Jeff
Euler wrote:So the conclusion after all that is that paying commission reduces your chance of a profit
Not exactly a shock really.
Trading at random
You don't pay commission on the losing half of your trade, but those of us on five percent pay a fair old wack for the other half, which can quickly erode profits!
Jeff
Jeff
Hi PeterLe,
Thanks for the feedback.
As for always doing the same thing, one one level I have always done the same thing, but on another I haven't. What I mean is that I've tried many different things, but I haven't been consistent or disciplined, which has been the common theme.
The 'how' of trading isn't difficult in my opinion. Some of the most successful traders in the world have very simple systems. No, the challenge isn't the market, it's the enemy within - the fact that emotions like boredom, frustration and greed can hijack an otherwise rational and intelligent person's judgment.
As regards writing a novel, I may well have a go. It's been something I've been putting off since I was about 20, and I'm 39 now, so if I don't JFDI it probably won't get done!
At least with writing, you can get good results from having a creative mindset, whereas if you try to be too clever when trading, you generally meet the same fate as the guy who thought he'd have some fun with a crocodile!
My focus for now, though, is getting back in work. If anyone is looking for a copywriter, drop me a message! I hope that doesn't count as spam!
Jeff
Thanks for the feedback.
As for always doing the same thing, one one level I have always done the same thing, but on another I haven't. What I mean is that I've tried many different things, but I haven't been consistent or disciplined, which has been the common theme.
The 'how' of trading isn't difficult in my opinion. Some of the most successful traders in the world have very simple systems. No, the challenge isn't the market, it's the enemy within - the fact that emotions like boredom, frustration and greed can hijack an otherwise rational and intelligent person's judgment.
As regards writing a novel, I may well have a go. It's been something I've been putting off since I was about 20, and I'm 39 now, so if I don't JFDI it probably won't get done!
At least with writing, you can get good results from having a creative mindset, whereas if you try to be too clever when trading, you generally meet the same fate as the guy who thought he'd have some fun with a crocodile! My focus for now, though, is getting back in work. If anyone is looking for a copywriter, drop me a message! I hope that doesn't count as spam!
Jeff
It's funny really because this shows you a difference in mindsets. When I started nearly 14 years ago, I started by trading at random and figured out the gap to break even was so small that I must stand a fair chance of overcoming it. All I needed to do was slightly better than average than random and that turned out to be easier than I imagined.
For the amount of money you have put through Jeff it's not a massive loss.
For the amount of money you have put through Jeff it's not a massive loss.
Jeff
Another thing I intended saying..
I know its not always possible, (and you may have done this anyway)..always try and ask for the price rather that taking what is on offer..crossing that line is sometimes as simple as that
I was going going to do that on on your spreadsheet..(but its not the full P&L from betfair) i was going to see what your P&L would have been if you had backed one tick higher and laid one tick lower.
it would be interesting to see what one tick makes? Id be happy to do it for you if you dont want to publish your P&L for all to see
You may even have been in profit?
Another thing I intended saying..
I know its not always possible, (and you may have done this anyway)..always try and ask for the price rather that taking what is on offer..crossing that line is sometimes as simple as that
I was going going to do that on on your spreadsheet..(but its not the full P&L from betfair) i was going to see what your P&L would have been if you had backed one tick higher and laid one tick lower.
it would be interesting to see what one tick makes? Id be happy to do it for you if you dont want to publish your P&L for all to see
You may even have been in profit?
Hi Peter
Offering to the market only gives you an advantage if your fill rate is such that you end up better off overall.
Sometimes, you may offer to the market and be a tick better off than if you'd taken the available price. On another occasion, you'll offer to the market and it will suddenly move 3 ticks away from you, and you'll be cursing the missed opportunity. And whilst I sometimes offer to open a trade, I rarely offer to close. If the market is trending away from your position, there's a good chance IMHO it won't be interested in taking money you offer.
I think it may be a case of swings and roundabouts.
