Not a fuxxingain
Me after first race today.
Nice trading quote
Good one. Yes, I think the secret is to be selective. Wait for the really big opportunities then go in huge and swing for a '6' (cricket analogy). You know, looking back over the last year, virtually all my losses have been trying for pennies on rubbish racing, whereas swinging for a '6' on the rare big opportunities always got me big wins.Ferru123 wrote:"Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch it's prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antelope, and not just any baby antelope, but preferably also one that is sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose its prey, does it attack. That, to me, is the epitome of professional trading" -
Mark Weinstein (Market Wizard)
A good example of a 'big opportunity' was 'Blue Bunting' (In-Play) in the Irish Oaks. It takes discipline to refrain from betting on the rubbish racing, but it also takes 'big balls' to do the opposite and go in huge when the moment demands it.
Hi Zenyatta
I'm all for trying to swing the ball out of the park, and letting your profits run, but the challenge is that massive trends are only visible in hindsight. A horse might have moved from 5.0 to 2.0, with every backer in the country throwing the kitchen sink at the horse. But who's to say it won't reverse sharply as soon as you enter the market?
At any given moment, a market is neither trending or non-trending; all trends are historical. And no-one knows in advance when the market will really take off, or how far it will go. So you have to accept that there will be lots of small wins and losses as well as the occasional home run, and therefore I would use conservative staking.
Jeff
I'm all for trying to swing the ball out of the park, and letting your profits run, but the challenge is that massive trends are only visible in hindsight. A horse might have moved from 5.0 to 2.0, with every backer in the country throwing the kitchen sink at the horse. But who's to say it won't reverse sharply as soon as you enter the market?
At any given moment, a market is neither trending or non-trending; all trends are historical. And no-one knows in advance when the market will really take off, or how far it will go. So you have to accept that there will be lots of small wins and losses as well as the occasional home run, and therefore I would use conservative staking.
Jeff
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SilentDave
- Posts: 199
- Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2010 11:30 am
I think maybe what Zenyatta is saying is to be more selective but more aggressive. This is something I definitely need to do.
I lose on many markets when I just shouldn't be involved but when I have waited for a good opportunity I should have the confidence to go in hard - if I don't have the confidence to be aggressive in a market then it probably isn't a good opportunity. Easier said than done for me but I am actively trying to do this.
I lose on many markets when I just shouldn't be involved but when I have waited for a good opportunity I should have the confidence to go in hard - if I don't have the confidence to be aggressive in a market then it probably isn't a good opportunity. Easier said than done for me but I am actively trying to do this.
Hi Dave
I agree about being selective - when I enter a market that doesn't feel right, I generally lose money.
All I'm saying is that, unless you have the gift of second sight, you don't know when and where that 20 tick steam is going to arise.
As for going in hard, if you have an edge your bank will quickly compound with modest stakes, so IMHO it doesn't make sense to risk over-exposing yourself.
Jeff
I agree about being selective - when I enter a market that doesn't feel right, I generally lose money.
All I'm saying is that, unless you have the gift of second sight, you don't know when and where that 20 tick steam is going to arise.
As for going in hard, if you have an edge your bank will quickly compound with modest stakes, so IMHO it doesn't make sense to risk over-exposing yourself. Jeff
Yes, Jeff, see what Dave said, you know in Poker how it's recommended you play 'tight' (being selective about which hands to stay in) and 'aggressive' (betting to the max on the good hands). Same thing.
Here's an example of playing tight and agressive. Remember 'Blue Bunting' in the Irish Oaks. Form students knew it was a hold-up performer (comes from the rear) with a huge finish. It's SP was 3.80. In-Play it passed 10.00 (back), passed 20.00 (back), passed 30.00 (back), passing 40.00 (still backing!),passing 50.00, 60.00, 70.00+ In-Play, just keep hitting the back button and throwing hundreds at it, and then:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAhGFqAZ_hk
Hey presto, you've just hit the ball right out of the park! Sometimes you really do need big balls to win. But it's pychologically very hard for people to oppose the crowd.
Here's an example of playing tight and agressive. Remember 'Blue Bunting' in the Irish Oaks. Form students knew it was a hold-up performer (comes from the rear) with a huge finish. It's SP was 3.80. In-Play it passed 10.00 (back), passed 20.00 (back), passed 30.00 (back), passing 40.00 (still backing!),passing 50.00, 60.00, 70.00+ In-Play, just keep hitting the back button and throwing hundreds at it, and then:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAhGFqAZ_hk
Hey presto, you've just hit the ball right out of the park! Sometimes you really do need big balls to win. But it's pychologically very hard for people to oppose the crowd.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Comes down to probability in the end. I don't enter my trades thinking this is a definite winning trade I enter thinking I have an 80% chance this is a winning trade, for example.Ferru123 wrote:All I'm saying is that, unless you have the gift of second sight, you don't know when and where that 20 tick steam is going to arise.
So you might not know for certain you are entering a winning trade but over time as long as you play with the probabilities on your side and you get your staking right you will come out in front.
Losing trades are part and parcel of trading.
I agree.
BTW, here's a trading quote on that theme:
'When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right and wrong or win and lose no longer have the same significance'.
Mark Douglas
BTW, here's a trading quote on that theme:
'When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right and wrong or win and lose no longer have the same significance'.
Mark Douglas
andyfuller wrote: So you might not know for certain you are entering a winning trade but over time as long as you play with the probabilities on your side and you get your staking right you will come out in front.
