Except the ones that dont!!
Newbies Trading in the Dark
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Steven Smith
- Posts: 3
- Joined: Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:41 am
Thank you for your informative post.
I am one of those in the dark and I look forward to following you observations and comments.
I am one of those in the dark and I look forward to following you observations and comments.
The premium charge...threedogs wrote:Hi,
I find your post very interesting however you keep saying 'after tax' and as there is no betting tax I wondered what you were referring to?
http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/
This is all far too analytical and complex than you need. I started knowing nothing 18 months ago and now am doing very nicely, but without all the "analysis paralysis" it really isn't needed to the degree covered by this person here.
My advice is simple - buy quality hands on training by a pro. That's what I did and I quickly learned the principles of trading, how to use BA, set up candle charts and then follow a range of 15 strategies across racing, footie and tennis that have been proven and work.
This weekend I will spend about an hour or so doing some stat checks at a relatively high level and then get on with trading and will make a decent return.
"the edge" is over used. Learn some tricks from traders through training and you will learn what to do, when and how.
Just my view, but I do find so many people just try and jump in. You need to pay to learn properly otherwise risk money and faff around trying to understand what is happening and why.
My advice is simple - buy quality hands on training by a pro. That's what I did and I quickly learned the principles of trading, how to use BA, set up candle charts and then follow a range of 15 strategies across racing, footie and tennis that have been proven and work.
This weekend I will spend about an hour or so doing some stat checks at a relatively high level and then get on with trading and will make a decent return.
"the edge" is over used. Learn some tricks from traders through training and you will learn what to do, when and how.
Just my view, but I do find so many people just try and jump in. You need to pay to learn properly otherwise risk money and faff around trying to understand what is happening and why.
You could, although James 1st is a pro, and he's offered detailed advice FOC that you've dismissed as 'paralysis analysis'. Why assume that advice you pay for will be better quality than that which is available FOC in forums such as this?ray131262 wrote: My advice is simple - buy quality hands on training by a pro.
Also, what makes you think that you'll necessarily be able to profit from the pro's methods? Unless they show you exactly what they do (they won't), you may well end up missing the vital ingredient(s).
A pro has found a method that works for them (up to now, anyway). That may be because of what they think they know about the market, or it may be despite it. If that seems implausible, consider why pros in this forum disagree with each other about various things.
You'll try to. It's not guaranteed.ray131262 wrote:This weekend I will spend about an hour or so doing some stat checks at a relatively high level and then get on with trading and will make a decent return.
Are you able to name the pro you learned from, btw? It wasn't a guy called Tony, was it?
Jeff
I find this offensiveFerru123 wrote:
Also, what makes you think that you'll necessarily be able to profit from the pro's methods? Unless they show you exactly what they do (they won't), you may well end up missing the vital ingredient(s).
Jeff
I'll say this for Mugs - he HAS shown his methods and thought process in his videos as fine as I've ever seen a trader explain his methods.
Euler does this in some of his videos, but not many other traders I know would go out of their way to genuinely help new traders.
You're a class on your own Mugs. Stay up there.
Euler does this in some of his videos, but not many other traders I know would go out of their way to genuinely help new traders.
You're a class on your own Mugs. Stay up there.
Mugs
I'll state at the outset that I appreciate that you put a lot of time and effort into providing quality guidance to Betfair traders.
What I wrote wasn't meant to offend. It was meant as a constructive and honest assessment (something you yourself are very good at providing):
- I don't want newbies to waste hours trying to scrape hidden meaning into a pro's posts.
- I also don't want them losing money from trying to emulate a pro because they think they know what the pro does even when they don't.
I maintain that no pro will reveal in public their exact methods (with the possible exception of your good self), as to do so risks ruining their own edge. So what you're left with is partial ingredients to baking a cake. That can be useful if the newbie uses it as a basis for further research and theorizing about the dynamics of the market. However, I think you and I both know that most people don't want to put in any effort - they want a messiah who will give them the formula to making £500 a day with little or no effort, and that ain't gonna happen. That's all I was saying.
Jeff
I'll state at the outset that I appreciate that you put a lot of time and effort into providing quality guidance to Betfair traders.
