Loss to Profit and How?

[jimibt]

No, that is opposite to what I was looking for. If Algeria scored (which they did) I would have lost that stake. I was very confident either team would score and the odds had great value.

so in essence, the perfect market would have been to back OU25 - win/win?? no need to trade out (i'd BET (wrong word in this context) that a straight bet on OU25 would have been MUCH better than a temporary high on correct score (3-1 - which incedently is a horrid score when compared to the OU markets as it busts OU25 but doesn't quite satisfy OU45)??

here i go again, BUT - you NEED top analyse all this stuff and go to where the real action is, not where some fanciful notion of what you'd LIKE the score to be (ends up)

[JustLukeYou]

No, that is opposite to what I was looking for. If Algeria scored (which they did) I would have lost that stake. I was very confident either team would score and the odds had great value.

so in essence, the perfect market would have been to back OU25 - win/win?? no need to trade out (i'd BET (wrong word in this context) that a straight bet on OU25 would have been MUCH better than a temporary high on correct score (3-1)??

No because it could have finished 2-2. Plus on Smarkets on small matches there are almost no liquidity for bets like that.

[jimibt]

No, that is opposite to what I was looking for. If Algeria scored (which they did) I would have lost that stake. I was very confident either team would score and the odds had great value.

so in essence, the perfect market would have been to back OU25 - win/win?? no need to trade out (i'd BET (wrong word in this context) that a straight bet on OU25 would have been MUCH better than a temporary high on correct score (3-1)??

No because it could have finished 2-2. Plus on Smarkets on small matches there are almost no liquidity for bets like that.

bingo -that's called backing OU25 (even OU35, on smaller odds)!! win/win.ok, calling it a day, as this is not june the 21st -just feels like it!!

[JustLukeYou]

so in essence, the perfect market would have been to back OU25 - win/win?? no need to trade out (i'd BET (wrong word in this context) that a straight bet on OU25 would have been MUCH better than a temporary high on correct score (3-1)??

No because it could have finished 2-2. Plus on Smarkets on small matches there are almost no liquidity for bets like that.

bingo -that's called backing OU25 (even OU35, on smaller odds)!! win/win

The odds for OU25 was about 1.3. I got 90% profit by trading the correct score.

[Derek27]

This is really a conversation we should all have down the pub after drinking huge quantities - it might all make sense then.

[jimibt]

No because it could have finished 2-2. Plus on Smarkets on small matches there are almost no liquidity for bets like that.

bingo -that's called backing OU25 (even OU35, on smaller odds)!! win/win

The odds for OU25 was about 1.3. I got 90% profit by trading the correct score.

90% is very good... nice one. it could EASILY have gone the other way then, had your gut feel of both teams scoring actually occurred. listen all i'm saying is that there are better ways to party on scores. if you feel that at 2-0 both teams will score, then hit ther OU markets. if you have the patience (this is a BIG issue for you), wait until late in the game and if you've read the match correctly pitch in hard on those OU markets, on the converse side - i.e. lay OU25, even if 2-0, if the action had abated. i could go on, but you get the gist.

[JustLukeYou]

I was waiting for either team to score. Both teams were attacking well.

[jimibt]

This is really a conversation we should all have down the pub after drinking huge quantities - it might all make sense then.

tbh -like all PUB convos, it will never change the world -that said, as (generally) a mediator, would be a fun night out

[JustLukeYou]

The thing is I don't know if 8.5 are regular odds. The may have a very similar match tomorrow and the odds for 3-1 are 5.. When I saw 8.5 they seems to high.

[jimibt]

The thing is I don't know if 8.5 are regular odds. The may have a very similar match tomorrow and the odds for 3-1 are 5.. When I saw 8.5 they seems to high.

so, are you saying (to achieve the 90% profit) that the odds on 3-1 went from 8.5 down to 4.5ish in a short space of time - i.e. faster than the normal decay?

[Kafkaesque]

This is really a conversation we should all have down the pub after drinking huge quantities - it might all make sense then.

Huge quantities, all good and fun. The problem is that someone in this pub conversation hasn't just been drinking, but been to the men's and pretended to be Robbie Fowler.




If anyone doesn't get that reference, either you're

A) Not a football fan......buuuuuh come on now, what's life without footy?
B) Under 30........double buuuuuh.........mostly due to envy, because I wouldn't mind going back Maybe.....

[JustLukeYou]

The thing is I don't know if 8.5 are regular odds. The may have a very similar match tomorrow and the odds for 3-1 are 5.. When I saw 8.5 they seems to high.

so, are you saying (to achieve the 90% profit) that the odds on 3-1 went from 8.5 down to 4.5ish in a short space of time - i.e. faster than the normal decay?

HI,

I'm sorry but I really not sure what you are getting at. I saw real value in those odds, i was convinced another goal would come so I backed it.

[Kai]

I'm sorry but I really not sure what you are getting at.

That's a clear pattern if I ever saw one Luke. I think all your efforts are in vain anyway, since you need to be over 18 to gamble.

[Derek27]

Maybe I'm wrong but looks like I am the only person to share a strategy and to explain it in detail.

Anyone else care to chip in?

This forum, unlike many others I've seen, isn't really about sharing strategies but sharing discussion and tips to help others develop their own trading. Ultimately, everybody's trading follows a unique path.

Instead of buying books about trading have you thought about writing your own? You say you're profitable and have a lot to say about it.

[Derek27]

Poor Mickey's question's getting buried again.

mickey -apologies (AGAIN) -continue... some of us (myself included) forget the rationale behind a thread's OP... my bad, sorry.

Who was the first person to reply to this thread after nearly 2 days trying to help?

I'm really pleased with my strategy last night. It was a frantic game with lots of opportunities at both ends. When Algeria made it 3-0 it made me think instantly that the game was killed off instead of Colombia making it 2-1. If Colombia scored to make it 2-1 I think the odds would have crashed slightly lower which would further increase my profit and give me more chance of getting the full 8.5 odds.

Just because you were the first person to reply to a post, that doesn't give you the right to completely take over the thread. Let's face it, the above comment isn't so much in answer to the OP's question but to boast about what you perceive to be an excellent strategy.