I archive every race and correlate them, but I tend to analyse them in arrears.
The odd thing about this week and days like today is that, using spreadsheets, I can run different strategies that are negatively correlated but it's quite alarming when they all lose. It really shouldn't be possible. If one is up another should be down and vice versa.
My imagination?
-
RideTheLightning
- Posts: 136
- Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2009 1:08 am
I had a decent day yesterday but so far today have struggled, down at the moment.
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well I did a similar thing to Peter and ran a few simple strategies with small stakes just to test the markets. Generally you get a feel for what is working....sadly nothing seem to work conclusively. Yes of course some things did work but then suddenly it would stop and you'd have to try something else.
My 2 pennies worth. I have held the belief for some time that Betfair are playing poacher and gamekeeper and the new XM is their way of kicking out traders. They can see "live" money entering the market before any of us and simply use that to their advantage. I have been checking how orders are matched and quite simply it doesn't add up. I get ~£370 of a £400 order filled with the remaining £30 just sat there untouched. It continues to trade at that price and the amount traded is increasing without my £30 being matched. It does happen with larger amounts left to match but these small amounts are so obvious it is scary. I can therefore only assume that Betfair are pushing money to the front of the queue using their XM system. This just increases your potential risk so much that it makes it worrying when you have large sums in the market.
I have scaled right back until I get a better understanding of what is happening. I know Andy had a great day yesterday and more power to his elbow. Sadly he is the only person I know who is doing well at the moment so I want some of what he is drinking
My 2 pennies worth. I have held the belief for some time that Betfair are playing poacher and gamekeeper and the new XM is their way of kicking out traders. They can see "live" money entering the market before any of us and simply use that to their advantage. I have been checking how orders are matched and quite simply it doesn't add up. I get ~£370 of a £400 order filled with the remaining £30 just sat there untouched. It continues to trade at that price and the amount traded is increasing without my £30 being matched. It does happen with larger amounts left to match but these small amounts are so obvious it is scary. I can therefore only assume that Betfair are pushing money to the front of the queue using their XM system. This just increases your potential risk so much that it makes it worrying when you have large sums in the market.
I have scaled right back until I get a better understanding of what is happening. I know Andy had a great day yesterday and more power to his elbow. Sadly he is the only person I know who is doing well at the moment so I want some of what he is drinking
JollyGreen wrote:Well I did a similar thing to Peter and ran a few simple strategies with small stakes just to test the markets. Generally you get a feel for what is working....sadly nothing seem to work conclusively. Yes of course some things did work but then suddenly it would stop and you'd have to try something else.
My 2 pennies worth. I have held the belief for some time that Betfair are playing poacher and gamekeeper and the new XM is their way of kicking out traders. They can see "live" money entering the market before any of us and simply use that to their advantage. I have been checking how orders are matched and quite simply it doesn't add up. I get ~£370 of a £400 order filled with the remaining £30 just sat there untouched. It continues to trade at that price and the amount traded is increasing without my £30 being matched. It does happen with larger amounts left to match but these small amounts are so obvious it is scary. I can therefore only assume that Betfair are pushing money to the front of the queue using their XM system. This just increases your potential risk so much that it makes it worrying when you have large sums in the market.
I have scaled right back until I get a better understanding of what is happening. I know Andy had a great day yesterday and more power to his elbow. Sadly he is the only person I know who is doing well at the moment so I want some of what he is drinking
Yep, i agree ive been thinking this for a while now
There's no doubt in my mind that betfair are already trading their own markets and have been doing so for some time, long before the XM. They know who the bookies and big stakers are and just jump infront of them. They know who the traders are and just press against our orders everytime we have a large libaility that doesn't tally with how they want the market to go.
-
RideTheLightning
- Posts: 136
- Joined: Fri Jul 03, 2009 1:08 am
Having a mare today. It is very significant that Euler mentioned that opposing strategies are losing. Over £100 down, my worst day for a while.
Could be, but surely you'd expect there to be far more uncertainty in a Class 6 race than in the high quality races we've had today, where the form of the runners is easier to gauge.
Jeff
Jeff
jimrobo wrote:it could just be general uncertainty in the market.
-
JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well I have found the better class races not behaving like they normally do. I found some of today's Group races were more like mediocre cards from Leicester.
This evening I decided to test the markets by placing small amounts on 5 prices just above and below the main prices. I found that there didn't appear to be real money in the market and the prices would move but my little £30 would sit there above the price amongst £300 with £000s on the opposite side of the book supposedly going to push the price up. The money was never matched, not a single penny it just held its current price which was uncanny!?
This evening I decided to test the markets by placing small amounts on 5 prices just above and below the main prices. I found that there didn't appear to be real money in the market and the prices would move but my little £30 would sit there above the price amongst £300 with £000s on the opposite side of the book supposedly going to push the price up. The money was never matched, not a single penny it just held its current price which was uncanny!?
True, there's still money to be made whatever the weather. Might revert back to 'normal' or might need some adaption.jimrobo wrote:it could just be general uncertainty in the market.
Maybe 'the powers that be' know you're a shrewdie JollyG and are afraid of taking any of your bets
