Someone has dumped 150k on Zain Shamadal in the 4:35 Newm
been there a few mins too @ 1.63
Big backer
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rubysglory
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I agree with you Euler. If however it was a decoy, to which we did not (do not) know the real purpose, would that not make it a good strategy ?Euler wrote:Any strategy that shows your hand isn't a very effective one in my books.
rg
doubt it, in line with Euler's 'showing your hand' a big money backer looks to get on, subtly at good prices, often across multiple sites/accounts. Not 'take all at 1.63' -rubysglory wrote:I agree with you Euler. If however it was a decoy, to which we did not (do not) know the real purpose, would that not make it a good strategy ?Euler wrote:Any strategy that shows your hand isn't a very effective one in my books.
rg
Reckon if would give away too much 'value'
So do you think this person's a layer, using reverse psychology?
Jeff
Jeff
lewismbet wrote: doubt it, in line with Euler's 'showing your hand' a big money backer looks to get on, subtly at good prices, often across multiple sites/accounts. Not 'take all at 1.63' -
Reckon if would give away too much 'value'
LeTiss,
Please define 'distorting the market'! The market is the market. Your post suggests benevolence on behalf of the trader posting such a large sum.
Exchanges are peer to peer, and as such, are open to the informed as well as the mis-informed trader.
To draw a parallell...What is the difference between a trader that posts 10k+ at 1 price, to a trader that posts 1k * 10? The 1K trader has a micro-distortion on the market; repeated many times over. Do they "distort the market"?
Beanstalk
Please define 'distorting the market'! The market is the market. Your post suggests benevolence on behalf of the trader posting such a large sum.
Exchanges are peer to peer, and as such, are open to the informed as well as the mis-informed trader.
To draw a parallell...What is the difference between a trader that posts 10k+ at 1 price, to a trader that posts 1k * 10? The 1K trader has a micro-distortion on the market; repeated many times over. Do they "distort the market"?
Beanstalk
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rubysglory
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- Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:02 am
[/quote]Ferru123 wrote:So do you think this person's a layer, using reverse psychology?
Jeff
Yes Jeff. Instinct tells me that this person is more likely to be a layer of the 'big bet horse' offset by quite likely being a negative overround player across various markets.
rg
rg
From what I saw on the race where he dropped in 150k yesterday I think he is using the 150k as an iceburg, and laying just under the price. When he takes the big sum out the market panics and bounces 4 or 5 ticks.
Iceburg at 1.63 - lays at 1.62 (maybe gets 7 or 8 k matched) then the market overreacts to his money leaving the market (the old "he knows something" routine) it jumps to 1.67 before settling back at it's natural place of 1.63/1.64. He gets 5 ticks x 7k as nice little 200 quid.
saying that a 93k investment for £200 seems a poor ROI.
It's fun trying to work it out though.
Iceburg at 1.63 - lays at 1.62 (maybe gets 7 or 8 k matched) then the market overreacts to his money leaving the market (the old "he knows something" routine) it jumps to 1.67 before settling back at it's natural place of 1.63/1.64. He gets 5 ticks x 7k as nice little 200 quid.
saying that a 93k investment for £200 seems a poor ROI.
It's fun trying to work it out though.
It's also a bit risky - one of these days, a Premiership footballer will turn up and think 'I'm having some of that!', and the guy will have to hope and pray that the horse wins! 
Jeff
Jeff
mugsgame wrote:He gets 5 ticks x 7k as nice little 200 quid.
saying that a 93k investment for £200 seems a poor ROI.
'Is he a layer using reverse psychology?'
Not really sure, and I don't like to speculate but what we know is that it is deliberate, it is patient, if it is 'punting' we would like to know profits of bets however we do not know where else the same person is betting/laying, Regardless of backing/trading it is getting a relatively low return on money used.
I highly doubt it is just someone rich 'playing around' from the factors above. I still don't know exactly how cross matching works but would anyone like to suggest how limiting one price from moving up could allow them to make an over-round in the market somewhere else? [when playing on outsiders]
On favs could just be someone trying to add uncertainty and short-term 'panic' into the market by offering/withdrawing money and profiting on volatility before it returns to mean.
Not really sure, and I don't like to speculate but what we know is that it is deliberate, it is patient, if it is 'punting' we would like to know profits of bets however we do not know where else the same person is betting/laying, Regardless of backing/trading it is getting a relatively low return on money used.
I highly doubt it is just someone rich 'playing around' from the factors above. I still don't know exactly how cross matching works but would anyone like to suggest how limiting one price from moving up could allow them to make an over-round in the market somewhere else? [when playing on outsiders]
On favs could just be someone trying to add uncertainty and short-term 'panic' into the market by offering/withdrawing money and profiting on volatility before it returns to mean.
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spreadbetting
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And he was bringing that in this time too