 % of the time. But, I expect if you do a data dive you may find the opposite. In any case, if you leave the bet there for any amount of time, and the horse looks like winning your lay will be matched - ie someone watching the race will game your "lazy" bet. Don't put "lazy" bets in the market.

[Archery1969]

Do some analysis by track / racetype where hourses trade < 2 in-play and dont go onto win. Some of those stats through up some interesting ideas.

[Thebest147]

I can't really see how public knowledge websites like patterning can give any sort of edge as they are available to the public either paid for or not,horses aren't like formula one cars they don't preform the exact same way every time,

In running trading has changed from the back to lay horses at the front of the circle down at the start,as the market has factored in the initial more of 10ticks before the start,you would be better served to look at horses in running either at the front and say why isn't this horse coming in,in price answer is the market knows it won't stay the distance or can't jump well so are reluctant to bring the price in,these are poor value lays as the price will be to high and will crash in if still in the lead 3 furlongs out,

So in effect you could wait till 3 furlongs out the horse the market doesn't like will still be to high around sp and this will be your value back 2 lay,as people who laid to early will have to cut there trade this will help you because there backing will bring the price in for you,

Or if you go the other way look at a horse running poorly getting pushed along half way round and the price won't drift and you are asking yourself why is this horse not drifting,99% of the time it will be there at the finish,taken advantage of people who know how the race will pan out is key letting them do the work and you just nip in is the best option regarding risk reward trading

[thepressure]

I can't really see how public knowledge websites like patterning can give any sort of edge as they are available to the public either paid for or not,horses aren't like formula one cars they don't preform the exact same way every time,

In running trading has changed from the back to lay horses at the front of the circle down at the start,as the market has factored in the initial more of 10ticks before the start,you would be better served to look at horses in running either at the front and say why isn't this horse coming in,in price answer is the market knows it won't stay the distance or can't jump well so are reluctant to bring the price in,these are poor value lays as the price will be to high and will crash in if still in the lead 3 furlongs out,

So in effect you could wait till 3 furlongs out the horse the market doesn't like will still be to high around sp and this will be your value back 2 lay,as people who laid to early will have to cut there trade this will help you because there backing will bring the price in for you,

Or if you go the other way look at a horse running poorly getting pushed along half way round and the price won't drift and you are asking yourself why is this horse not drifting,99% of the time it will be there at the finish,taken advantage of people who know how the race will pan out is key letting them do the work and you just nip in is the best option regarding risk reward trading

I really appreciate your view, but, and this is a bigger question I guess, when you mention a leading horse where its price is staying high could be a poor value lay, the thing i dont get with this I guess is that the market for the most part is quite efficient, so wouldnt it be fair to say, it is the correct value, not over, not under priced?

Obviously I appreciate people need to get value against the market to be profitable, but there is also the aspect that due to the speed nothing is going to be perfectly priced and if a market hates a horse leading and the price stays high, who is to say if the price is 28/30/32....but the overall feel is the horse isnt going to finish well, so it is a good lay because the overall feel is its not going to get there ?

[Derek27]

I can't really see how public knowledge websites like patterning can give any sort of edge as they are available to the public either paid for or not,horses aren't like formula one cars they don't preform the exact same way every time,

In running trading has changed from the back to lay horses at the front of the circle down at the start,as the market has factored in the initial more of 10ticks before the start,you would be better served to look at horses in running either at the front and say why isn't this horse coming in,in price answer is the market knows it won't stay the distance or can't jump well so are reluctant to bring the price in,these are poor value lays as the price will be to high and will crash in if still in the lead 3 furlongs out,

So in effect you could wait till 3 furlongs out the horse the market doesn't like will still be to high around sp and this will be your value back 2 lay,as people who laid to early will have to cut there trade this will help you because there backing will bring the price in for you,

Or if you go the other way look at a horse running poorly getting pushed along half way round and the price won't drift and you are asking yourself why is this horse not drifting,99% of the time it will be there at the finish,taken advantage of people who know how the race will pan out is key letting them do the work and you just nip in is the best option regarding risk reward trading

I really appreciate your view, but, and this is a bigger question I guess, when you mention a leading horse where its price is staying high could be a poor value lay, the thing i dont get with this I guess is that the market for the most part is quite efficient, so wouldnt it be fair to say, it is the correct value, not over, not under priced?

Obviously I appreciate people need to get value against the market to be profitable, but there is also the aspect that due to the speed nothing is going to be perfectly priced and if a market hates a horse leading and the price stays high, who is to say if the price is 28/30/32....but the overall feel is the horse isnt going to finish well, so it is a good lay because the overall feel is its not going to get there ?

Horse racing markets certainly aren't efficient in-play. Regarding leading horses, a horse in the lead could be a pacemaker, could be going too fast and likely to tire or could be a front-runner gifted a soft lead and thus have a massive advantage. The shrewd race-readers will know and that's why the leaders can be backed down or stay high.

