Best Reverse Price

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jamesedwards
Posts: 3919
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Emtaxx wrote:
Tue Apr 29, 2025 9:32 pm
Im having a bit of a pickle atm, I started a bot when I first came here and it went really well. Since rhen I have dropped it to peruse other bots and ideas before then combining them all at a later date.

However a current situation Im working on in essence is a scalp bot, it goes well and then a price gets bought and doesn’t buy out off its position and going into the red, no matter what.

It’s a hard question to answer tbh as there’s so many things to consider and also you guys helping me will take away a potential edge from you guys right.. but any ideas on how this can be reduced ?
It could just be variance.

When you're scalping you're effectively betting at very low odds that the trade will close. Most of the time you will close the trade, for this example let's assume a £1 profit target with a £9 max loss, which with luck alone would average around 90% success rate. Unfortunately until you have traded thousands of markets you can't say with any decent certainty whether your system outperforms chance with an actual success rate closer to 91% and you're onto a winner, or underperforms and only achieves 89% and you're going to lose in the long run. And this is all before you've covered 2% commission which makes it much harder.
Emtaxx
Posts: 241
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2025 10:00 pm

Bloody hell that doesn’t seem promising … lol but yeah you’re right, I get autist with things tho, I won’t quit until I make it possible or until I find out it’s impossible (for me anyway) so it’s annoying ! Bit of a rat race on it atm
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jamesedwards
Posts: 3919
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Emtaxx wrote:
Tue Apr 29, 2025 10:18 pm
Bloody hell that doesn’t seem promising … lol but yeah you’re right, I get autist with things tho, I won’t quit until I make it possible or until I find out it’s impossible (for me anyway) so it’s annoying ! Bit of a rat race on it atm
I don't do scalping so can only speak from a position of logic and general exchange market knowledge, rather than specific experience.

But if you're picking horses by chance and applying a random scalp, then that is just chance and you will lose in the long run by commission + average spread.

You need to pick and choose certain situations and have a reason why you think the odds are in your favour at that precise moment. Perhaps the selection is steaming in and the conditions are right for it to continue? Or perhaps the 1st and 3rd fav look weak so you foresee the 2nd shortening? Perhaps you spot indictors that suggest a price has reached a plateau?

Then you need to use stake very carefully to maximise expected value. Generally speaking the greater your stake the lower your expected value. Are you staking too high and spooking the market? Are you staking too low and leaving opportunity on the table? Are you positioning your offers towards the front of queues to maximise value at the point of trade?
Emtaxx
Posts: 241
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2025 10:00 pm

Yeah I think I’m going to have to stack many indicators here it’s just a matter of building the recipe to create the cake.. won’t be easy but I do y think it’ll be too hard either just time and tears …
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jamesedwards
Posts: 3919
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Emtaxx wrote:
Tue Apr 29, 2025 10:58 pm
Yeah I think I’m going to have to stack many indicators here it’s just a matter of building the recipe to create the cake.. won’t be easy but I do y think it’ll be too hard either just time and tears …
I wouldn't want to put anybody off. But my honest view from some of your questions is perhaps you are trying to run before you can walk? I suggest you invest some good time to get a solid basic understanding of how the exchange works, followed by some very very good time to understand how Bet Angel works. And only then start playing with your recipes. It is exceptionally hard to bake a good cake and at the moment you have both hands tied behind your back..
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 10354
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Emtaxx wrote:
Tue Apr 29, 2025 10:58 pm
Yeah I think I’m going to have to stack many indicators here it’s just a matter of building the recipe to create the cake.. won’t be easy but I do y think it’ll be too hard either just time and tears …
You beat me to it James

If you stack indicators, and each presumably has parameters you can change, then the number of permutations and combinations will be insane and the chance of finding something randomly trying things is tiny.

... And I continued to say roughly what James said, start by understanding what it is you're looking at, and at least know the difference between taking and offering money. And its essential that you learn about and understand the significance of EV. Trade manually for a while.

The brutal truth is most people never make a penny, and those who do might that take a year or more to. The exchange isn't a game. It's used by bookmakers, syndicates, highly sophisticated automation and career pros. The prices are ruthlessly efficient (see EV) and because of this you're not going to just wander in and get a slice of the action. Who's going to take home less so you can have your money?

Its totally doable if you're prepared to put the hours in and approach it seriously. But if you enter the game not knowing your arse from your elbow you're going to lose your shirt.
Emtaxx
Posts: 241
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2025 10:00 pm

Not good guys :(

Can u give me some of your pie !? :)
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Tuco
Posts: 833
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:43 pm

Emtaxx, this video will explain all you need to know about trading. There is no free pie:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RvVRgNr08Y

"200,000 dollars is a lot of money. We're gonna have to earn it."
Last edited by Tuco on Wed Apr 30, 2025 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
Emtaxx
Posts: 241
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2025 10:00 pm

Tuco, whats your favourite form of Pie
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Tuco
Posts: 833
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:43 pm

Emtaxx wrote:
Wed Apr 30, 2025 10:50 am
Tuco, whats your favourite form of Pie
Golden Pie of course!
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 10354
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Emtaxx wrote:
Wed Apr 30, 2025 8:26 am
Not good guys :(
Did think you'd be the only one trying to take money from punters?
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 10354
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Emtaxx wrote:
Wed Apr 30, 2025 10:50 am
whats your favourite form of Pie

22/7, it's so much nicer than 355/113
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Trader724
Posts: 576
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Haha, brilliant Shaun! For a minute there I thought 22/7 and 355/113 were the odds on the next race! 😂
Emtaxx
Posts: 241
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2025 10:00 pm

No Shaun Im just a very Naive persons, however it’s not a bad thing, means you get yourself stuck more often and there’s only one way to get out and that’s success !
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 10354
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Trader724 wrote:
Wed Apr 30, 2025 12:18 pm
For a minute there I thought 22/7 and 355/113 were the odds on the next race! 😂
If you can't stop thinking about odds then it's about 5/2 that you've got a gambling problem. ;)
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