1.01 loser statistics

[Euler]

Data mining is statistical deja vu. I learnt a long time ago that looking at stats and doing something with them were two entirely different things. It's still interesting to look at them though.

[giulio2010]

hey ferru I forgot to mention that sometimes I dont hit just 2 horses at 1.1 but, the same horse on 100/1 and lay1.1, this is one example of it
this is anSelection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Abulharith 100.00 5.00 Back 25-Nov-10 19:05 495.00
Abulharith 1.10 454.55 Lay 25-Nov-10 19:06 -45.46
*Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 495.00
Lay subtotal: -45.46
Market subtotal: 449.54
Commission @ 4.9%: 22.03
Net Market Total: 427.51

I have just noticed I have paid 22.03 commission..what a theft..

[Yoshiii]

The problem with 1.01 lays is that there will (in the main) be someone in front of you in the que...(unless you can submit your bets as soon as the market is available on Betfair)..
I had my first 1.01 on the 26th May ((The Nifty Fox at Ary), although I had a nice sum matched, it wasn't all matched..

Correct. As far as i know, it's FIFO principle. So right when the market opens you should already place your bet, but i'm very suspicious of Betfair also having some money matched at 1.01 because I never seemed to be the first.

So then rises the question, with what amount should you lay all the 1.01 losers? You must find the amound that is at average matched so you always win your full amount but don't lose too much if it does win.

[Iron]

So then rises the question, with what amount should you lay all the 1.01 losers? You must find the amound that is at average matched so you always win your full amount but don't lose too much if it does win.

According to the Kelly Criterion, if you're betting at odds of 99-1 and the true odds of a win are 1.5%, then your optimal bet is 0.51% of your capital, and you can expect your fortune to grow by 0.11% per bet on average. See http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php. Note that, although the Kelly Criterion is theoretically the fastest way to grow a bank, it's also risky, and there won't be many hedge fund managers who use it!

BTW, do you find that laying at 1.01 is particularly effective over short distances, as backers possibly have less time to assess what's going on?

Jeff

[Yoshiii]

I don't know yet, i will soon sort it on distance and type of race and see what pops out

[Photon]

It is possible to make a decent return by laying 1.01 and some people using this strategy already as there always at least £5k on the lay side of each race.

On average £0.51 (£0.44 after commission) per race on my estimation. (excuse the format as I'm not sure how, if it is possible, to insert table)

Outcome P&L £ Success Rate Return 1 £ Commission Net Return
Win 99 1.51% 1.49 -0.07 1.42
Lose -1 98.49% -0.98 0.00 -0.98
100% 0.51 0.44

But you have to overcome three hurdles:

1) Not all your lay bets will match due to your number in the queue
2) Amount that gets matched on the losing horse (27/12/09 DownR only £1.80 got matched) - but because this is part of 1.51% success rate your overall return is greatly impacted this
3) Assuming that you lay all races

If you, for example, if your bets get matched on 80% of the time & you manage to lay the entire field on 80% of the races then you will roughly breakeven.

So to increase success rate you have to be quite ahead in the queue (so laying early) and lay maximum, if not all, number of races.

Yoshiii are you able to share:

1) How many times the numbers of matched amount were lower than £1,000?
2) What is the average matched amount?

[Yoshiii]

Ok I will give me a day or so

[Yoshiii]

The average amounts are:

2009 £2.494
2008 £3.265

For full list see website and im going to look for the amount under the 1.000 or less maybe.

[rubysglory]

Also, is it not possible that the edge that your statistics has suggested exists is due to random chance?
Jeff

If there was a statistical variation of win ratio : price probability at the 1.01 range is it not possible that this is a result of the true winning chance of each and every 1.01 chance actually being infinitely progressively less than 1.01 as each and every event is being finalised ? Just a thought.

rg

[Yoshiii]

Just a little update for everyone . Website is still updated every month with statistics and as it looks now, there are more and more gubbings.

Latest 1.01 losers with pretty big amounts of money matched:

30-4-2011 13:30 Newm 1m4f Grp2 Native Ruler £17.161,10
29-4-2011 13:30 Donc 1m Mdn Stks Royal Hush £46.139,28
26-4-2011 15:20 Extr 2m3f Nov Hrd Saras Smile £12.379,24
25-4-2011 14:50 MrktR 2m4f Hcap Chs Akarshan £9.361,56
25-4-2011 13:35 Fairy 2m4f Grd2 Hrd Blackstairmountain £15.575,44

[Iron]

Hi Yoshiii

Do you normally get one per day on average?

Jeff

Just a little update for everyone

[PeterLe]

I was just reviewng the betfair data from the 2-8 May..

£27.36 was traded on horses at 1000 and won
£58K was traded on 1.01 and lost
£12.86m placed on horses at 1.1 or less and won
£349K Placed on horses at 1.1 or less and lost

This was just win GB markets

I'm sure the markets are efficient particular in the lower odds, but i would have thought the £349K figure would have been higher?

[LeTiss]

The average amounts are:

2009 £2.494
2008 £3.265

For full list see website and im going to look for the amount under the 1.000 or less maybe.

That sums up how difficult this strategy is

You need to be at the front of the queue and invariably there's thousands already sat there in the mornings

[Yoshiii]

For 2010 the statistics are

Win: 0,48 losers per day
Place: 1,18 losers per day

On average....

It is true that it is difficult to be the first in the queue and I agree that it might not be profitable because of this. I never said this I just gather the data, it might be profitable for somebody. Besides, it is also fun to see how much money is being wasted / won on 1.01 and 1000/1

Hi Yoshiii

Do you normally get one per day on average?

Jeff

Just a little update for everyone

[enzabella2009]

I have just checked my 2nd account set for new strategys, I have found a little surprise..

Surprise 1.01 140.00 Lay 09-Jun-11 16:09 09-Jun-11 17:33 140.00
The horse came 2nd..