Awesome marketing...

[Iron]

With respect, that's like the lion telling the gazelles that there is no shortage of food!

Betfair is overwhelmingly positive for people who make an overall profit - and I hope to become one of those people. But it is a sum zero game where the few profit from the many.

Once again you try and find a negative from something that is an overwhelming positive.

[Euler]

Spread and commission aren't transaction fees?

N Jeff, it's your perception of things, nothing to do with my interpretation. We have discussed this many many times, but you are still stuck in the wrong mindset for some reason. I can't help you there.

As previously discussed, you have direct market access on Betfair so there is no reason to pay a spread. Commission is only on winning positions and its tiny in the scheme of things and can easily be overcome. But we've discussed this to death all before.

See the opportunity for what it is, not what it isn't.

[Euler]

TBH I'm glad I developed the will to leave a normal job all those years ago and be independent of thought to go out and do this. Easily the best decision of my life and it's given me the strength to trust my own judgement and push forward in a number of areas. Regardless of what people say.

[LeTiss]

Jeff

With all due respect, anybody who tries to take on Peter Webb with a discussion about the merits of trading is destined to lose.

You have no idea how bloody lucky you are mate - to have the opportunity to gain knowledge from this man is absolutely invaluable, so listen to him and learn.

I admire your resilience - that's a quality you should use to your advantage.

However, don't waste your time and energy with silly arguments with Peter - your just dangling a bleeding leg into the Tasman Sea

[Iron]

Le Tiss

Thanks for the advice, although I'm comfortable taking anyone on in a debate (even when I'm going to get beaten). The way I look at it is that I can't lose - if they can show me I'm wrong, I'll have learned something.

All I'm saying is that most traders are net losers - that trading is an ecosystem where the few profit from the many (not that I have a problem with that).

I don't think that even Peter disputes that I'm right about those things. In fact, I'm not sure our positions are poles apart, except that he is more enthusiastic about what trading can offer people than I am, perhaps seeing it as less of a shark pool.

As for this thin line you need to cross to profitability, I'd say it's a bit like saying you'd have won the National Lottery last week if only you weren't a few numbers out! The psychological aspects of trading are very important, but you also need to have a long-term edge, and that's a crucial ingredient that most people probably lack.

Jeff

With all due respect, anybody who tries to take on Peter Webb with a discussion about the merits of trading is destined to lose.

[Euler]

if they can show me I'm wrong, I'll have learned something.

But you often don't seem capable of learning Jeff?

Debating whether trading works or not was put to bed a long long time ago. It's far superior to traditional gambling for a number of reason and many many people have done so well from it. Bet Angel has created quite a few millionaires directly or indirectly. Which is amazing. OK you just can't turn up press a few buttons and make a fortune but the opportunity has been fantastic.

TBH, I want the forum to be a discussion about markets and styles and healthy debate around those. That's interesting and stimulating. Debating the merits of whether you should trade or not seems a bit backward on a trading forum. We are here to trade and / or to deploy advanced betting strategies. Let's focus on that.

The trade on that video was pretty simple to pull off. I'm inspired now to talk about it during my course tomorrow, so I've dug out the full video to show everybody. You would be surprised how simple it was to spot.

[Iron]

OK, but I don't see much discussion of those things tbh.

I'm not blaming anyone for that, btw - I realise that no-one wants to give their edge away - but when one asks a technical question one seems to generally get a response about the importance of doing one's own research. And heaven forbid anyone dare to challenge the view of a pro. I seem to remember you once writing something in another forum years ago about how groups tend to turn on people who express dissenting opinions, and it's true. But I digress...

Also, I think it's legitimate to say to people, especially people who aren't succeeding, 'Many are called, few are chosen. Is this really the right opportunity for you?'. However, it's your forum, so I won't pursue that angle if you don't want me to.

Jeff

TBH, I want the forum to be a discussion about markets and styles and healthy debate around those. That's interesting and stimulating.

We are here to trade and / or to deploy advanced betting strategies. Let's focus on that.

[Euler]

It's not my forum its everybodies and I want to encourage free debate for sure, but I think the 'does trading work' debate has been done to death. I just want people to focus on helping the community in general and newbies get on the ladder.