Jeff
Offering to the market only gives you an advantage if your fill rate is such that you end up better off overall.
Sometimes, you may offer to the market and be a tick better off than if you'd taken the available price. On another occasion, you'll offer to the market and it will suddenly move 3 ticks away from you, and you'll be cursing the missed opportunity. And whilst I sometimes offer to open a trade, I rarely offer to close. If the market is trending away from your position, there's a good chance IMHO it won't be interested in taking money you offer.
I think it may be a case of swings and roundabouts.
Jeff
I took a nose at the spreadsheet on the thread. I would say you are correct on betting side but wrong on the trading side. The -ve return is much smaller. I have some actual data and the amount of commission you pay on trading vs betting the same amount is much, much smaller.
HI Jeff
The only reason I mentioned it is because I did exactly that a few years ago on the in plays stuff.
I downloaded 3 months worth of bets and calculated what the overall difference would have been, based on a number of scenarios i.e.
- Back one tick higher and lay one tick lower
- back one tick higher and lay at the same price etc etc
I can tell you, over 800 races a month in the summer and numerous bets in play, it made a massive difference.
I did use the info to implement into my strategy; yes I knew that I would get as many matched etc, but it was worthwhile looking into
This is essential the "Honing and refining, then rinse and repeat" that you apply to make it work and take a system into profit
Regards
Peter
The only reason I mentioned it is because I did exactly that a few years ago on the in plays stuff.
I downloaded 3 months worth of bets and calculated what the overall difference would have been, based on a number of scenarios i.e.
- Back one tick higher and lay one tick lower
- back one tick higher and lay at the same price etc etc
I can tell you, over 800 races a month in the summer and numerous bets in play, it made a massive difference.
I did use the info to implement into my strategy; yes I knew that I would get as many matched etc, but it was worthwhile looking into
This is essential the "Honing and refining, then rinse and repeat" that you apply to make it work and take a system into profit
Regards
Peter
Yeah, this is your mistake:
If you're BETTING, back and lay two horses in different races at 1.9 and 2.0. Assuming both horses win (to compare against the above example), you have two net positions: -£100 for your losing lay bet and pay 0% in that market, and +£90 for your winning lay bet and pay 5% of £90 in that market.
In this second example you're -£14.5 compared to -£10 in the first one, which is quite a considerable difference considering you've only turned over £200 in both cases. I'd agree that over 1000s of races both might have the same GROSS outcome, but definitely not for the purposes of commission calculations.
Betting is great for generating commission if you're a PC payer, but generally not very easy to profit on in any consistent manner unless you have a large edge.
If you're TRADING, back and lay the same horse £100 at 1.9 and 2.0 as above, commission is only paid on your NET position which is -£10 (assuming the horse won). i.e. You pay 0% commission.Ferru123 wrote: Let's say I were to back a horse at 1.9 and lay it for the same amount at 2.0. Over millions of iterations, surely I'd expect to pay roughly the same commission and have roughly the same ROI as I would if I were to back a horse for 1.9 in one race and then lay a different horse for 2.0 in another race.
If you're BETTING, back and lay two horses in different races at 1.9 and 2.0. Assuming both horses win (to compare against the above example), you have two net positions: -£100 for your losing lay bet and pay 0% in that market, and +£90 for your winning lay bet and pay 5% of £90 in that market.
In this second example you're -£14.5 compared to -£10 in the first one, which is quite a considerable difference considering you've only turned over £200 in both cases. I'd agree that over 1000s of races both might have the same GROSS outcome, but definitely not for the purposes of commission calculations.
Betting is great for generating commission if you're a PC payer, but generally not very easy to profit on in any consistent manner unless you have a large edge.
Genuine, non-rhetorical question - If it's that easy, why isn't everyone doing it?Euler wrote: When I discovered this many moons ago I realised all I needed to do was be every so slightly better than random to make a profit. When that happened I started focusing on how to put more money through the market. That simple.