What I wrote wasn't meant to offend. It was meant as a constructive and honest assessment (something you yourself are very good at providing):
- I don't want newbies to waste hours trying to scrape hidden meaning into a pro's posts.
- I also don't want them losing money from trying to emulate a pro because they think they know what the pro does even when they don't.
I maintain that no pro will reveal in public their exact methods (with the possible exception of your good self), as to do so risks ruining their own edge. So what you're left with is partial ingredients to baking a cake. That can be useful if the newbie uses it as a basis for further research and theorizing about the dynamics of the market. However, I think you and I both know that most people don't want to put in any effort - they want a messiah who will give them the formula to making £500 a day with little or no effort, and that ain't gonna happen. That's all I was saying.
Jeff
mugsgame wrote:I find this offensiveFerru123 wrote:
Also, what makes you think that you'll necessarily be able to profit from the pro's methods? Unless they show you exactly what they do (they won't), you may well end up missing the vital ingredient(s).
Jeff
[quote="Ferru123"]
I maintain that no pro will reveal in public their exact methods, as to do so will ruin their own edge.
[quote="Ferru123"]
Hi Jeff,
I think you're right in 99.9% of the cases. I dont consider myself a pro as such, but I certainly wouldn't disclose my auto methods. Ill give hints and genuine suggestions as to how people can find their own and refine and strengthen them, but not full blown step by step instructions
However, Mugs is the other 0.1%, he genuinely does give his methods. I dont think there is anyone out there on the net that compares? In developing the manual side of my trading, Ive learned a lot just from watching his videos.
I can only imagine how much effort he puts in, but I know he gets immense satisfaction from helping people out there.
regards
Peter
I maintain that no pro will reveal in public their exact methods, as to do so will ruin their own edge.
[quote="Ferru123"]
Hi Jeff,
I think you're right in 99.9% of the cases. I dont consider myself a pro as such, but I certainly wouldn't disclose my auto methods. Ill give hints and genuine suggestions as to how people can find their own and refine and strengthen them, but not full blown step by step instructions
However, Mugs is the other 0.1%, he genuinely does give his methods. I dont think there is anyone out there on the net that compares? In developing the manual side of my trading, Ive learned a lot just from watching his videos.
I can only imagine how much effort he puts in, but I know he gets immense satisfaction from helping people out there.
regards
Peter
Hi Peter
After I wrote my original post, I edited it to add 'with the possible exception of your good self', as on reflection Mugs genuinely doesn't seem to hold anything back.
However - and I don't mean this as a criticism of Mugs - I don't know whether he himself is consciously aware of why he does everything he does. I get the impression that a lot of it is based on instinct and judgement, making it hard to emulate his methods.
That said, if a newbie approaches Mugs's videos with the mindset of 'what ideas can I learn from this guy?', and then goes away and investigates whether they can learn how to profit from a particular idea or market principle, then it could help them. I think people seeking a simple formula to make £500 a day will be disappointed, but in fairness to Mugs, he doesn't pretend that there is a road to easy riches (quite the opposite).
Jeff
After I wrote my original post, I edited it to add 'with the possible exception of your good self', as on reflection Mugs genuinely doesn't seem to hold anything back.
However - and I don't mean this as a criticism of Mugs - I don't know whether he himself is consciously aware of why he does everything he does. I get the impression that a lot of it is based on instinct and judgement, making it hard to emulate his methods.
That said, if a newbie approaches Mugs's videos with the mindset of 'what ideas can I learn from this guy?', and then goes away and investigates whether they can learn how to profit from a particular idea or market principle, then it could help them. I think people seeking a simple formula to make £500 a day will be disappointed, but in fairness to Mugs, he doesn't pretend that there is a road to easy riches (quite the opposite).
Jeff
I think we are singing from the same hymn sheet actually Jeff if you put it like that.
I am 100% with PeterLe regarding the automated stuff. It's so difficult to come up with the winning strategies, and they soon disappear. I have 1 or 2 myself that I wouldn't give away (or sell).
But for "normal" trading it's different. I think you are spot on when you say about hidden meaning in "pros" posts. That's why I go to such lengths to over explain everything I do. I am sure it drives some people mad. But if you go into as much detail as you can it gives some confidence to others that what you are actually saying is correct.
