FA CUP 2013/14

[Iron]

No.

I don't bet on what might happen in a football match. I'm not saying it can't be profitable - I just don't know of any approaches with a long term statistical edge.

Plus, if I were to effectively bet on City to score, I'd be cheering if they did, which would be a strange feeling!

Jeff

Good call! Wish I had put more on now! Did you get some Jeff?

[Euler]

My pref was for backing the draw

[Euler]

Kerrrrrrrrching

Jeff, Never let you emotion get in the way of a good trade.

[Consty1]

These situations are so difficult to analyse from a statistical point of view though? It's such a unique spot.

[Euler]

You think so?

[Iron]

Yes, but if you're not pretty confident that you have a long-term edge, you're gambling, and it's best to sit on the sidelines until an opportunity arises where you're on safe and familiar territory.

'If in doubt, stay out' is a good motto to live by.

Jeff

These situations are so difficult to analyse from a statistical point of view though? It's such a unique spot.

[Consty1]

I don't know hence the question mark.

I do a lot of statistical analysis on league fixtures but cup stuff between different standards of teams would throw me a bit.

Saying that I couldn't resist getting on at 1-2.

[Euler]

'If in doubt, stay out' is a good motto to live by.

Did you doubt that Man City who have been scoring an average of 3.82 at home this season in the premier league wouldn't score against Watford with 60 minutes of the match left?

[Iron]

I would hazard that finding a statistical edge that's good enough to beat Betfair's ultra-efficient football markets isn't easy unless you're very good with stats and have a lot of data to crunch.

Jeff

[Iron]

I take the view that it's theoretically impossible to profit long-term from trading unless you're exploiting a market inefficiency. If, for argument's sake, the 'match odds' market odds were correct, then I would not have been trading with an edge had I entered into the market.

I have no way of determining when there is an edge in live football markets, so I don't trade them.

Jeff

Did you doubt that Man City who have been scoring an average of 3.82 at home this season in the premier league wouldn't score against Watford with 60 minutes of the match left?

[Consty1]

'If in doubt, stay out' is a good motto to live by.

Did you doubt that Man City who have been scoring an average of 3.82 at home this season in the premier league wouldn't score against Watford with 60 minutes of the match left?

I guess many were confident City would score, the issue for myself at least would be do they score enough of the time to be profitable long term by either trading out after they score, reducing liability if they score, or greening up after a 2nd goal.

[Consty1]

'If in doubt, stay out' is a good motto to live by.

Did you doubt that Man City who have been scoring an average of 3.82 at home this season in the premier league wouldn't score against Watford with 60 minutes of the match left?

I guess many were confident City would score, the issue for myself at least would be do they score enough of the time to be profitable long term by either trading out after they score, reducing liability if they score, or greening up after a 2nd goal

[Iron]

I agree.

I'm not quite sure what market error the many 'lay the draw' type systems out there are exploiting. I'm not saying they don't have an edge - merely that I don't know what it is or if it holds long term.

Jeff

I guess many were confident City would score, the issue for myself at least would be do they score enough of the time to be profitable long term by either trading out after they score, reducing liability if they score, or greening up after a 2nd goal.

[Consty1]

For me it's about putting stats into context which is something I personally couldn't do with that Man City game.

[PeterLe]

I don't think you should have thought to much about stats etc on this opportunity
on that particular trade, I scalped (city) three times and at that point (with no liability) I had 60% of my stake green on city.
I then put a fourth trade in (again on city) and left a lay trade three ticks below. I switched back to the racing and at that point city scored. when I switched back to the foot ball my lay trade had been cancelled when the market was suspended.
I then greened up for 120% of my stake, with very little risk.
my thinking was that all I needed was the next goal to be by city and on average I would expect City to be more likely to score that Watford.