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mctash
Posts: 101
Joined: Wed May 12, 2010 2:11 pm

No flaming required :D

I would say that to create such a "super bot" would almost certainly require the kind of market knowledge that would make you competent at trading manually anyway.

Also, anyone who makes are really successful bot is very unlikely to give it away/sell it.

Therefore I don't think there is any getting around learning the basics.

The only difference with neural nets in particular is the skill comes in the design of the net and the selection of training data you give it. Why it works is of less consequence.

I would add that a bot is also a TOOL and like any tool results will vary depending on how people use/set it up.

Many people do automate trading as we see evidence of them everyday on the horse markets.

Now factor in the time,effort and money it took that person to:

a.)Learn to program to a sufficient level(try a few years)

b.)Learn to spot profitable market patterns and triggers, then convert them into machine identifiable form

c.)Test and finance the bot throughout it calibration period.

d.)Adjust its behaviour over the longer term as markets change.

Its clearly no small undertaking to do all this. Hats off to anyone who has and been successful.

What's the pay-off for this additional effort? Well besides the profit, they have served their time in front of the monitor every day in creating and commissioning the thing. It will require much less day to day interaction than manually trading. You could even make a smart phone app to login and check its performance/adjust parameters during the day when your out and about possibly in employment or just enjoying yourself instead of being glued to at the adverts.

Tash
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to75ne
Posts: 2439
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

ive been trading for yonks.the markets change over time, sometimes dramatically. what worked six months/year ago may not be quite as useful today, next week. i think these bots can only have a short lifespan, as the markets evolve, the effectiveness of the bots decrease and then die. then its back to the drawing board. as for neural networks how do you collect the training data sets? bearing in mind subtle cahnges are taking place every day.
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marqasa
Posts: 33
Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:32 pm

@mugsgame I'm not saying that it would necessarily be a good thing. Nor am I saying that it is needed. Just exploring various possibilities in my mind!
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mctash
Posts: 101
Joined: Wed May 12, 2010 2:11 pm

If you can make program an artificial neural net then collecting the data is childs play by comparison. Just harvest it using the Betfair api.

A bigger challenge is working out which is the right data to train it with. The more complex the task you set a net, the longer the training takes. Different training sets produce different levels of error. I'm no expert on them to be sure. I have only read up on the basics. I also suspect if they are used in the financial sector then something must work with them. Type "neural nets finance" into google and you can see they are being applied in all kinds of ways.

Also neural nets have applications for manual traders. Imagine trading with a predictive chart open that is not based on some advanced mathematical formula but one of pattern recognition derived from the system our brain uses (albeit a hugely simplistic derivation).

As for markets changing over time, then yes, you would have to either reimplement your strategies (something you do as a manual trader also) every so often, or as in the case of a neural net bot, retrain it with more current data.

The actual implementation of strategies in a bot is a relatively small amount of code compared to the engine behind it so it's not a case of back to the drawing board. A properly designed engine should allow for "plug and play" strategies that can be updated or replaced without any further modification to the engine. There is source code for an example bot on the BetFair Developers website if you want to see the internals of a basic one.

Tash
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