[Cardano]

I can't really see how public knowledge websites like patterning can give any sort of edge as they are available to the public either paid for or not,horses aren't like formula one cars they don't preform the exact same way every time,

In running trading has changed from the back to lay horses at the front of the circle down at the start,as the market has factored in the initial more of 10ticks before the start,you would be better served to look at horses in running either at the front and say why isn't this horse coming in,in price answer is the market knows it won't stay the distance or can't jump well so are reluctant to bring the price in,these are poor value lays as the price will be to high and will crash in if still in the lead 3 furlongs out,

So in effect you could wait till 3 furlongs out the horse the market doesn't like will still be to high around sp and this will be your value back 2 lay,as people who laid to early will have to cut there trade this will help you because there backing will bring the price in for you,

Or if you go the other way look at a horse running poorly getting pushed along half way round and the price won't drift and you are asking yourself why is this horse not drifting,99% of the time it will be there at the finish,taken advantage of people who know how the race will pan out is key letting them do the work and you just nip in is the best option regarding risk reward trading

I really appreciate your view, but, and this is a bigger question I guess, when you mention a leading horse where its price is staying high could be a poor value lay, the thing i dont get with this I guess is that the market for the most part is quite efficient, so wouldnt it be fair to say, it is the correct value, not over, not under priced?

Obviously I appreciate people need to get value against the market to be profitable, but there is also the aspect that due to the speed nothing is going to be perfectly priced and if a market hates a horse leading and the price stays high, who is to say if the price is 28/30/32....but the overall feel is the horse isnt going to finish well, so it is a good lay because the overall feel is its not going to get there ?

Horse racing markets certainly aren't efficient in-play. Regarding leading horses, a horse in the lead could be a pacemaker, could be going too fast and likely to tire or could be a front-runner gifted a soft lead and thus have a massive advantage. The shrewd race-readers will know and that's why the leaders can be backed down or stay high.

Lot's of opportunities for making profits then
With the right strategies of course

[LinusP]

Obviously I appreciate people need to get value against the market to be profitable, but there is also the aspect that due to the speed nothing is going to be perfectly priced and if a market hates a horse leading and the price stays high, who is to say if the price is 28/30/32....but the overall feel is the horse isnt going to finish well, so it is a good lay because the overall feel is its not going to get there ?

The game isn't about being right or wrong it's about getting value.

In your example there is a price which is correct (or break even long term) the trick is first calculating that price and the second (far harder part) actually getting matched.

[thepressure]

Im certainly none the wiser then haha

The more I learn the less I know

[Cardano]

Obviously I appreciate people need to get value against the market to be profitable, but there is also the aspect that due to the speed nothing is going to be perfectly priced and if a market hates a horse leading and the price stays high, who is to say if the price is 28/30/32....but the overall feel is the horse isnt going to finish well, so it is a good lay because the overall feel is its not going to get there ?

Forget about 'laying' horses at the back of the field.
You need to be concentrating on where the action is at the front of the field
And 'leading' horses ain't going to be priced at 28/30/32....

[thepressure]

Obviously I appreciate people need to get value against the market to be profitable, but there is also the aspect that due to the speed nothing is going to be perfectly priced and if a market hates a horse leading and the price stays high, who is to say if the price is 28/30/32....but the overall feel is the horse isnt going to finish well, so it is a good lay because the overall feel is its not going to get there ?

The game isn't about being right or wrong it's about getting value.

In your example there is a price which is correct (or break even long term) the trick is first calculating that price and the second (far harder part) actually getting matched.

In a 10 horse race thats 4 mins long, I find it hard to believe that anyone has time to perfectly calcualte every horses price every millisecond correctly though. How can you gain "value" in this situtatoin?

[thepressure]

Obviously I appreciate people need to get value against the market to be profitable, but there is also the aspect that due to the speed nothing is going to be perfectly priced and if a market hates a horse leading and the price stays high, who is to say if the price is 28/30/32....but the overall feel is the horse isnt going to finish well, so it is a good lay because the overall feel is its not going to get there ?

Forget about 'laying' horses at the back of the field.
You need to be concentrating on where the action is at the front of the field
And 'leading' horses ain't going to be priced at 28/30/32....

Plenty of races go off where the early leaders are 20+, like lots of the time?

[rik]

Why should backing at 100 be value when few moments before laying 50 was
there might be an argument of trading volatility on small stakes but your general premise when laying 50 is that you think chances of a comeback for the runner are less likely than odds imply, then few moments later you think chances are better than what odds imply, not much sense in that

[ShaunWhite]

Trying to "trade" overcomplicates things for beginners, if they can't find 1 value bet then finding >1 on the same selection, and opposing bets at that, which are net value isn't exactly making it any easier. They'd be better off learning how you make a profit from betting first.

[arch4672]

In a 10 horse race thats 4 mins long, I find it hard to believe that anyone has time to perfectly calcualte every horses price every millisecond correctly though. How can you gain "value" in this situtatoin?

People can't do it, but computers can. If you use the streaming API you get the market book every time there's an update (bets placed, bets matched, bets cancelled) and get the computer to estimate fair prices from that. Couple that with TPD data and you can make more accurate estimates.