Losing trades are part and parcel of trading.
Hi People ,
i had almost quit to-day after losing all my bank again. bla bla bla. you all know youve been there,when someone sent me this quote from my favourite motovational pearson ,Brian Tracy .,
.........................................
Don't be afraid to take chances. Most people achieved their greatest successes one step beyond what looked like their greatest failure.
brian tracy...................
i had almost quit to-day after losing all my bank again. bla bla bla. you all know youve been there,when someone sent me this quote from my favourite motovational pearson ,Brian Tracy .,
.........................................
Don't be afraid to take chances. Most people achieved their greatest successes one step beyond what looked like their greatest failure.
brian tracy...................
Hi Convoysur
Sorry to hear that.
If I were you, I would start with practice mode, and only use real money once you're profiting consistently and are confident you know what you're doing.
And consider this. If you trade at random, you'll more or less break even. So today, either you were unlucky or doing things that made you a worse trader than a random number generator!
I think people sabotage their trading by staying in bad trades and getting out of good trades as soon as they've got a small profit. It's due to the way humans respond emotionally to winning and losing money. You might want to have a listen to this recording by a guy called Mark Douglas, who's written a book you've probably heard of, called Trading In The Zone:
http://www.woodiescciclub.com/Lectures/ ... /index.htm
I came across a nice quote recently: 'Don't bet the deli to win a pickle!'.
Jeff
Sorry to hear that.
If I were you, I would start with practice mode, and only use real money once you're profiting consistently and are confident you know what you're doing.
And consider this. If you trade at random, you'll more or less break even. So today, either you were unlucky or doing things that made you a worse trader than a random number generator!
I think people sabotage their trading by staying in bad trades and getting out of good trades as soon as they've got a small profit. It's due to the way humans respond emotionally to winning and losing money. You might want to have a listen to this recording by a guy called Mark Douglas, who's written a book you've probably heard of, called Trading In The Zone:
http://www.woodiescciclub.com/Lectures/ ... /index.htm
I came across a nice quote recently: 'Don't bet the deli to win a pickle!'.
Jeff
Ferru
Thank you,
unfortunatly ,it just takes time,alot of time . ive been playing around now for 6 months,spent hundreds of hours studying, reading ,watching videos,trying to find and perfect my edge,even to properly use betangel takes a hell alot of practice and mistakes have to be made so one can learn, this forum really helps ,thee would be no chance without it and the angel.i will master it,gone through to much S""t to stop now.
Regards
Marc (THANKS FOR THE LINK )
Thank you,
unfortunatly ,it just takes time,alot of time . ive been playing around now for 6 months,spent hundreds of hours studying, reading ,watching videos,trying to find and perfect my edge,even to properly use betangel takes a hell alot of practice and mistakes have to be made so one can learn, this forum really helps ,thee would be no chance without it and the angel.i will master it,gone through to much S""t to stop now.
Regards
Marc (THANKS FOR THE LINK )
Good luck Marc.
I think an important thing to remember is that trading success is as much due to your own discipline as the techniques you use. Have you considered techniques like meditation, in order to get yourself in the right frame of mind for effective trading?
Jeff
I think an important thing to remember is that trading success is as much due to your own discipline as the techniques you use. Have you considered techniques like meditation, in order to get yourself in the right frame of mind for effective trading?
Jeff
Hi Jeff,
true,true . the mind set is a very valuable tool. my background is sales, after attending a brian tracy seminar.i learned how affective visuliation is,i would sit in my car for 30 -40 seconds before a meeting with a client and visulaise the whole sales process and see my self leaving with the contract signed.
this alone increased my sales by at least one per week,with an adverage commission of 2.000 euros per sales,
why ive forgoten to use my mind tools i cant say ,
i guess i get complacent .i would say 70% of my mistakes on the exchange are mind games. Fear,Money fear, wrong entrance, wrong exit, thank you for reminding me .i must get the head right before i load up guardian.
can we get peter to add a warning when we are opening guardian????,,CAUTION HAVE YOU ENGAGED YOUR TRADING HEAD BEFORE LOADING GUARDIAN.
happy trading
Regards
Marc
true,true . the mind set is a very valuable tool. my background is sales, after attending a brian tracy seminar.i learned how affective visuliation is,i would sit in my car for 30 -40 seconds before a meeting with a client and visulaise the whole sales process and see my self leaving with the contract signed.
this alone increased my sales by at least one per week,with an adverage commission of 2.000 euros per sales,
why ive forgoten to use my mind tools i cant say ,
i guess i get complacent .i would say 70% of my mistakes on the exchange are mind games. Fear,Money fear, wrong entrance, wrong exit, thank you for reminding me .i must get the head right before i load up guardian.
can we get peter to add a warning when we are opening guardian????,,CAUTION HAVE YOU ENGAGED YOUR TRADING HEAD BEFORE LOADING GUARDIAN.
happy trading
Regards
Marc
No, if you trade at random you will lose at the rate of Betfair commission 2%-5%. Trading involves repeatedly recycling your bank very rapidly, and as any newbie can tell you, without an edge, this will result in you repeatedly and rapidly blowing your entire bank... even if you are just a tiny fraction below break-even.Ferru123 wrote:
And consider this. If you trade at random, you'll more or less break even. So today, either you were unlucky or doing things that made you a worse trader than a random number generator!
Jeff