Market Mispricing & Value bets

[Zenyatta]

at what prices to do look to back or lay?

I would be very wary of backing something below $1.85 - below this threshold, back value is getting hard to find. Best value for back bets is found at prices of $9.00 or more in my view.

I would be very wary of laying something above $7.00 - above this threshold, lay value is getting hard to find. Best value for lay bets is found at prices of $2.00 or less in my view.

To summarize, back very high (>$9), lay very low (<$2) for best value.

[Euler]

I agree

[buyshirts]

Zenyatta thanks for your insight.
The market im looking at primarily is over/unders 2.50 goals. So obviously im not going to get the back prices you highlight. I understand i could go higher up the goals chain to find this prices and the "Value".

What im trying to do is model and come up with a Fair Value for a certain set of circumstances and then see how far out away from that price i would need to bet to find some profit. I do except that the market im looking at is very efficient but it is as much a learn exercise as money making.
I don't have any experience of pricing a market from scratch but felt this is one of the easy ones to start with.