Here is a video showing contrarian trading: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtiQ9QR9drs
Jeff
See-saws , swings and roundabouts !
I think that's a great video Jeff, it's refreshing to see someone losing money and showing their mistakes rather than others that just make it look like you click a few buttons and make millions.
Think that's the problem with some newcomers, they think it's easy and you win everytime
Think that's the problem with some newcomers, they think it's easy and you win everytime
By the way great video by Jim demonstrating his mistakes. I'm not half the trader he is, so my comments aren't criticism but merely a comparison with my current trading style (which is terribly terrible).
I saw three things distinctly wrong with the trade:
First:
Jim let the trade run down from 2.5 to 1.85 -- Holy Cow ! that's 41 ticks. Last time I done that I had a mental breakdown. I can't digest that feeling.
My method:
When attempting to catch a swing trade, personally I don't have the tolerance to let the loss run for more than 3 to 5 ticks. If it doesn't go as intended I cut out at 3 to 5 ticks red and try again. Some trades I usually end up having 3 or so failed attempts and (roughly 15 ticks down), which is Very Very frustrating but I save myself a mental collapse but forcing myself to cut out frequently. I don't it it's a very sensible thing to do as I end up with more frequent loses that begin to pile up at the end of the day. On the other hand if it goes as anticipated (which happens once in a blue moon) I let it run forever.
Second:
The other thing that Jim did was double/tipple up with Lay bets at around 1.89 (using £1500). A gambler's mindset perhaps?
My method:
I have none. I've been guilty (and still am) of chasing bad trades with multiple stake levels and every time I do that it only bites harder.
Third:
Jim was sort of guessing about support and resistance levels, and he admits it later in the video as well. No doubt there's usually some level of guessing involved with Technical Analysis.
My method:
I just plain hate the feeling of guessing outright.
When I use Technical Analysis for identifying (still slightly guessing) direction I usually follow it up with a 3 to 5 ticks stop loss. If I have to completely guess direction without any form of Technical Analysis then I use excel randbetween(0,1).
I saw three things distinctly wrong with the trade:
First:
Jim let the trade run down from 2.5 to 1.85 -- Holy Cow ! that's 41 ticks. Last time I done that I had a mental breakdown. I can't digest that feeling.
My method:
When attempting to catch a swing trade, personally I don't have the tolerance to let the loss run for more than 3 to 5 ticks. If it doesn't go as intended I cut out at 3 to 5 ticks red and try again. Some trades I usually end up having 3 or so failed attempts and (roughly 15 ticks down), which is Very Very frustrating but I save myself a mental collapse but forcing myself to cut out frequently. I don't it it's a very sensible thing to do as I end up with more frequent loses that begin to pile up at the end of the day. On the other hand if it goes as anticipated (which happens once in a blue moon) I let it run forever.
Second:
The other thing that Jim did was double/tipple up with Lay bets at around 1.89 (using £1500). A gambler's mindset perhaps?
My method:
I have none. I've been guilty (and still am) of chasing bad trades with multiple stake levels and every time I do that it only bites harder.
Third:
Jim was sort of guessing about support and resistance levels, and he admits it later in the video as well. No doubt there's usually some level of guessing involved with Technical Analysis.
My method:
I just plain hate the feeling of guessing outright.
When I use Technical Analysis for identifying (still slightly guessing) direction I usually follow it up with a 3 to 5 ticks stop loss. If I have to completely guess direction without any form of Technical Analysis then I use excel randbetween(0,1).
Hi , this thread is becoming really interesting and thanks for contributing.
If i may:-
James1st - that is a good explanation/counter point to the contrarian trade. I always thought it to be the more obvious ie if you see arket coming down - lay it ! I now have a better understanding - wait for a drift/steam to run it`s course , stop for breadth and evaluate if its coming back - get your trade in BEFORE it hits the price so you are potentially early in the queue ? Thanks.
Euler - if you want newbie questions , i`m happy to give you plenty , as well as Video ideas for the masses. These don`t have to mirror your individual style - more down the road of " look what happens if.... " " don`t do this because " " Short priced fav tend to.... "
A lot of answers to questions are seldom expanded on by the adding of the word " because " - often statements are made and the reader is none the wiser.
The other point is i`m certain we would like to see perhaps a FULL hour of trading for example with no " out takes "- to show regular profits, even if only to say £10 trades , not just the odd winning trades.
I tend to think that trading is so fluid and we all enter at different points eg 10 mins out , 5 mins out , fav only , or whatever , video " evidence " would and could not really be copied so to me there is nothing lost by the Betangel Team giving a few more updated films to study.
After all we hear regularly enough how all this data is stored and analysed so it`s not a great leap to upload it for viewing or am i being naive ?
Anyway , thanks to all so far and i hope we get more responses.
