(BLOG) Laying the Lame: Betting against the odds favorites

[Dogfather]

Yesterday's result:

1 win
0 loss

+0,98 units

Bank 104,02 units

Today:

13:23 Warwick - Captain Marvellous (1.76)

14:23 Warwick -Lady Jago (3)

14:30 Southwell - The Kniphand (2.6)

16:10 Southwell - In The Air (2.4)

14:10 Salisbury - Eupator (2.8)

17:40 Newcastle - Byblos (2.98)

16:15 Bellewstown - Chantilly (2.38)

I'm really tired of analyzing all this I hope my efforts will not be in vain

[ForFolksSake]

In-Play
Backed Captain Marvellous @ 1.62 down to 1.4
Greened Up @1.42 for £1.67 profit

Backed Captain Marvellous again from 1.06 down to 1.01 for total profit £2.15

[Dogfather]

In-Play
Backed Captain Marvellous @ 1.62 down to 1.4
Greened Up @1.42 for £1.67 profit

Backed Captain Marvellous again from 1.06 down to 1.01 for total profit £2.15

Great job! Do you watch the broadcast during the races or do you only rely on the odds?

[ForFolksSake]

In-Play
Backed Captain Marvellous @ 1.62 down to 1.4
Greened Up @1.42 for £1.67 profit

Backed Captain Marvellous again from 1.06 down to 1.01 for total profit £2.15

Great job! Do you watch the broadcast during the races or do you only rely on the odds?

Pics ? - if it was only as simple as that

[Dogfather]

Yesterday's result:

3 wins
4 losses

-2.82 units

Bank 101,2 units

It wasn't a great day, but it taught me a lot. There will be no bets today, a lot of work.

[Kai]

It wasn't a great day, but it taught me a lot.

Exactly

[Dogfather]

Horse racing for today:

14:10 Redcar - Binhareer (2)
18:00 Wolverhampton - Magic Glow (2.6)
13:40 Curragh - Giselle (1.7)

[ForFolksSake]

Horse racing for today:

14:10 Redcar - Binhareer (2)
18:00 Wolverhampton - Magic Glow (2.6)
13:40 Curragh - Giselle (1.7)

In-Play
Backed Giselle @ 1.07 down to 1.01
Greened Up @1.01 - for a 'cup of tea' (old money )
reduced advantage close home - spiked back out to 1.7

[Dogfather]

I'll share the results tomorrow as usual. Let me say right away that today wasn't a very good day. I'm feeling a bit down, and it's not just because of the bets – there are many reasons. You try your best, but nothing works out, and it's really demotivating. I hope that after this dark period, a bright one will come, and oh God, how I wish I could quit my job.

[sionascaig]

I'll share the results tomorrow as usual. Let me say right away that today wasn't a very good day. I'm feeling a bit down, and it's not just because of the bets – there are many reasons. You try your best, but nothing works out, and it's really demotivating.

Yes. There are some really good books in the Reading section on psychology / mindset required. It is not an easy thing to learn although some take more naturally to it.

If you have an edge just need to power through and if still trying to figure out if you have an edge keep the stakes well within your comfort zone.

One day last week one of my value bots traded 60 odd markets and had a winning streek of 19 races before the 1st loss - think I ended up with 4 or 5 losses and slightly ahead from what was a very good position. It's just what happens.

Underlying it all is ==> did I enter at a good price or not...

If yes, then move on... If not, then what could I have done differently...

[Dogfather]

sionascaig, Thanks for the advice, I'm not completely sure yet that I have an advantage. I want to see what the results will be at the end of the month and draw conclusions. In general, my goal is to profit more than 20 units per month.

Yesterday's result:

1 win
2 losses

-0,72 units

Bank 100,48 units

For today:

13:20 Tipperary - Serious Contender (2.46)
15:40 Tipperary - Daddy Long Legs (2.32)
17:25 Tipperary - Al Arrivee (2.18)

[ForFolksSake]

sionascaig, Thanks for the advice, I'm not completely sure yet that I have an advantage. I want to see what the results will be at the end of the month and draw conclusions. In general, my goal is to profit more than 20 units per month.

Yesterday's result:

1 win
2 losses

-0,72 units

Bank 100,48 units

For today:

13:20 Tipperary - Serious Contender (2.46)
15:40 Tipperary - Daddy Long Legs (2.32)
17:25 Tipperary - Al Arrivee (2.18)

In-Play 15: 40 Tipperary
Backed Daddy Long Legs @ 1.35 down to 1.04
Greened Up @1.18
Greened Up @1.08
Greened Up @1.04 - for a couple of 'coffees' ('London' prices )

[Dogfather]

Guys, one of my horses is a non runner. How does this count, is the money refunded in this case?

[Anbell]

Guys, one of my horses is a non runner. How does this count, is the money refunded in this case?

yes

[GaryCook]

Most of us that have been here awhile have spreadsheets with back testing that works really well on paper. However there is a lot to considering with real trading. Such as overfitting and the psychological stress one can go through while actually executing the trades.

Yesterday I had a 36-1 win by accident as I had a trade on but didn't get out before the dogs started running. Then I had an 8-1 that came in that I meant to back but that was another system I had running at the same time.
Then another 8-1 but I lost my confidence for some ransom reason and didn't back it and that one came in too but I wasn't on it like I should have been.

IE, there is a lot to it that a spreadsheet can't model well.

Don't give up however. You will probably stumble on something when you're least expecting.

I meant 'random reason'. not ransom. Nobody is making me trade don't worry.