True price

[payuppal]

Higher or lower is a matter of semantics.

It has crucial implications. It means that, over the long term, and on average, a backer MUST obtain better than Betfair odds at the off and a layer MUST obtain less than Betfair odds at the off in order to be successful.

This is what is incorrect.

The set of horses starting at Betfair odds of x contains horses with chances either side of that average.

Identifying those horses, or some of them, and backing or laying them, means it is perfectly possible to win at Betfair odds.

One does not need to beat them.

Unless the post is a simple tautology.

[psycho040253]

Payuppal

I think that we are saying the same thing - just in different ways.

Psycho:evil:

[dav3214]

I have to put my 2c in here as this is something that has been pre-occupying me. Lets imagine you didn't know the form/breeding/etc etc - the horses were all blind to the bettor. A 10 horse race had the horses all priced at 10. The market would still be efficient. So we move from that point to what we actually have only through information. The inefficiencies if they exist are in the processing of information ie finding things that a large number of people believe that are not correct.