If i may:-
James1st - that is a good explanation/counter point to the contrarian trade. I always thought it to be the more obvious ie if you see arket coming down - lay it ! I now have a better understanding - wait for a drift/steam to run it`s course , stop for breadth and evaluate if its coming back - get your trade in BEFORE it hits the price so you are potentially early in the queue ? Thanks.
Euler - if you want newbie questions , i`m happy to give you plenty , as well as Video ideas for the masses. These don`t have to mirror your individual style - more down the road of " look what happens if.... " " don`t do this because " " Short priced fav tend to.... "
A lot of answers to questions are seldom expanded on by the adding of the word " because " - often statements are made and the reader is none the wiser.
The other point is i`m certain we would like to see perhaps a FULL hour of trading for example with no " out takes "- to show regular profits, even if only to say £10 trades , not just the odd winning trades.
I tend to think that trading is so fluid and we all enter at different points eg 10 mins out , 5 mins out , fav only , or whatever , video " evidence " would and could not really be copied so to me there is nothing lost by the Betangel Team giving a few more updated films to study.
After all we hear regularly enough how all this data is stored and analysed so it`s not a great leap to upload it for viewing or am i being naive ?
Anyway , thanks to all so far and i hope we get more responses.
As can anyone make a 17min video, talk drivel and win £22.LeTiss 4pm wrote:In all fairness to Jim Makos, anybody can make a 17min video, talk drivel and lose £22
there lies the problem, newcomers don't know who to believe and whose advice to take.
but there's no point pretending it's all sunshine and rainbows as most video's do though
.He had a few good trades and a few bad ones sounds about right to me
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Dublin_Flyer
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Nice idea by JOIZZY, using 10£/€/$ trades sounds like matchable money in most markets if trading in the top 2 or 3, assuming stakes like this get matched in the real market then would someone doing it in a practice mode market be somewhat relative?
I'm not offering by any means, I'm a pure dutcher! Stats and maths pay my bills! I followed a thread on an Irish forum from a group of people that were trading shares in an oil exploration company that appeared to be close to getting a positive result from an oil field, most bought in around the 1.6p mark, some got out at 4.5p, many stuck at 0.045p now after it wasn't a profitable well. That's pence, not pounds, and they had thousands in it!
I'll try and get into trading horses some day, but not until I can get a confident grip on reading markets and potential movements/drifts to a profitable extent, same as trading any entity, only faster!
I'm not offering by any means, I'm a pure dutcher! Stats and maths pay my bills! I followed a thread on an Irish forum from a group of people that were trading shares in an oil exploration company that appeared to be close to getting a positive result from an oil field, most bought in around the 1.6p mark, some got out at 4.5p, many stuck at 0.045p now after it wasn't a profitable well. That's pence, not pounds, and they had thousands in it!
I'll try and get into trading horses some day, but not until I can get a confident grip on reading markets and potential movements/drifts to a profitable extent, same as trading any entity, only faster!
Don't remember him doing that but maybe i need to watch it again, he stoped his bad trades out afterswitesh wrote:
First:
Jim let the trade run down from 2.5 to 1.85 -- Holy Cow ! that's 41 ticks. Last time I done that I had a mental breakdown. I can't digest that feeling.
about 10 ticks i think ?
sometimes it helps you to get a feel of a market if you take some small positions at first, also i think most people would double their stakes when the odds reached 2.00.switesh wrote:
Second:
The other thing that Jim did was double/tipple up with Lay bets at around 1.89 (using £1500). A gambler's mindset perhaps?
Yes we all make Educated guesses,switesh wrote:
Third:
Jim was sort of guessing about support and resistance levels, and he admits it later in the video as well. No doubt there's usually some level of guessing involved with Technical Analysis.
think that's all there is to it .
Apologies if I am wrong with some of the things I have said, it was hard to understand his accent on my crappy Pc speakers
, i will watch again if i ever get a spare 17 mins I just watched Jims video.....I think we all know that pain when the trade goes against you....What Im learning everyday is to ask myself the following questions...
What do I do when it goes against me?... what plan do I have to get out?... how many ticks of heat am I going to take?..
so, if the trend slows to a small range and I enter a counter trade and I get in and put in, say a 6 tick stop.... then I have to ask myself, do I think its possible to make 6 ticks or more from this trade. Or can I make 3 ticks....
If I can only make 3 then what is the percentage chance of me doing this to make a long term profit?....
..but I'm still learning.
I see a lot of videos on making money but not on preserving money..... but saying that he's brave putting that up
What do I do when it goes against me?... what plan do I have to get out?... how many ticks of heat am I going to take?..
so, if the trend slows to a small range and I enter a counter trade and I get in and put in, say a 6 tick stop.... then I have to ask myself, do I think its possible to make 6 ticks or more from this trade. Or can I make 3 ticks....
If I can only make 3 then what is the percentage chance of me doing this to make a long term profit?....
..but I'm still learning.
I see a lot of videos on making money but not on preserving money..... but saying that he's brave putting that up
Hi all,
I'v uploaded a video of my 2 miserable trades today here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQCjoL7t ... ture=g-upl
I'm trading in practise mode, but belive me the loses feel just as they were real. The pain isn't any less.
