In play Betting Diary Challenge 2022

[Trader Pat]

Largest stake used about £35, smallest £5. Average risk per trade around £15 or so.

Are you aiming for a similiar profit per bet or similiar liability/risk per bet?

If you're not you'll skew the P&L

[Derek27]

Something for anyone who claims I am making bets up:Screenshot (160).png

Only 39 markets in the last 7 days. Not enough football action at the moment. Most bets / trades were placed as I was out and about on my phone betfair app, with virtually no time spent on watching the match apart from two-three instances. Still reasonable profit.

Largest stake used about £35, smallest £5. Average risk per trade around £15 or so.

I'll give you credit for posting your P/L (a P/L doesn't actually prove anything, they're easily edited, but I'm not doubting it), they are good results. You've still got a lot to learn though, if you think people without edges break even.

[gazuty]

And I mean under some kind of hypothesis that the market is efficient in general more or less... not a situation when the market continuously gives an unfair price

When people place bets at random long term they will sometimes hit value bets sometimes not... this will all even out but it might take tens of thousands of trials

Come on do I really need to spell everything out here

Ps under perfectly efficient market people exactly should break even long term

Even if the market were efficient, everyone who came to the exchange would be a long run loser. With a 2% average commission, and a perfectly efficient market the long run expected value of each bet is 0.98 of the efficient market return (ie you are starting behind - you need an edge just to break even).

Because averaging requires hundreds, or better thousands of bets

Let me see a person comes along with a £100 bank and bets £1 radomly - for our experiement this person always bets on odds of 100. So for every 100 bets they can expect to lose 99 times and win 1 once. After every 100 bets they yield 97% of their starting balance (£99 x 0.98). After 1000 bets the expected return is 73% of their starting balance - so they are feeling ok - very likely their account has been well in the positive, assuming the first winner didn't come in at the last roll of the dice. After 10,000 bets the expected return is £0, that bank is blown. In fact, that bank is generally gone (mathematically) from the 2000 bet point in this example.

Sure. But in the end, even when someone doesn't have an edge, I assume they are just going to end break even over a long run. So there's no real risk here.

Dead wrong. Again you need a thought experiment.

There are people on this forum that are profitable year in, year out, year after year. I myself have been profitable for more than 10 years in a row and others have been profitable since the inception of the exchange.

Where did those profits come from? If money was just going around and around I wouldn't be profitable and neither would any other long term participant. Our money would have all been taken by the BF rake.

The statistics show that something like 98% of exchange participants are not profitable and fewer than 2% of participants have made long term profits.

The exchange is not a ferris wheel carnival ride where you are gently returned to your starting point after taking in some of the local sights.

The exchange is much more like Fight Club.

[On_The_Edge]

There are people on this forum that are profitable year in, year out, year after year. I myself have been profitable for more than 10 years in a row and others have been profitable since the inception of the exchange.

Where did those profits come from? If money was just going around and around I wouldn't be profitable and neither would any other long term participant. Our money would have all been taken by the BF rake.

The statistics show that something like 98% of exchange participants are not profitable and fewer than 2% of participants have made long term profits.

I'd say that a bulk of the profits come from people (a) had no sensible staking plan / made bad emotional decisions regardless if they had an edge or not, (b) or did not place enough trades for their losses and profits to average out , or gave up too quickly, (c) people / bookies deliberately "trying" to lose, i.e. offload their positions, or (d) people consistently taking "bad" odds without realising it (I guess something like acca , although that's typically what mug punters do at bookmakers).

To me it seems like out of 98% of those who are not profitable, a substantial part will either break even or become profitable once they rectify (a) and (b) above; if they are truly betting at random, they should break even. If they are consistently finding value - then profit. I am not considering (d) - I'd imagine for such people expected value is negative as standard.

This is disregarding commission of course to simplify things.

[On_The_Edge]

Largest stake used about £35, smallest £5. Average risk per trade around £15 or so.

Are you aiming for a similiar profit per bet or similiar liability/risk per bet?

If you're not you'll skew the P&L

Risk / liability is somewhat proportional to the odds... So above I'd use say £35 if backing at 1.5, or liability of £5 if laying at 1.1.

[On_The_Edge]

Sunday Jan 30: 4 / 4 markets profitable today.

[On_The_Edge]

Mon 31 Jan: 2022 Got out too early from my position at PSG vs Nice. Reasonable profit though.

[On_The_Edge]

Tempted to start scaling up soon.

[Derek27]

I just happened to be watching this tonight and it immediately reminded me of this thread.

https://ok.ru/video/3020982586036?fromTime=50

[On_The_Edge]

I just happened to be watching this tonight and it immediately reminded me of this thread.

https://ok.ru/video/3020982586036?fromTime=50

I never seen it before but seems quite worth a watch

[On_The_Edge]

Have an open position at Lyon vs Marseille live at the moment. Increased stakes somewhat.

[On_The_Edge]

Tues 1 Feb: Another green at Lyon.

[plasteredric]

I just happened to be watching this tonight and it immediately reminded me of this thread.

https://ok.ru/video/3020982586036?fromTime=50

[Derek27]

I just happened to be watching this tonight and it immediately reminded me of this thread.

https://ok.ru/video/3020982586036?fromTime=50

Chris Barrie's playing OTE, Craig Charles is playing me, Danny-John Jules plays Gazuty.

What is so meaningless about what I wrote?

Ask yourself this - is there anything meaningful in what you wrote. As Derek has neatly shown, your bet history is not interesting

You may not find it interesting. Someone else might.

[On_The_Edge]

Laid Real Sociedad earlier today before kick off. Worked out pretty well