Jeff
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spreadbetting
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Like you've mentioned earlier, Jeff, poor discipline, boredom,large turnover for smallish returns, not as exciting as gambling, etc etc all stop most people from sticking to the plan. I'd agree with Euler, tipping the odds slightly in your favour isn't as hard as it may appear and guess most people would be shocked at just how simple some winning strategies can be.
Well, unfortunately I'm in the same boat as Jeff, years of effort, thousands of pounds spent, and absolutely no success.
I wonder what would happen if me and Jeff visited the BetAngel offices one day and Euler tried to teach us. Could be quite amusing, since we both appear to be truly hopeless cases. Put it this way, if Euler could teach us, then he could teach anybody
Peter Le mentioned novel writing as a possible career path. Well, unfortunately, your chances of writing a best-selling novel is even more remote than success at trading
I wonder what would happen if me and Jeff visited the BetAngel offices one day and Euler tried to teach us. Could be quite amusing, since we both appear to be truly hopeless cases. Put it this way, if Euler could teach us, then he could teach anybody
Peter Le mentioned novel writing as a possible career path. Well, unfortunately, your chances of writing a best-selling novel is even more remote than success at trading
That is a huge problem for people, no doubt about it.spreadbetting wrote:Like you've mentioned earlier, Jeff, poor discipline, boredom,large turnover for smallish returns, not as exciting as gambling, etc etc all stop most people from sticking to the plan.
If you trade a race with a view to trading out for a maximum loss of £10, that's fine, but it will never be as exciting as actually having a tenner punt on a selection
I admit - I AM REALLY flipping BORED of trading. But, I'm stuck because I'm not going to earn this money on the outside - not at 43 with having not worked for 6 years. Boredom makes you do daft things, and I've just become a zombie now to stop any mistakes
This game is tough, it's rewarding if you can make it work, but fun it is not
Le Tiss -
Don't write off your chances of getting back into regular work (if you want it).
My CV shows me as having been a pro gambler for two years. I'm sure it causes some people to put my application in the bin. However, I have spoken to a number of interviewers who have been genuinely intrigued by it.
Any decent employer would look at your sales record pre-trading, and think, 'People haven't changed in the past six years, so if this guy could get people to buy stuff back then, he can still do so now'.
Jeff
Don't write off your chances of getting back into regular work (if you want it).
My CV shows me as having been a pro gambler for two years. I'm sure it causes some people to put my application in the bin. However, I have spoken to a number of interviewers who have been genuinely intrigued by it.
Any decent employer would look at your sales record pre-trading, and think, 'People haven't changed in the past six years, so if this guy could get people to buy stuff back then, he can still do so now'.
Jeff
Guys
You know, its tough on the outside too. Conservatively thinking; if you look at an average full time guy on here, lets say they make £5- £8K a month?...well that equates to a £100K salary outside..
That sort of salary brings a lot of responsibility and hard work too.
At that level (certainly in Sales) Its no different in the workplace in that the bottom 20 are released each year if they dont preform. That's a given in the large corporations. If you move up to the £200K+ a year bracket, you have to be prepared to full everything else (in your personal life) on hold
Its not so easy out there either!
regards
Peter
You know, its tough on the outside too. Conservatively thinking; if you look at an average full time guy on here, lets say they make £5- £8K a month?...well that equates to a £100K salary outside..
That sort of salary brings a lot of responsibility and hard work too.
At that level (certainly in Sales) Its no different in the workplace in that the bottom 20 are released each year if they dont preform. That's a given in the large corporations. If you move up to the £200K+ a year bracket, you have to be prepared to full everything else (in your personal life) on hold
Its not so easy out there either!
regards
Peter
I think Zenyatta and Jeff probably over trade, when you trade and you think that has a chance of winning just leave it, just go for the ones that look like you can't lose, as Le tiss said it is boring thats because he'l sit and watch numbers for a long time just waiting for that really good chance.
Try it it may turn your slight loss into a profit.
Try it it may turn your slight loss into a profit.