Farcical!!! - Manipulation of Betfair odds

[Bet Angel]

I've sort of stopped updating the thread as there are so many nowadays. But this one is interesting as the horse overshot the start and really should have drifted. I think I agree with Andy now that there are clear value opportunties occuring because of the this activity.

100811 - 1755 - Tae Kwon Do - Overshoots start.png

[Bet Angel]

A lot of manipulation going on at York, it's caused the fill rate to slow to a trickle. Took a full four minutes on that last race to get something filled.

[Zenyatta]

Next at York, 'Rip van Winkle' is back in form and by far the highest rated horse in the field, I vividly remember him challenging 'Sea The Stars' hard. He should destroy this field. You'll get more money today simply by taking a straight win punt than any trading. Trust me.

GOTCHA! Trade on that!

[oddstrader]

Well done

[rhysmr2]

I wish I did put a straight bet on Rip van winkle, I ended up £60 down on that race, I don't know how people trade these big meetings, the market just seemed to get pushed around in no particular trend.

[oddstrader]

i found it the same ! surprising reverse's at times

[Melsey]

This manipulation does start to get tedious...! I wonder if the turnover per race goes down?

Personally find I end up scratching a lot more trades and when I do get a good entry the market, other traders are reluctant to 'jump on' as I guess everyone trading larger swings is concerned about a sudden reversal...

Head down, and just grind another day out I guess, can't help but find that this manipulation is almost taking the fun out of it though...

[Bet Angel]

This guy is on pretty much every race today and more often than not on more than one runner. The odd thing is that the trade appears to be imbalanced and there is no effort to exit by the off. Very weird.

We've got a bot tracking it now but the mechanics of the trade, if it is that, doesn't seem to make any sense?

[andyfuller]

Yes they seemed very active today and quite annoying tbh. Seemed to spoil quite a few markets I felt.

[Bet Angel]

Yes they spoiled a lot, I just couldn't get a decent trade away today and ended up about a grand lower than on the same day last year.

[andyfuller]

ended up about a grand lower than on the same day last year.

Fingers crossed that they aren't around all week!

[rhysmr2]

York felt impossible to me, I had a £300 losing day

[hgodden]

I think its a team that's doing this and to a certain extent on most races using many different strategies, part using bots, part manually. In order to control one price successfully you'd need to control most of the prices, and I don't think anyone could do this on their own. I also think they have an in house handicapper and are happy to take on liability on certain runners at certain prices that they deem as being value, generally if you just stick 30k on either side of the spread you will be matched far more on the lay side so there will always be an inbalance on this kind of activity. That, coupled with the size of their bank makes it impossible to fight against. General manipulation has been going on for many many years, people who were trading on betfair used to say how easy it was in the early days before the markets suddenly changed.

I know a lot of people complain about this (me too when I'm outfoxed by it lol)... I even heard one trader is considering going to the media with the story (I can't see it being much of a story, similar things happen all the time in the city, unless maybe it was betfair trading their own exchange!) but this kind of thing is inevitable in any trading market. I'd do it myself if I had the skill and a spare million or two in the bank!

The thing that really makes me laugh is the impact of this kind of thing on the wider betting market. The way that the on course guys and the bookies follow the exchange prices means that at times this manipulation is making a sizeable difference to the prices the bookies are offering. Some people say that the bookies manipulate the prices on betfair so maybe they have a hand in things? Who knows. All I know is I'm starting to sound like that guy off the x files, thats what happens when you spend too much time staring at betfair!

[andyfuller]

No let up today - the fav normally would have drifted a couple of ticks there I would have expected as it didn't look keen to go in the stalls but then up pops £68,000 on the back side to stop it moving

[Bet Angel]

The thing I don't understand is why are orders being taken to the off with all the risk that implies? I can't can't fathom why somebody would do that. It's not going to SP either?