Tracking a Simple Automation Strategy on Correct Scores

[ForFolksSake]

Excellent idea

Tracking a Simple Automation Strategy on Correct Scores

Excellent idea

[FTAcademy]

Out of more than 56000 matches, I managed to create the attached Heat Map on Correct Scores.

[ForFolksSake]

Out of more than 56000 matches, I managed to create the attached Heat Map on Correct Scores.

Very Interesting.
That's definitely a candidate for SV's

[TupleVision]

Hey everyone,

I’ve decided to start tracking a simple automation strategy on the Correct Score market and would love to share my progress while also getting your insights along the way.

Strategy Overview
Approach: Straight backing the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 10th favorite scores (back 1 tick above best market price) in most football matches with sufficient liquidity, one hour before.
Liquidity Filter: Minimum €1,000 matched on the Correct Score market, one hour before kick-off
Liability: Fixed stake €1 per back bet, meaning a total liability of €5 per match
Reasoning: The Correct Score market on Betfair has 19 possible outcomes, but many of these are just filler. The majority of matches revolve around common, repeatable scorelines.

Why This Strategy?
Instead of spreading bets across all scorelines, this basic method focuses on backing only the most realistic outcomes while keeping things simple and one score that might be a surprise. The market is efficient and know best what are the most probable results. The idea is to test whether targeting these specific scorelines provides an edge over time. Backtesting this, profit should come on all 5 selections the least being on 1st favorite score

What to Expect
Regular updates with results and insights
Tweaks and optimizations based on performance
Open discussion for suggestions and improvements

List with things to consider soon for improvements
Back at SP if first back bet was not completed
Store values
Stake for same profit, considering that big difference in odds
Establish and exit point (e.g., if only 10 minutes left and another goal will bring us outside our CS selections, then lay bet on current CS)

Rules file attached.

Would love to hear your thoughts! Feel free to follow along, share suggestions, or even test it out yourself. Let’s see how this evolves.

Why the 10th favourite score, why not the 8th or the 12th? If the 10th in particular is frequently mis-priced then you've found your edge right there, forget the rest of the 'strategy'. I'm struggling to see where the value is other than attempting to back at a tick above market price, on the well formed leagues most of the value is already baked into the prices anyway.

[FTAcademy]

Hey everyone,

I’ve decided to start tracking a simple automation strategy on the Correct Score market and would love to share my progress while also getting your insights along the way.

Strategy Overview
Approach: Straight backing the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 10th favorite scores (back 1 tick above best market price) in most football matches with sufficient liquidity, one hour before.
Liquidity Filter: Minimum €1,000 matched on the Correct Score market, one hour before kick-off
Liability: Fixed stake €1 per back bet, meaning a total liability of €5 per match
Reasoning: The Correct Score market on Betfair has 19 possible outcomes, but many of these are just filler. The majority of matches revolve around common, repeatable scorelines.

Why This Strategy?
Instead of spreading bets across all scorelines, this basic method focuses on backing only the most realistic outcomes while keeping things simple and one score that might be a surprise. The market is efficient and know best what are the most probable results. The idea is to test whether targeting these specific scorelines provides an edge over time. Backtesting this, profit should come on all 5 selections the least being on 1st favorite score

What to Expect
Regular updates with results and insights
Tweaks and optimizations based on performance
Open discussion for suggestions and improvements

List with things to consider soon for improvements
Back at SP if first back bet was not completed
Store values
Stake for same profit, considering that big difference in odds
Establish and exit point (e.g., if only 10 minutes left and another goal will bring us outside our CS selections, then lay bet on current CS)

Rules file attached.

Would love to hear your thoughts! Feel free to follow along, share suggestions, or even test it out yourself. Let’s see how this evolves.

Why the 10th favourite score, why not the 8th or the 12th? If the 10th in particular is frequently mis-priced then you've found your edge right there, forget the rest of the 'strategy'. I'm struggling to see where the value is other than attempting to back at a tick above market price, on the well formed leagues most of the value is already baked into the prices anyway.

The 10th CS is somewhere in the middle, not expected, but not "impossible". I would like to see how they all progress and compare them. I agree the market is efficient, but it is with especially with Match Odds and Over/Under market.

To answer most of the questions, I see VALUE in backing scores in this way because:

You can get better odds by picking only a few scores for the favorite result (e.g., draw @ 3.30, but we back 0-0 and 1-1, for x4)
You have flexibility (backing the home team is limited for them to win, but as CS you can also pick a 1-1 along 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 for example)
As shown in the Heat Map, the majority of CS move around 2-3 goals range

[FTAcademy]

Comming with updates from yesterday. I had a lucky start with some profit and a 19% Yield, but this means nothing, of course.

Observations: Unfortunatelly, not all the back bets were matched before KO. Thinking to keep the bets in play and to cancel them if not matched within 5 minutes.

Tracker and screnshot with stats attached.

Let's see how it goes today...

[Win]

If all your bets had been matched, would have you won more, or ended up worse off?

[ForFolksSake]

Comming with updates from yesterday. I had a lucky start with some profit and a 19% Yield, but this means nothing, of course.

. Thinking to keep the bets in play

Tracker and screnshot with stats attached.

Let's see how it goes today...

Starting in-play would be more fun/challenging/greater potential profit which is what I thought you were doing

[ShaunWhite]

I thought these were bets but the results say trades?

[FTAcademy]

I thought these were bets but the results say trades?

Agree, bets.

[FTAcademy]

If all your bets had been matched, would have you won more, or ended up worse off?

It's a good question. I tried to check this, but it's too much time-consuming.

[FTAcademy]

Comming with updates from yesterday. I had a lucky start with some profit and a 19% Yield, but this means nothing, of course.

. Thinking to keep the bets in play

Tracker and screnshot with stats attached.

Let's see how it goes today...

Starting in-play would be more fun/challenging/greater potential profit which is what I thought you were doing

Most of the bets are now place in-play anyway, as only a few get matched before KO. I place them before and keep in-play.

[ShaunWhite]

Who's the 'we'? Given the username it sounds like you're planning a commercial proposition?

[wearthefoxhat]

Who's the 'we'? Given the username it sounds like you're planning a commercial proposition?

I wondered that too. I suppose the name FTAcademy leans that way, not sure what the forum rules are if that's the case.

My only feedback so far is, selecting the 1st 4 market ranked correct scores and a ranked 10, doesn't tackle the aspect of a value-driven strategy. Yes, the heatmap does suggest a regular return, but the market has mostly factored that in to the overall odds on offer. An average dutch return could yield 2.20+ on the winners, so the S/R, long-term, per game batch, needs to 50%+.

It would take a while to set up, but each game would need to be taken on its' merit. In many cases, the likely correct score(s) can be replaced by the ones that offer better value long-term, that would mean you would need have a nominated selection on the 5 value correct scores for each game in the .baf

[FTAcademy]

Let's see how the automation goes for a few weeks. I'm looking to give it a chance like this, but for sure is to be improved over time. Much easier to do it manually and pick what match to bet on.

I'll post updates tomorrow, but not looking too good today