(BLOG) Laying the Lame: Betting against the odds favorites

[Fugazi]

OP, with some help of gpt I calculated the below. I assume all dogs are laid at 3-1 even stakes. Room for 5% error margin on ROI

For 99% confidence, you would need approximately 498 bets.
For 99.9% confidence, you would need approximately 812 bets.
For 99.99% confidence, you would need approximately 1,135 bets.

With a 1% margin of error:

99% confidence: approximately 12,442 bets.
99.9% confidence: approximately 20,308 bets.
99.99% confidence: approximately 28,387 bets.


So OP, for this thread to give any real credit, at 5 bets a day I'd need at least 6 months and even then its still a bit of a punt to invest, increasingly so the smaller your ROI.

However, your strategy is similar to ones that I know Archery has used in the past successfully so you're certainly not far off a winning strategy if it isn't already correct

Sorry, I'm new here... Which Archery are you talking about? Is there somewhere I can check out his strategy to compare it with mine?

Search the thread "greyhound mystique"

In my biased opinion the most valuable thread on the forum

[Dogfather]

Fugazi Thank you for the tip! I haven’t read the entire topic, but I got the gist of it. It’s a bit different from what I’m focused on. Archery seems to concentrate more on odds rather than a deep analysis of form and such, which makes sense since he’s a trader. I’m more interested in value bets.

[jamesedwards]

I’m more interested in value bets.

Odds are an integral part of a value bet, yet you seem to pretty much ignore them completely. You can't say something is a value lay without comparing it's chance of winning to the available odds.

eg hitting zero on a roulette wheel is unlikely to win, but is not a value lay unless you can match at 35.9/1 or less.

Posting a selection as a value lay is meaningless until you add a target price. eg "11:21 (R4) Grade: (A4) Distance: 450m Spot On Bud a value lay at anything under 3/1".

[Dogfather]

I’m more interested in value bets.

Odds are an integral part of a value bet, yet you seem to pretty much ignore them completely. You can't say something is a value lay without comparing it's chance of winning to the available odds.

eg hitting zero on a roulette wheel is unlikely to win, but is not a value lay unless you can match at 35.9/1 or less.

Posting a selection as a value lay is meaningless until you add a target price. eg "11:21 (R4) Grade: (A4) Distance: 450m Spot On Bud a value lay at anything under 3/1".

I never said odds aren't important. They're damn important! That's exactly why I said earlier that I don't see the point in laying bets with odds higher than 4. All I meant was that for my strategy, it doesn't matter if the odds go up or down – this isn't trading. What matters is whether the dog loses more often than the market expects. Regarding posting a selection - I understand it would be much easier if I could just tell you the exact odds to bet at. However, I simply can't know that! How about this: anything below 3.50 odds is a 100% value bet.

[Fugazi]

I think you're both trying to explain the same thing

[Dogfather]

Yesterday's results:
5 wins
0 losses

What can I say, it's Kinsley day, we gonna be rich, just lay that b...ch. I`m sorry

Today our favorite turtles:

Kinsley

14:48 (R2) Grade: (A6) Distance: 462m Lolita
15:07 (R3) Grade: (A4) Distance: 462m Elusive Mischief
15:44 (R5) Grade: (A5) Distance: 462m Leticias Pride
16:41 (R8) Grade: (A7) Distance: 462m Unlikely Liv
17:56 (R12) Grade: (A5) Distance: 462m Margarets Street

I'll be out of town this weekend, so the next forecast is on Monday

[sionascaig]

Yesterday's results:
5 wins
0 losses

What can I say, it's Kinsley day, we gonna be rich, just lay that b...ch. I`m sorry

Today our favorite turtles:

Kinsley

14:48 (R2) Grade: (A6) Distance: 462m Lolita
15:07 (R3) Grade: (A4) Distance: 462m Elusive Mischief
15:44 (R5) Grade: (A5) Distance: 462m Leticias Pride
16:41 (R8) Grade: (A7) Distance: 462m Unlikely Liv
17:56 (R12) Grade: (A5) Distance: 462m Margarets Street

I'll be out of town this weekend, so the next forecast is on Monday

At the risk of stating the obvious.. The bigger your prediction success is the more likely folk will follow and the bigger the prices will become to get a match.

Good luck with your endeavours though...

PS: May be best to get matched before publishing (if not already doing that)...

