US Presidential Election 2024

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

This is a worrying read….

It's hard to say what it's going to mean for us now," a senior government figure told me. "There will be trade implications, but it's not clear whether they will be flat tariffs that spark a trade war with China in which we all feel the pain or mildly protectionist stuff, which the US has been doing for years.

"In the nightmare trade scenario of huge tariffs... if this happens, this is going to make Brexit feel like a papercut."
For the UK, outside of the EU and dealing with China and the US, tariffs could be particularly acute and cause difficulties domestically.

As a big trading nation, tariffs would have big inflationary effects on goods.

"It would have a big impact on how we have to face China and Europe and creates retaliatory trade wars," one person familiar with the scenario planning said.

It forces us to choose. Do we face more to America, do we face more to China?

"We are exposed as a trading nation as we are relatively little between the bloc of the EU, China and the US. So we will be disproportionately affected and we don't have big friends to buddy up to, so we will be squeezed."

It's also not clear how flat tariffs tie into the much-lauded post-Brexit trade deal that Trump was once keen on but President Biden was not.

The Labour government for now are unclear how this might be revisited, or whether they want it to be, in the light of both Trump's protectionism and the Labour red lines on opening up the NHS to private pharma or agriculture to imports of genetically modified products.

The prospect of punitive tariffs to force the UK to the table is the very opposite of what the government wants.
However, could there be some middle ground?

One government official argues there could be scope for cooperation on security or technology that is different to a full-fat trade deal.

There is some hope that the deal maker Trump might be open to such tie-ups.
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Kai
Posts: 7070
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

greenmark wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:01 pm
Kai wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 3:24 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 3:10 pm
So, it seems Trump is now in the same camp as diplomats, Putin and the King of England. ie. Above the law.
If he's pals with Vlad and Kim etc, doesn't this lower the chance for WW3 and stuff?
So 3 nutters at the top of society having a cuddle is a good thing?
They happen to be the biggest nutters in their respective countries, so no problem there.

"keep your friends close and your enemies closer" perhaps?
Why not, you always say you want everyone at the same table.

Isn't that Elon's angle anyway? Finding a common language instead of choosing sides and stoking the fire and fuelling division, end of the day someone has to see the bigger picture and try to be the responsible adult. He's got bigger fish to fry out there and far greater challenges than simply staying the richest man in the world.
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ForFolksSake
Posts: 869
Joined: Sat May 11, 2024 2:51 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:34 pm
This is a worrying read….

It's hard to say what it's going to mean for us now," a senior government figure told me. "There will be trade implications, but it's not clear whether they will be flat tariffs that spark a trade war with China in which we all feel the pain or mildly protectionist stuff, which the US has been doing for years.

"In the nightmare trade scenario of huge tariffs... if this happens, this is going to make Brexit feel like a papercut."
For the UK, outside of the EU and dealing with China and the US, tariffs could be particularly acute and cause difficulties domestically.

As a big trading nation, tariffs would have big inflationary effects on goods.

"It would have a big impact on how we have to face China and Europe and creates retaliatory trade wars," one person familiar with the scenario planning said.

It forces us to choose. Do we face more to America, do we face more to China?

"We are exposed as a trading nation as we are relatively little between the bloc of the EU, China and the US. So we will be disproportionately affected and we don't have big friends to buddy up to, so we will be squeezed."

It's also not clear how flat tariffs tie into the much-lauded post-Brexit trade deal that Trump was once keen on but President Biden was not.

The Labour government for now are unclear how this might be revisited, or whether they want it to be, in the light of both Trump's protectionism and the Labour red lines on opening up the NHS to private pharma or agriculture to imports of genetically modified products.

The prospect of punitive tariffs to force the UK to the table is the very opposite of what the government wants.
However, could there be some middle ground?

One government official argues there could be scope for cooperation on security or technology that is different to a full-fat trade deal.

There is some hope that the deal maker Trump might be open to such tie-ups.
We are in big, big sh*t 💩
Michael5482
Posts: 1693
Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:11 pm

Anything that happens isn't the fault of Trump and what he does or doesn't decide it'll be the fault of both Labour & Tory politicians for the managed decline and absolutely trashing of our industry making us more susceptible to external factors outside of our control.

I seen news on a debate yesterday on UK fishing, we have an abundance of fish around our shores but tie all pour fisherman's hands so were a net importer of fish, that is stupidity right there just shows you how docile our politicians really are.

