Cheltenham Festival 2021

[rik]

Two good days ahead by my reckoning. This looked the hardest day.

What do you account that from? for me the days all seem very similiar

I'm looking at possible trading time, volatility, fill rate etc. First and second day couldn't have been more different.

Interesting.
By trading time you mean that some races are more suited to be traded further away from race start time, and you know that already now which ones?
Fill rate there has been a noticebable difference between Day1 and 2?
Volatility wise all i notice is prices are very stable until around 3 minutes then some can shoot off but that was the same for both days? Maybe my reception is not that finetuned

[rik]

Wouldn't a lay on the last selection effectively hedge whatever the result?

yes, the cash out offered is effectively a lay 1.86 on the last runner

[gstar1975]

Would you cash out?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sport ... enham.html

CS

I wouldn't have even thought about placing a bet like that.

[gstar1975]

Wouldn't a lay on the last selection effectively hedge whatever the result?

What would the lay stake be?

[gstar1975]

Cheltenham Volumes from yesterday compared to 2020

Chelt Vols Day 2 170321 compared to 2020.jpg

[wearthefoxhat]

Looks like he's done the right thing IMO - https://mobile.twitter.com/istabraq_kin ... 0872786946

+1

As long as he keeps his ante-post accas' to the same £5, he won't give it back.

[rik]

Wouldn't a lay on the last selection effectively hedge whatever the result?

What would the lay stake be?

511 : 1.43 = 357k lay stake makes 154k liability

if 500k is too much for you why place an accumulator for that amount, just let the bookmaker rip you off one more time with cashout makes no sense, according to the sceenshot the guy has at least 20k in his account so shouldnt be desperate for the money

[rik]

How can you back all 5 runners at way higher than SP, 25-1 on a 6-4, 9-2 on a 1-2 that seems dodgy probably fake story to attract more mug punters.


"
He stands to win so much because he backed the horses at odds far above what they actually won at.

For example, Bob Olinger won the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at odds of 6-4.

But the punter backed the horse at a massive 25-1.

The same happened with Shishkin, who was backed to win the Arkle Chase at 4-1 before triumphing at a miniscule 4-9.

Golden Horde won the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot back in June last year at 5-1 - but was backed at 12-1 by Dean.

And Hello Youmzain was a 10-1 winner in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes.

[Trader Pat]

if 500k is too much for you why place an accumulator for that amount, just let the bookmaker rip you off one more time with cashout makes no sense, according to the sceenshot the guy has at least 20k in his account so shouldnt be desperate for the money

Because nobody expects these accies to come in, you don't do them thinking they're going to win. The common sense thing to do is take the money, yes he's leaving 'value' on the table but this chance will probably never come along again so you'd have to be a complete degenerate gambler to let that run. If Envoi Allen was 4/1 and he was being offered a lot less then I might say let it run but to get that kind of return on a fiver and not take it he'd either be mad or the type of person who bets on snail racing.

[Euler]

Cheltenham Volumes from yesterday compared to 2020


Chelt Vols Day 2 170321 compared to 2020.jpg

Probably best to put the price of the favourite in those comparisons as that will highlight where short prices have driven volume.

[Yantraman]

.. the shrort price favs really suck in cash in such a concentrated way - and I maybe wrong - But a shortie in the first race of the day may attract even more cash.

I often watch markets for 2hrs b4 the off in Chelt but I broke my own record for pre off scalping last nigh by trading Envoi Allen at 8pm last night!!! the market had 350/400k matched at that point

[jamesg46]

This is where we find out if the fella wins his 500k.... anyone been to his Twitter to see if he cashed or not?

[Trader Pat]

He partially cashed out

300k if Envoi Allen wins, 250k if he doesn't

[Korattt]

Hexham really not doing us any favours here

[plasteredric]

he was just on itv racing talking about it