There are so many areas in which we can bring some light onto peoples aspirations. Of course they need to be aware of the risks but also the opportunities IMHO.

We are fighting the sportsbooks really and our world than that of the sportsbook is so different it would be a shame to think people are put off and never get the chance to do something clever.

[BabyArber]

Well nice to see this thread take off and some healthy debate generated!

For the record, most people who meet me comment that I am generally a very positive person. I believe I also am lucky enough to have a highly sensitive bullshit detector; to my mind it was quite clear from the get go that trading sports has huge potential.

Peter gets a lot of the credit for this, but there is also plenty of other information out there that supported this logic.

After spending significant time and effort researching the top 3 trading softwares, Bet Angel stands out as the most 'authentic', deep, well rounded and professionally supported product.

But it's by no means perfect, other tools maybe better in some respects depending on your own strengths and weaknesses as a trader.

Anyway, to continue the debate, I completely agree with Peter's last comment - the enemy here is the sportsbook and the root cause is the power of their big marketing budgets to lure innocent punters into poor value betting.

So the enemy is marketing... but there is hope - the last 10 years has seen the field of marketing change dramatically... many business models changed and websites like Tripadvisor have encouraged businesses to be more authentic. Great marketing and average product doesn't work - at least in some industries.

...and then we come to Betfair - an oxymoron of the 21st century... a brilliant innovator when it burst onto the scene but nowadays seemingly treating the exchange as a cash cow and pushing punters back to old school poor value betting.

Well the cat is out of the bag now, so what does the future hold?

Personally, I would like to see a consortium of experienced traders work together to form their own open source betting exchange. Commissions would be used to pay for infrastructure and whatever is left over would be used as marketing budget to drive more punters to the exchange.

Whether this can happen? I really don't know. I was very disappointed to read in Peter's blog that exchanges are not really getting much traction in the US. For me, the opportunity presented by a betting exchange seems to fit well with the American philosophy of 'the land of opportunity'; the strong get rich, the weak lose.

Certainly, it will need more pioneers like Peter to both locate those key decision makers and make a strong case to convince them that betting exchanges have a place in civilized society.

So I'd like to stimulate more discussion by asking you to think about one simple question:

What value do betting exchanges provide for society?

[CaerMyrddin]

Great question, with a pretty simple answer: value. If you are gambling at random in the exchange you will go burst much slowly. If you take gambling as a medium to have some fun, you are getting more fun and emotion at a cheaper price.

I'm not blaming anyone for that, btw - I realise that no-one wants to give their edge away - but when one asks a technical question one seems to generally get a response about the importance of doing one's own research

Although doing your own research is crucial, that's a bit unfair Jeff... You know we've discussed a pretty straight forward edge.

[Iron]

We have, and I thank you for sharing it (and thanks to everyone else who has shared ideas and insights with me). However, I was talking about ideas shared in the open forum, not privately.

Jeff

You know we've discussed a pretty straight forward edge.

[Euler]

I think several others have shared with you as well Jeff. Not a bad deal!

[Iron]

No comment. I'm not going to enter into public discussion about private conversations I might have had.

Jeff

I think several others have shared with you as well Jeff. Not a bad deal!

[LeTiss]

Do you actually do any trading, Jeff?

I know you messed around in the practice area for a while, but have you ever showed a trader some of your trades for guidance?

I sometimes get the impression that you talk yourself into such negativity and doubt, that you end up just offering opinions from the touchline

[Iron]

Do you actually do any trading, Jeff?

Not recently, but if you remember I posted a while back to report that my turnover over the years was in the millions.

I know you messed around in the practice area for a while, but have you ever showed a trader some of your trades for guidance?

Not recently. But to cut a long story short, I don't think there would be any benefit to me doing so.

I sometimes get the impression that you talk yourself into such negativity and doubt, that you end up just offering opinions from the touchline

I do suffer from doubt at times - although a degree of doubt is healthy, if it helps you to trade with humility. My main issue has been indiscipline though - but I'm working on it, and I think I know the way forward.

Jeff