Trump will do what he believes is right for America I have no issue with that, nor should anyone outside of America.
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ForFolksSake
Posts: 869
Joined: Sat May 11, 2024 2:51 pm

BMW profits plunge 80pc as Chinese demand crashes

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have brought out a wide range of fully electric vehicles, including many that sell for under £10,000, with companies also competing against each other to offer various high-tech features

As it emerged that Donald Trump had won the US election, analysts have said BMW and its rivals may be headed for more turmoil.

The Republican president has threatened to impose tariffs on foreign-made cars, a move that some fear will set off tit-for-tat measures with Europe and China. 🚗
Last edited by ForFolksSake on Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:38 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

ForFolksSake wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:27 pm
BMW profits plunge 80pc as Chinese demand crashes

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have brought out a wide range of fully electric vehicles, including many that sell for under £10,000, with companies also competing against each other to offer various high-tech features

As it emerged that Donald Trump had won the US election, analysts BMW and its rivals may be headed for more turmoil.

The Republican president-elect has threatened to impose tariffs on foreign-made cars, a move that some fear will set off tit-for-tat measures with Europe and China. 🚗
Yep, because of costs, you could well see British car manufacturing killed off in the UK.

The UK will be stuck in the middle of any trade war. Tariffs from USA, China and EU.

The UK maybe be forced to deal with China which would be madness given what the head of M16 recently said.

I think Labour can forget about their policy of growing the UK economy. I suspect by the end of this parliament the majority of people will be allot poorer.
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ForFolksSake
Posts: 869
Joined: Sat May 11, 2024 2:51 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:35 pm
ForFolksSake wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:27 pm
BMW profits plunge 80pc as Chinese demand crashes

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have brought out a wide range of fully electric vehicles, including many that sell for under £10,000, with companies also competing against each other to offer various high-tech features

As it emerged that Donald Trump had won the US election, analysts BMW and its rivals may be headed for more turmoil.

The Republican president-elect has threatened to impose tariffs on foreign-made cars, a move that some fear will set off tit-for-tat measures with Europe and China. 🚗
Yep, because of costs, you could well see British car manufacturing killed off in the UK.

The UK will be stuck in the middle of any trade war. Tariffs from USA, China and EU.

The UK maybe be forced to deal with China which would be madness given what the head of M16 recently said.

I think Labour can forget about their policy of growing the UK economy. I suspect by the end of this parliament the majority of people will be allot poorer.
I wonder how this may affect Land Rover - largest export regions being North America, Mainland Europe, and China. These regions account for 60% of all export sales?
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

ForFolksSake wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:38 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:35 pm
ForFolksSake wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:27 pm
BMW profits plunge 80pc as Chinese demand crashes

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have brought out a wide range of fully electric vehicles, including many that sell for under £10,000, with companies also competing against each other to offer various high-tech features

As it emerged that Donald Trump had won the US election, analysts BMW and its rivals may be headed for more turmoil.

The Republican president-elect has threatened to impose tariffs on foreign-made cars, a move that some fear will set off tit-for-tat measures with Europe and China. 🚗
Yep, because of costs, you could well see British car manufacturing killed off in the UK.

The UK will be stuck in the middle of any trade war. Tariffs from USA, China and EU.

The UK maybe be forced to deal with China which would be madness given what the head of M16 recently said.

I think Labour can forget about their policy of growing the UK economy. I suspect by the end of this parliament the majority of people will be allot poorer.
I wonder how this may affect Land Rover - largest export regions being North America, Mainland Europe, and China. These regions account for 60% of all export sales?
Could be carnage.
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

My god, look at the US election state map. If Trump wins NV, AZ and NE then it’s going to look like the red devils map.
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ForFolksSake
Posts: 869
Joined: Sat May 11, 2024 2:51 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:43 pm
ForFolksSake wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:38 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:35 pm


Yep, because of costs, you could well see British car manufacturing killed off in the UK.

The UK will be stuck in the middle of any trade war. Tariffs from USA, China and EU.

The UK maybe be forced to deal with China which would be madness given what the head of M16 recently said.

