Why are in-play football markets no good for trading?

[Iron]

Mister Man -

You've told us what you don't like to bet on. What do you like to bet on, out of interest?

Jeff

[enzabella2009]

I apologize if I comment between your discussion. I wanted to point out that most wealthy traders and the most consistent are coming from football. There are some traders in England who earn 200 thousand per quarter. There are traders in Italy that are maintained on the same ammount and there are some across europe ( 2 that I know) who earn 50 thousand to 100 thousand a week. I going to show you a picture that I have already shown here before, I received permission to publish it. I have others but I have not been authorized. This is a combination of preoff trading and in play trading . I leave it to you to judge.
It`s around £20,000 @ the current exchange.

proves nothing. he'll have plenty of massive losses too. in-play football trading seems to be very low margin and very high risk (because a goal changes everything). i know some people will be able to make consistent profits through in-play football, but on the whole i think the markets (because of football's scoring system) are poor compared to others for trading.

How can you state he`ll have plenty of massive losses? believe or not this guy is a consistent winner. I am sure some people here know who the guy is but that`s no important to answear your questions.
I am a football trader my self.
After a careful analysis of the various markets on a single football match is possible to find opportunities with some consistency. We are talking of 8-9 ticks preoff when the market has not yet reconized the potential outcome . When the market is already fairly balanced several hours prior the game is only a matter of taking an early positions for 1-2 ticks profit. For my part I use all my possibilities to find informations about that specific game and with the help of google translator I can also read information directly from the source of each team I decided to trade whatever they coming from.

[CaerMyrddin]

Hi Frank, I'm sorry, but I can't agree with you.

I trade mainly the nags, but my biggest greens always come from football. It's a very competitive market, but due to the huge liquidity, you'll do well with a small edge.

Enzabella is pretty right on this one, some of the biggest sharks do massively well on football.

[superfrank]

@enzabella2009

the topic is really about in-play football markets (i've updated the title).

i'm sure there is good trading value to be had for those who are willing to do the work prior to the pre-match markets settling down.

[mister man]

Mister Man -

You've told us what you don't like to bet on. What do you like to bet on, out of interest?

Jeff

Jeff get your glasses on matey
myprevious post was reasonably clear to anyone who can see and read, Surely (shirley)

"i will bet on facts, its 1-0 its a corner etc, but i wont bet on arbitary officials opinions of whats happened.
Nor do i want to bet on markets that are corruptable such as number of injuries etc, many markets you could have would be highly suseptible to fixing.

[Iron]

Mister Man

OK, so you're watching a game and a corner is about to be taken or has just been taken. What do you do to obtain an edge?

Jeff

[mister man]

i always shout BOOOOOOOOO..

if that doesnt work,i rely on my in depth stastistical anlysis of the game, and all its variables, place my bets and have a plan as to when, why and how i will trade out of those bets/lays in the game. Bet angel comes in very handy at this point.i think some people call it a system

my trading stats show this "system" to be a slightly better edge than "booooooooo" but not by much, but its an edge.

happy gambling to all.

[PeterLe]

Hi Superfrank

I'm with you on this one. The football market is one that I have never really cracked. I did well in the world cup with a technique, which still works well today. It involves placing a number of bet pre off and greening that market up before the kick off, followed by a few trades in play.

The bit I was uneasy about was the pre off bets left massive liabilities, which wasn't a problem as I always greened up before kick off. However, it always left me with a feeling of "What would happen if betfair crashed and I couldn't green up"...I dropped the idea eventually as the 'risk' wasn't worth it.

Some people def have an edge; look at Physcoff (£1m Challenge), there was a video of him logging into his betfair account recently and I think he was making £40 k ish a month (?, might have been more).
Peter is right in that the market(s) are tightly linked (most combinations), I've tried linking them via diff spreadsheets and although there are often arb type opportunities, i 'just' seem to miss out with the 5 sec delay..

I would love to crack this market as I enjoy watching the game and the amount of liquidity makes it very viable.

Regards
Peter

[Euler]

The problem with a lot of in-play markets is there so much money is being lost to the fast picture merchants, huuuuuuuuuge amounts. I am sure this is why the PC was introduced TBH. These people have nowhere to go for the same level of liquidity and are reliant on BF for their profits.

[Iron]

Not sure I follow. Do you mean that they don't take into account that you can bet on specific scorelines, over x goals, etc?

Jeff

Where people get fooled on football is they assume there is only a 100% chance of a win, away win or a draw. Tipsters and ebook sellers have built business on this mis-interpretation.

[mister man]

The problem with a lot of in-play markets is there so much money is being lost to the fast picture merchants, huuuuuuuuuge amounts. I am sure this is why the PC was introduced TBH. These people have nowhere to go for the same level of liquidity and are reliant on BF for their profits.

i completely agree, sickeningly, in this case the cheats do prosper.

[Dabbla]

Peter beat me to the post.
In play football markets are still the best markets to profit from imo.
But over the last year, 18months the markets have got harder to trade.
The fast pic players seem to be creaming more out of the markets than ever.
It’s got to the point where there as good as beating the delay.
One minute there are thousands in the market the next its peanuts.
I would be interested to know if these screen shots of E25,000 are from fast pictures or good old fashion trading?.
I think it maybe time to start looking for a dish.

[superfrank]

so if big money traders with fast pics are making fortunes, Betfair are making loads in commission, and punters are doing a bit less than breaking even excluding commission, who is else losing?

wannabe traders without fast pics.

[PeterLe]

Peter beat me to the post.
In play football markets are still the best markets to profit from imo.
But over the last year, 18months the markets have got harder to trade.
The fast pic players seem to be creaming more out of the markets than ever.
It’s got to the point where there as good as beating the delay.
One minute there are thousands in the market the next its peanuts.
I would be interested to know if these screen shots of E25,000 are from fast pictures or good old fashion trading?.
I think it maybe time to start looking for a dish.

Surely even if you are courtsiding, the 5 sec delay can't be beaten can it?? (or can it??)
Even live radio is only fractionally behind the live event (but not possible to beat the delay this way either)?

[Iron]

Surely even if you are courtsiding, the 5 sec delay can't be beaten can it?? (or can it??)

I imagine it can if you're Betfair or one of the people/organisations they're in bed with!

Jeff