US Presidential Election 2024

[ForFolksSake]

In other news, gun shops in the USA are recording record sales of firearms and ammunition with large queues outside their shops.

Not really surprising as the above happens every election cycle. Normally Republican voters think if the Democrats win then they will attempt restrictions.

But like I said many times, presidents can change, if their party doesn’t win the senate then whoever sits in the White House really doesn’t have that much power.

It’s going to be fun watching this. Really hope Orange Man doesn’t win as he very likely to screw Labour in the UK, Mexico and Canada, plus Europe, Ukraine etc.

No different to David Cameron screwing the EU with Brexit ref.
What goes round, comes round.

[Derek27]

Don't be obscure.
The market say's Trump will win. Perhaps you are trading as the market changes. Fair enough. If however you are looking at the final outcome Trump is going to win.

Don't you understand betting? A 62% chance doesn't mean he's going to win!!

But more likely than 2.6?

"More likely" <> "going to win"

[jimibt]

Don't you understand betting? A 62% chance doesn't mean he's going to win!!

But more likely than 2.6?

"More likely" <> "going to win"

i prefer !=

[Archery1969]

But more likely than 2.6?

"More likely" <> "going to win"

i prefer !=

Trust you Jim.

[greenmark]

1.62 is more likely correct than 2.58 isn't it?
Cards on the table I hate Trump, a Trump win would dismay me but the odds say a Trump win surely?

[Archery1969]

1.62 is more likely correct than 2.58 isn't it?
Cards on the table I hate Trump, a Trump win would dismay me but the odds say a Trump win surely?

I lost a small fortune backing horses < 1.70.

[Derek27]

Trump thinks a good computer should declare the results of the election before the votes even come in. And he's running for presidency!!

[Derek27]

1.62 is more likely correct than 2.58 isn't it?
Cards on the table I hate Trump, a Trump win would dismay me but the odds say a Trump win surely?

More likely, but not guaranteed to win!!

Given that most of the polls think it's a toss-up, if they are accurate, 2.6 for Harris sounds like a good bet.

[Archery1969]

1.62 is more likely correct than 2.58 isn't it?
Cards on the table I hate Trump, a Trump win would dismay me but the odds say a Trump win surely?

More likely, but not guaranteed to win!!

Given that most of the polls think it's a toss-up, if they are accurate, 2.6 for Harris sounds like a good bet.

That’s the point I was trying to make awhile ago. The pollsters are using really sophisticated modelling tools these days. I don’t understand Harris being 2.6 if it’s a toss up.

In one sense it should be like Man City v Liverpool, both at the height of their games, everyone fit, playing at neutral stadium, Wembley.

How would you price that up, would you put one on 2.6 ?

[Emmson]

Villu Vidla still thinks Kamala wins.

https://x.com/VVeedla/status/1853871358419030019

[henbet22]

The final ABC News/Ipsos poll before Election Day, released on Sunday, found the gender gap among all likely voters to be 16 points. Harris had a 11-point advantage among women, 53% to 42%, while Trump had a 5-point advantage among men, 50% to 45%.

Popular vote 1.32

[Archery1969]

Really can’t see how on earth Harris doesn’t win.

[greenmark]

Really can’t see how on earth Harris doesn’t win.

Why do you think that?

The market is saying the opposite.

[Archery1969]

Really can’t see how on earth Harris doesn’t win.

Why do you think that?

The market is saying the opposite.

The market is totally out of sync with pollsters modelling.

[jimibt]

watched a docu last night (c4) where Trump insisted - (on 2020 election) that when you PRESS Trump, it automatically registered a Biden vote.

I mean - where can you go from that!!??

He said, the CHIP does it -i don't know how they do it, but the CHIP does it -argh...