[Dogfather]

sionascaig I understand that, but I'm not famous enough to be followed by a lot of people. I believe the impact of this topic on the market is around 0

[Crazyskier]

Yesterday's results:
5 wins
0 losses

What can I say, it's Kinsley day, we gonna be rich, just lay that b...ch. I`m sorry

Today our favorite turtles:

Kinsley

14:48 (R2) Grade: (A6) Distance: 462m Lolita
15:07 (R3) Grade: (A4) Distance: 462m Elusive Mischief
15:44 (R5) Grade: (A5) Distance: 462m Leticias Pride
16:41 (R8) Grade: (A7) Distance: 462m Unlikely Liv
17:56 (R12) Grade: (A5) Distance: 462m Margarets Street

I'll be out of town this weekend, so the next forecast is on Monday

I watch with interest

CS

[Archery1969]

My old thread morphed into:

Last grade ran
Last distance ran
Last time ran
Last sp

And

Current grade
Current distance

And

Offering odds between the extreme prices on offer based on a value percentage which ranges between 100% to 20%. All trades are closed 20 seconds before the official start time.

There are 2 other main ingredients which I am unable to post due to NDA agreements as I sold the system and now just get a monthly royalty fee.

My main reason for doing so was because I couldn’t scale up anymore and I wanted to concentrate on doing what makes me happy.

However, given the above, I’m sure one or two on here and Peter/Euler will easily figure out the missing parts.

Anyway, good luck.

[Dogfather]

Archery1969, thank you for your post, I appreciate it. My system involves analyzing the results of the last four races in comparison to other competitors, as well as statistical data on the favorite's wins at a specific stadium/grade. Sorry, but I can't go into the details.

[Archery1969]

Archery1969, thank you for your post, I appreciate it. My system involves analyzing the results of the last four races in comparison to other competitors, as well as statistical data on the favorite's wins at a specific stadium/grade. Sorry, but I can't go into the details.

No problem.

For what it’s worth, My advice would be to keep it simple. I and multiple people on this forum initially looked at last 10 races down to just the previous one. We took averages based on time, form and grade.

The analysis of thousands of races showed nothing between how a dog did on its first or 10 race. A dogs form usually goes through ups and downs. So for my system we simplified it and just went with how it did last time out. Then apply and odds range, then offer prices in between, within a percentage margin.

That’s why you don’t get the same dog being the favourite coming 1st, 1st, 1st in different races. Sounds obvious, obviously but it took allot of help and data to confirm etc.

[Fugazi]

My old thread morphed into:

Last grade ran
Last distance ran
Last time ran
Last sp

And

Current grade
Current distance

And

Offering odds between the extreme prices on offer based on a value percentage which ranges between 100% to 20%. All trades are closed 20 seconds before the official start time.

There are 2 other main ingredients which I am unable to post due to NDA agreements as I sold the system and now just get a monthly royalty fee.

My main reason for doing so was because I couldn’t scale up anymore and I wanted to concentrate on doing what makes me happy.

However, given the above, I’m sure one or two on here and Peter/Euler will easily figure out the missing parts.

Anyway, good luck.

Wow, not heard of systems being properly sold before i.e NDAs. IMO a good move price dependent, never know when someone will decide racing greyhounds is cruel and should be banned, or taxes, or other issues. Though also whoever bought it is probably reading this.

[Archery1969]

My old thread morphed into:

Last grade ran
Last distance ran
Last time ran
Last sp

And

Current grade
Current distance

And

Offering odds between the extreme prices on offer based on a value percentage which ranges between 100% to 20%. All trades are closed 20 seconds before the official start time.

There are 2 other main ingredients which I am unable to post due to NDA agreements as I sold the system and now just get a monthly royalty fee.

My main reason for doing so was because I couldn’t scale up anymore and I wanted to concentrate on doing what makes me happy.

However, given the above, I’m sure one or two on here and Peter/Euler will easily figure out the missing parts.

Anyway, good luck.

Wow, not heard of systems being properly sold before i.e NDAs. IMO a good move price dependent, never know when someone will decide racing greyhounds is cruel and should be banned, or taxes, or other issues. Though also whoever bought it is probably reading this.

It was a sports betting company which I can’t name. They took the mechanics of it and applied to other sports. So the royalties I get come from any sport they chose to apply it too. Obviously the inputs were made dynamic per sport but the principles remained. This allowed them to scale up on other sports without spooking the individual market, which you would on dogs at some point.

They have deep pockets and were able to further enhance the infrastructure side of placing the actual trades.

I probably could have done the entire thing myself but it would have taken allot of up front investment and in the end I couldn’t be bothered.

To use the old saying, somebody else takes all the risk and costs, I just get a monthly payment which is more than enough for my needs…

[ForFolksSake]

All trades are closed 20 seconds before the official start time.

Crucially, what's the entry point/time ?