Pre-race cross matching
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andyfuller
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Good point raised here on the BF forum:Euler wrote:I guess R4's will be dealt with in the same fashion as before? They will just treat a matched bet as being part of that adjustment. We will have to wait for the first R4 to know?
So as I understand it, the cross-matching means that Betfair can accommodate a back bet by laying all the other runners in the market, giving the backer better odds than might have otherwise been available.
What then happens when a non-runner is taken out of the market? Unless the cross-matched lay bet and the non-runner reduction factor just happen to be perfectly aligned, someone will be out of pocket.
If you knew that a horse was a certain non-runner, isn't there now the possibility of screwing over Betfair? Something like this should work:
1) Back the soon-to-be non-runner for large chunks of money at very low odds.
2) Having cleared out the book on this runner, put in a lay offer at low odds.
3) Back other runners. These bets will the x-matched with the lay bet in 2)
When the non-runner is removed, bets from 1) and 2) will be cancelled. Your bets from 3) will stand, subject to the reduction factor. But unless Betfair are quick to adjust the RF, you will have made money.
I think they will take most of the scalpers profits, and being able to do it with the lowest execution time makes a huge difference.Exacta wrote:Putting cross matching on horses is going to be a goldmine for them. How much could they skim of these markets?
How long before Betfair just offer the middle two prices themselves and become just a normal bookmaker? Is this the next step?
May be interesting to see how this affects market manipulation however, strikes me it may make it a little harder to manipulate the market but enough speculation, lets nervously await 12:45
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spreadbetting
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I think it'll certainly scare off the spoofers sitting in box 2lewismbet wrote:I think they will take most of the scalpers profits, and being able to do it with the lowest execution time makes a huge difference.Exacta wrote:Putting cross matching on horses is going to be a goldmine for them. How much could they skim of these markets?
How long before Betfair just offer the middle two prices themselves and become just a normal bookmaker? Is this the next step?
May be interesting to see how this affects market manipulation however, strikes me it may make it a little harder to manipulate the market but enough speculation, lets nervously await 12:45
I'm waiting to see how they deal with the first non runners and ready to cash in if they haven't changed the way they usually work, could be a very nice earner. Also opens up a lot of avenues for some of the lets say less scrupulous trainers to set of false gambles and then withdraw before the off, easy cash without the worry of even winning a race. I've seen a few races where it's happened in the past but the market is now ripe for it to happen.
Likely to be a while before we get the full impact though especially with the lack of racing at the moment.
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rogerpalmtree
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Is there a list somewhere of which events use cross matching?
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andyfuller
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Took me 7 days to get a response about the impact of a late WD on the i/r XM. Can you let us know their response when you get it please.Bet Angel wrote:We dropped a note to Betfair last night asking them to explain the impact of a withdrawn horse and the pre-off markets. We await a response.
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spreadbetting
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What was their response about the nr for in running Andy?
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Sorry meant to include it in my post and forgot, so here it is:
"Dear Andrew,
Firstly please accept our apologies for the delay in getting a response however it did prove difficult finding the exact person within the company who deals with such queries.
I can now confirm in the event of a non-runner we do manually switch off the cross-matching system on a market to ensure customers do not get matched with the non runner. Although typically there could be the risk of an operator error or a technical issue which would prevent us doing this however we do also have a number of mechanisms in place which would automatically turn the cross-matching off.
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any further enquiries."
Not sure what the number of mechanisms in place which would automatically turn the cross-matching off are though.
"Dear Andrew,
Firstly please accept our apologies for the delay in getting a response however it did prove difficult finding the exact person within the company who deals with such queries.
I can now confirm in the event of a non-runner we do manually switch off the cross-matching system on a market to ensure customers do not get matched with the non runner. Although typically there could be the risk of an operator error or a technical issue which would prevent us doing this however we do also have a number of mechanisms in place which would automatically turn the cross-matching off.
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any further enquiries."
Not sure what the number of mechanisms in place which would automatically turn the cross-matching off are though.
We asked betfair the following:
Imagine a three runner race where a user has traded runner 2 repeatedly backing and laying.
Normally if runner 2 was withdrawn all bets would be voided.
However, with cross matching, when backing runner 2, the user may instead be matched by laying runners 1 and 3. If all the runner 2 bets were voided, would he be left with two unvoided lay bets on the other two runners? If so, he could suddenly find himself with an uneven P&L and be subject to a reduction factor, whereas before the bets would have simply been voided.
However if the cross matched bets were voided, then what about the customer(s) bets he originally cross matched against? They can't be voided on runners 1 & 3, otherwise those users would have an uneven P&L instead.
All we can think is that betfair is going to void the first customers bets on runner 2 (regardless of whether they cross matched or not), but also honour the matched bets of the other customers on runners 1 & 3 so that no-one gets any nasty surprises in their P&L. Betfair would then be carrying net liability into the race and would then make extra profit or loss depending on which runner wins.
They replied and confirmed that our thinking was correct and that the customer's bets on runner 2 would be voided (even if they'd actually been cross-matched against 1 & 3). Also all matched bets on other runners by all customers would be honoured.
Imagine a three runner race where a user has traded runner 2 repeatedly backing and laying.
Normally if runner 2 was withdrawn all bets would be voided.
However, with cross matching, when backing runner 2, the user may instead be matched by laying runners 1 and 3. If all the runner 2 bets were voided, would he be left with two unvoided lay bets on the other two runners? If so, he could suddenly find himself with an uneven P&L and be subject to a reduction factor, whereas before the bets would have simply been voided.
However if the cross matched bets were voided, then what about the customer(s) bets he originally cross matched against? They can't be voided on runners 1 & 3, otherwise those users would have an uneven P&L instead.
All we can think is that betfair is going to void the first customers bets on runner 2 (regardless of whether they cross matched or not), but also honour the matched bets of the other customers on runners 1 & 3 so that no-one gets any nasty surprises in their P&L. Betfair would then be carrying net liability into the race and would then make extra profit or loss depending on which runner wins.
They replied and confirmed that our thinking was correct and that the customer's bets on runner 2 would be voided (even if they'd actually been cross-matched against 1 & 3). Also all matched bets on other runners by all customers would be honoured.
As I understand, cross-matching is being executed at "deeper" level, so for us there is no difference if we were matched with someone at same runner, or with someone at different runners. Without crossing we are just matched with a narrower array of punters and vice versa...
ok I realised with this I don;t actually know exactly what the cross matching does!
Can someone confirm which of the following 2 situations the cross matching fits?
1, the cross matching displays a combination of lays as an avaliable back bet on a runner. This will give us a lower fill rate as we would be in effect competing for the same matched money against the cross matcher.
2, The cross matcher actually matches a combination of Lays against an available back order on another runner? If this is the case we will simply see it as volume and should see a net higher fill rate?
3, a combination of the above?
JR
Can someone confirm which of the following 2 situations the cross matching fits?
1, the cross matching displays a combination of lays as an avaliable back bet on a runner. This will give us a lower fill rate as we would be in effect competing for the same matched money against the cross matcher.
2, The cross matcher actually matches a combination of Lays against an available back order on another runner? If this is the case we will simply see it as volume and should see a net higher fill rate?
3, a combination of the above?
JR