Please excuse the commentary audio. I don't have access to live pictures in Australia so I listen to timeform commentary.
Kindly appreciate your feedback and critisisms. I have about another 100 such videos of failed attempts. I just can't get it.
Regards,
Switesh
I'v uploaded a video of my 2 miserable trades today here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQCjoL7t ... ture=g-upl
I'm trading in practise mode, but belive me the loses feel just as they were real. The pain isn't any less.
Please excuse the commentary audio. I don't have access to live pictures in Australia so I listen to timeform commentary.
Kindly appreciate your feedback and critisisms. I have about another 100 such videos of failed attempts. I just can't get it.
Regards,
Switesh
Couple of thoughts:
A. You appear to lack a well thought through strategy, preferring to go with your gut. Before you enter the market, you should know under what circumstances you will enter and exit your trades.
B. You don't seem to be using the principle of cutting your losses and letting your profits run.
C. You seem to be concerned about whether you can predict the market. Why? Why not just respond to it and take however much or little it gives you?
BTW, I'd say that the reversal pattern in terms of WOM that you're looking for with counter-trend trading can be seen at 6:43.
I hope this helps.
Jeff
A. You appear to lack a well thought through strategy, preferring to go with your gut. Before you enter the market, you should know under what circumstances you will enter and exit your trades.
B. You don't seem to be using the principle of cutting your losses and letting your profits run.
C. You seem to be concerned about whether you can predict the market. Why? Why not just respond to it and take however much or little it gives you?
BTW, I'd say that the reversal pattern in terms of WOM that you're looking for with counter-trend trading can be seen at 6:43.
I hope this helps.
Jeff
Accept you are going to be wrong on a regular basis.
Two ultra sensibles quotes and guidelines.You don't seem to be using the principle of cutting your losses and letting your profits run.
It dosent matter how you measure it you are going to place losing trades and plenty of them. If when you turn on the computer you know this and its registered in your brain as a natural occurrence that you dont need to worry about, then your trading becomes more "natural"
Plenty of natural occurrences happen in our lives, traffic jams, bad weather, politicians not telling the truth, football managers complaining about decisions, we have learnt to accept that these occurrences will be a regular part of our lives.
If when trading you accept that every trade is not going to reap a profit. Why dont you go for a trade success rate of 50%, if you hit that you will see yourself as a winning trader and then not worry about the losing trades.
The level stake profit that bettors use is a good tool. L,L,L,L,L,L,L,16/1,L,L. One winning bet out of 9 gives them a profit. If one ultra successfull trade reaps a big benefit and a big profit why care about all the losing ones. Just minimise those losing amounts and maximise the winning trades.
The market is never always going to react in the way you think, partly because of strategys that others use!(contrarian, greening up, taking profits, bots etc,)
I thinkn it's fairly clear where Jim's trade went wrong but I'm suprised nobody has really talked about it. I wouldn't have gone counter trend on that trade because it was clearly being backed in, you can see it splattered all over the market. It wasn't particulary sensible to oppose it.
On switesh's first trade it was right to try and get in near the bottom, but the second favourite isn't putting any real presssure on the favourite. Dipping in and cutting out when it didn't work was right. It is forming a based around 2.50 so I'd be tempted to try and get in around that level. So the only fault I'd say is that you didn't get in low enough and I may have been tempted only to cut when it went below that level.
At 4m50s you can see the money backing it in and that looks like it just wasn't going to happen at that point. When it breaks lower there just isn't any further point in opposing it.
Second video
Nice potential entry point but you need some evidence that it is going to rebound. A few hints that it may and there was a small move. I don't see anything spectacular wrong with this trade. Roughly right entry point.
A general comment on your general style is that you are a little jumpy. The market will often push five or six ticks against you on a regular basis so you are cutting out inside the general level of short term volatility too often. If you let it run a little you will probably find your strike rate will go up.
I would probably have made a small loss on the first but a profit on the second.
On switesh's first trade it was right to try and get in near the bottom, but the second favourite isn't putting any real presssure on the favourite. Dipping in and cutting out when it didn't work was right. It is forming a based around 2.50 so I'd be tempted to try and get in around that level. So the only fault I'd say is that you didn't get in low enough and I may have been tempted only to cut when it went below that level.
At 4m50s you can see the money backing it in and that looks like it just wasn't going to happen at that point. When it breaks lower there just isn't any further point in opposing it.
Second video
Nice potential entry point but you need some evidence that it is going to rebound. A few hints that it may and there was a small move. I don't see anything spectacular wrong with this trade. Roughly right entry point.
A general comment on your general style is that you are a little jumpy. The market will often push five or six ticks against you on a regular basis so you are cutting out inside the general level of short term volatility too often. If you let it run a little you will probably find your strike rate will go up.
I would probably have made a small loss on the first but a profit on the second.