Long term profitability for a successful manual trader now that AI is here

[Big Bad Barney]

This is why I stick to laying/betting because I am in complete control of what I decide to lay/bet .

Ain't that the same thing as trading? just doing it once per market instead of multiple times?

Pretty sure that Elon dude reckons we're all gonna have AI doing everything for us by 2030 ...a meme I saw today said that we don't need to save for our retirement according to him... he's a smart dude right? So yeah... you won't have to lift a finger to do anything...just wait 4 years...

[Euler]

While on a short break recently, I read a load of academic papers on the use of AI on sports betting and / or Betfair and was surprised at how far off the mark they were.

Trying to solve problems that made no sense, a lack of understanding of the way the markets work, etc.

Some were quite extensive, but seemed to completely miss the mark. It seemed like they were trying to apply ML to things for the sake of it, rather than seeing what the problem was and trying to solve it.

I see this a lot, and I think Betfair trading has long suffered from 90% of advice coming from people who don't actually do it, and it now appears to be baked into LLM's as well. It's curious.

[wearthefoxhat]

While on a short break recently, I read a load of academic papers on the use of AI on sports betting and / or Betfair and was surprised at how far off the mark they were.

Trying to solve problems that made no sense, a lack of understanding of the way the markets work, etc.

Some were quite extensive, but seemed to completely miss the mark. It seemed like they were trying to apply ML to things for the sake of it, rather than seeing what the problem was and trying to solve it.

I see this a lot, and I think Betfair trading has long suffered from 90% of advice coming from people who don't actually do it, and it now appears to be baked into LLM's as well. It's curious.

+1

Makes sense, as the LLM train, is trained on the stuff us humans shovel into the A.I. stove. Of course it does depend on what's been shovelled...

LLM Express.png

[Sonny]

While on a short break recently, I read a load of academic papers on the use of AI on sports betting and / or Betfair and was surprised at how far off the mark they were.

Trying to solve problems that made no sense, a lack of understanding of the way the markets work, etc.

Some were quite extensive, but seemed to completely miss the mark. It seemed like they were trying to apply ML to things for the sake of it, rather than seeing what the problem was and trying to solve it.

I see this a lot, and I think Betfair trading has long suffered from 90% of advice coming from people who don't actually do it, and it now appears to be baked into LLM's as well. It's curious.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.06021

Some get at least the basics right.