Martingale Challenge
I've got little to do while I'm supervising my automation so I'm posting kahin's results prematurely. Don't worry, if they prove to be inaccurate I'll correct them with a full apology. 
This is the result of six months work with the support of a statistician.
KAHIN'S MARTINGALE SYSTEM/ALGORITHM RESULTS
Day 1: £294 profit; Overall: £294 PROFIT
Day 2: £25,500 loss; Overall: £25,206 LOSS
Day 3/4: £20,400 loss; Overall: £45,606 LOSS
If you've still got the funds to keep going kahin, now's a good time to do some backtesting. How would your system have fared on 16 consecutive losers if you "strengthened" it with Fibonacci?
This is the result of six months work with the support of a statistician.
KAHIN'S MARTINGALE SYSTEM/ALGORITHM RESULTS
Day 1: £294 profit; Overall: £294 PROFIT
Day 2: £25,500 loss; Overall: £25,206 LOSS
Day 3/4: £20,400 loss; Overall: £45,606 LOSS
If you've still got the funds to keep going kahin, now's a good time to do some backtesting. How would your system have fared on 16 consecutive losers if you "strengthened" it with Fibonacci?
-
jamesedwards
- Posts: 4494
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
This thread will go down in Bet Angel folklore. Destined for resurrection time and time again. What an incredible run of bad luck for the OP!
He'll either not be back, or he'll be back with round 4 as though nothing has happened.
This thread has made me realise why people believe in the Martingale. When you're playing with imaginary money, there's no pressure, you can lose £25K and start again the next day, after tweaking your system. Lack of skill or willingness to put any effort into understanding the markets is also an attraction to finding a simple way to make a lot of money.
He probably tried creating a martingale tipster service or whatever, by posting on so many forums. The parts about 6 months algo work and data specialists and software support are unlikely to be true 
And of course hopefully the part about putting real money in isn't true either!
It just looks like a low effort attempt to pick out some high scoring matches, which is apparently harder than it looks
And of course hopefully the part about putting real money in isn't true either! It just looks like a low effort attempt to pick out some high scoring matches, which is apparently harder than it looks
-
Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
There is another possibility....
He could be just a troll with nothing better to do other than kick off a 17 page thread on the forum
I know what you're all thinking.. "A troll on the Bet Angel forum, surely not?"
jamesedwards wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:54 pmThis thread will go down in Bet Angel folklore. Destined for resurrection time and time again. What an incredible run of bad luck for the OP!
I wouldn't call it bad luck. He was (bravely, by Martingale standards) going for odds of 3.0 - 4.0, yet doubling his stakes like you would do on roulette!jamesedwards wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:54 pmThis thread will go down in Bet Angel folklore. Destined for resurrection time and time again. What an incredible run of bad luck for the OP!
An average price of 3.5 over 8 selections is only about a 1/14 chance of winning, but he was risking £25K to win £300. Perhaps he doesn't know maths as well as he thought and his supporting statistician was unwell, drinking or not really a statistician so couldn't help him.
-
Realrocknrolla
- Posts: 1910
- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm
Ouch…Derek27 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:05 pmI've got little to do while I'm supervising my automation so I'm posting kahin's results prematurely. Don't worry, if they prove to be inaccurate I'll correct them with a full apology.
This is the result of six months work with the support of a statistician.
KAHIN'S MARTINGALE SYSTEM/ALGORITHM RESULTS
Day 1: £294 profit; Overall: £294 PROFIT
Day 2: £25,500 loss; Overall: £25,206 LOSS
Day 3/4: £20,400 loss; Overall: £45,606 LOSS
If you've still got the funds to keep going kahin, now's a good time to do some backtesting. How would your system have fared on 16 consecutive losers if you "strengthened" it with Fibonacci?
Shall we call a coroner!
I rely on Kai to detect the trolls.Trader Pat wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:09 pmThere is another possibility....
He could be just a troll with nothing better to do other than kick off a 17 page thread on the forum
I know what you're all thinking.. "A troll on the Bet Angel forum, surely not?"
I think it's unlikely a troll would post the same post to at least 5 different sites to see where he can get a reaction. I replied to one of the four posts on the other forums but the last time I looked there was no interest or continuation in any of those discussions, so he came back here.The length of this thread is really a credit to our good nature to quash stupidity, ignorance and greed that can cost people a lot of money, as well as the fact that we all enjoy a good laugh.
-
Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
That was actually a serious comment!!
He posted his guaranteed to doom system to five forums. The other four generally wished him good luck or gave him advice that he needs a big bank as though that would help him succeed, including from forum moderators who should know better. We were the only ones that tried to explain to him why it doesn't work, and at the same time we have to struggle to keep serious.
Derek27 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:47 pmThat was actually a serious comment!!
He posted his guaranteed to doom system to five forums. The other four generally wished him good luck or gave him advice that he needs a big bank as though that would help him succeed, including from forum moderators who should know better. We were the only ones that tried to explain to him why it doesn't work, and at the same time we have to struggle to keep serious.
I hope he didn't commit suicide But you warned him