I am also sure that some just will never have the correct temperament for it. At one time I mentored someone to the point they made £50k in 12 months. They then thought they knew better than me and spunked the lot up the wall in weeks. That was all do with the mental side of trading. You can give the technical triggers and all the indicators in the world. But you cannot be there to pull the trigger. For me thats the difference between making it and not. The difference is much smaller than you think. Like any professional in any walk of life. It's the small details that make the big difference.
My Brother is a HGV technician. He can hardly read or write. But he has an incredible ability to fix anything mechanical. If I said to him "turn on my PC" he wouldn't know where to begin. A few years back I was trying to get a bolt undone on my bike. I had turned the head into a mangled mess. The only way to get it out was remove the engine and strip it. He comes along and called me a few names (he gets his tact from me) then just undoes the nut in 2 seconds (still swearing at me). He knew the techniques and had the right temperament to undo it. I had lost my rag and butchered it. - I didn't have the skill or the correct attitude.
Back to your point Jeff. For me there is no "secret" ladder trading. I can give out every single piece of knowledge I have (which i pretty much do) - But there is no edge - it's about interpretation. The mechanical levers that trigger a trade can be given. It's how you interpret that. I agree that it may be out of some peoples reach (no disrespect to them - There are a million things out of my reach) but having the knowledge to try is better than no knowledge at all.
Sorry - rambling again Group hug Jeff - no offence taken we all good fella
I am 100% with PeterLe regarding the automated stuff. It's so difficult to come up with the winning strategies, and they soon disappear. I have 1 or 2 myself that I wouldn't give away (or sell).
But for "normal" trading it's different. I think you are spot on when you say about hidden meaning in "pros" posts. That's why I go to such lengths to over explain everything I do. I am sure it drives some people mad. But if you go into as much detail as you can it gives some confidence to others that what you are actually saying is correct.
I am also sure that some just will never have the correct temperament for it. At one time I mentored someone to the point they made £50k in 12 months. They then thought they knew better than me and spunked the lot up the wall in weeks. That was all do with the mental side of trading. You can give the technical triggers and all the indicators in the world. But you cannot be there to pull the trigger. For me thats the difference between making it and not. The difference is much smaller than you think. Like any professional in any walk of life. It's the small details that make the big difference.
My Brother is a HGV technician. He can hardly read or write. But he has an incredible ability to fix anything mechanical. If I said to him "turn on my PC" he wouldn't know where to begin. A few years back I was trying to get a bolt undone on my bike. I had turned the head into a mangled mess. The only way to get it out was remove the engine and strip it. He comes along and called me a few names (he gets his tact from me) then just undoes the nut in 2 seconds (still swearing at me). He knew the techniques and had the right temperament to undo it. I had lost my rag and butchered it. - I didn't have the skill or the correct attitude.
Back to your point Jeff. For me there is no "secret" ladder trading. I can give out every single piece of knowledge I have (which i pretty much do) - But there is no edge - it's about interpretation. The mechanical levers that trigger a trade can be given. It's how you interpret that. I agree that it may be out of some peoples reach (no disrespect to them - There are a million things out of my reach) but having the knowledge to try is better than no knowledge at all.
Sorry - rambling again
Group hug Jeff - no offence taken we all good fella -
Groovyelms
- Posts: 277
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 7:42 am
mugs wrote in last post:-
"Back to your point Jeff. For me there is no "secret" ladder trading. I can give out every single piece of knowledge I have (which i pretty much do) - But there is no edge - it's about interpretation. The mechanical levers that trigger a trade can be given. It's how you interpret that. I agree that it may be out of some peoples reach (no disrespect to them - There are a million things out of my reach) but having the knowledge to try is better than no knowledge at all"
This paragraph says it all to me...thanks Mugs
groovy
"Back to your point Jeff. For me there is no "secret" ladder trading. I can give out every single piece of knowledge I have (which i pretty much do) - But there is no edge - it's about interpretation. The mechanical levers that trigger a trade can be given. It's how you interpret that. I agree that it may be out of some peoples reach (no disrespect to them - There are a million things out of my reach) but having the knowledge to try is better than no knowledge at all"
This paragraph says it all to me...thanks Mugs
groovy