I think Labour can forget about their policy of growing the UK economy. I suspect by the end of this parliament the majority of people will be allot poorer.
I wonder how this may affect Land Rover - largest export regions being North America, Mainland Europe, and China. These regions account for 60% of all export sales?
Could be carnage.
China sources most of its electricity ( 60% ) from coal. ⚡

The UK led the world in coal mining until some f*cking stupid woman closed all the UK's coal mines about 40 years ago

YCMIU
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

ForFolksSake wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:59 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:43 pm
ForFolksSake wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:38 pm


I wonder how this may affect Land Rover - largest export regions being North America, Mainland Europe, and China. These regions account for 60% of all export sales?
Could be carnage.
China sources most of its electricity ( 60% ) from coal.

The UK led the world in coal mining until some f*cking stupid woman closed all the UK's coal mines about 40 years ago

YCMIU
Plus don’t forget if there is a trade war and the EU/UK puts tariffs on US goods then Trump might turn around and say “We leaving NATO”. I doubt the EU/UK can afford to fund the extra $967 Billion between them. Then Putin and China will take the further piss etc.
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ForFolksSake
Posts: 869
Joined: Sat May 11, 2024 2:51 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:35 pm
ForFolksSake wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:27 pm
BMW profits plunge 80pc as Chinese demand crashes

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have brought out a wide range of fully electric vehicles, including many that sell for under £10,000, with companies also competing against each other to offer various high-tech features

As it emerged that Donald Trump had won the US election, analysts BMW and its rivals may be headed for more turmoil.

The Republican president-elect has threatened to impose tariffs on foreign-made cars, a move that some fear will set off tit-for-tat measures with Europe and China. 🚗
Yep, because of costs, you could well see British car manufacturing killed off in the UK.

The UK will be stuck in the middle of any trade war. Tariffs from USA, China and EU.

The UK maybe be forced to deal with China which would be madness given what the head of M16 recently said.

I think Labour can forget about their policy of growing the UK economy. I suspect by the end of this parliament the majority of people will be allot poorer.
The only thing growing in the UK economy is 'illegal' immigration

Almost all Channel migrants arrive in UK without passports
Where ever they have come from they have got no intention of going back, that's for sure

How are you getting on with 'smashing' the gangs, Yvette
greenmark
Posts: 6266
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Kai wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 6:06 pm
greenmark wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:01 pm
Kai wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 3:24 pm


If he's pals with Vlad and Kim etc, doesn't this lower the chance for WW3 and stuff?
So 3 nutters at the top of society having a cuddle is a good thing?
They happen to be the biggest nutters in their respective countries, so no problem there.

"keep your friends close and your enemies closer" perhaps?
Why not, you always say you want everyone at the same table.

Isn't that Elon's angle anyway? Finding a common language instead of choosing sides and stoking the fire and fuelling division, end of the day someone has to see the bigger picture and try to be the responsible adult. He's got bigger fish to fry out there and far greater challenges than simply staying the richest man in the world.
Why not indeed. While squabbling they might actually formulate an idea that works for them/us all.
My cynicism is all 3 are egotistical wazzocks that clearly don't care about the people they govern.
They are more likely to swap notes about where to buy the best superyacht.
Archery1969
Posts: 4478
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

ForFolksSake wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 8:08 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:35 pm
ForFolksSake wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:27 pm
BMW profits plunge 80pc as Chinese demand crashes

Chinese manufacturers such as BYD have brought out a wide range of fully electric vehicles, including many that sell for under £10,000, with companies also competing against each other to offer various high-tech features

As it emerged that Donald Trump had won the US election, analysts BMW and its rivals may be headed for more turmoil.

The Republican president-elect has threatened to impose tariffs on foreign-made cars, a move that some fear will set off tit-for-tat measures with Europe and China. 🚗
Yep, because of costs, you could well see British car manufacturing killed off in the UK.

The UK will be stuck in the middle of any trade war. Tariffs from USA, China and EU.

The UK maybe be forced to deal with China which would be madness given what the head of M16 recently said.

I think Labour can forget about their policy of growing the UK economy. I suspect by the end of this parliament the majority of people will be allot poorer.
The only thing growing in the UK economy is 'illegal' immigration

Almost all Channel migrants arrive in UK without passports
Where ever they have come from they have got no intention of going back, that's for sure

How are you getting on with 'smashing' the gangs, Yvette
You can’t smash the gangs if they operating from Turkey. Most B of the migrants are coming from Afghanistan, Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, North Korea, Somalia, and Syria. Good luck trying to send them back if those countries refuse the plans landing.
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

Still can't get my head around a nation of 335 million electing a raving lunatic as president.
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